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Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#131

Post by tomp »

WilliamEdward wrote: post #68
tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

But there is obviously a pandemic. I mean the WHO just called it a pandemic. How is 1) even an option? Do they just pretend it doesn't exist? Do they hope it doesn't kill too many people? People wont buy it, that's for sure.

I'm talking from the perspective of 1-2 months ago. Now it's too late for any preventive action anyways.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#132

Post by JediWing »

duckMuppet wrote: post #87
rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark did close every school and most administrations. France did not. Many decisions can be taken, but are not (for various reasons). Most experts recommend to limit contacts rather than closing down borders, and no one is pretending to stop the virus but they all should try to flatten the curve. You don't seem to pay attention to the current situation.

The fact that they refuse to do things like closing borders and immediately ceasing all travel by foreigners or citizens who've traveled traveled abroad meanwhile ending arbitrary social events is the reason you know it's hype up media nonsense. Most of the actions taken are those most likely not affecting those in the target older or immuno-compromised demographic likely to have the serious consequences. https://omn…

Is that why now two countries have had mass quarantines?

It's a balancing act between lowering infections/death and economic impact.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#133

Post by C1sc0cat »

jaynetics wrote: post #112
jcadam wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also in the case of 4a it's hard to define "it works." Because it's hard to know to what degree any actions taken mitigated the severity of the pandemic.

Is it? Just compare countries with similar properties that took measures at different points in time. Japan and Germany might not be the best to compare here, but consider: Japan, schools closed etc. at 200 cases. 8 days later: 400 cases. Germany, no action whatsoever at 200 cases, 8 days later: 1600 cases.

Japan is an island, Germany is in the Schengen area and has lots of travellers to and from Italy and other European countries

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#134

Post by numpad0 »

First: SARS-CoV-2 is the virus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome-CoronaVirus-2. COVID-19 is COronaVIrus Disease-2019 which is the disease caused by CoV-2.

Second: Flattening the curve isn't about shortening any duration.

The Y axis is the number of infected.

In the Red Line scenario, like packets overflowing a buffer, patients above the dashed line will (have to) be medically neglected. Rest assured, our immune system will eventually gain the upper hand, the virus will eventually decides its job done, red line settles, we'll congratulate the lucky few who won scarce beds at surviving hospitals, as well as those who treated themselves next to remains of deceased hospital staffs. Then we will assemble at rubble of our cities and start walking towards the former glory of human civilization up until 2020(hyper exaggeration).

The Blue Line, "Flattening the curve", lets us avoid that apocalyptic situation: by boldly suppressing infection early on and spreading it out to a longer duration, ignoring economical disaster ensuing, no patient will be left behind. The hope is that by allowing every patients to be semi-adequately treated WHEN infected(not IF infected), total population of alive and recovered combined at the end of this pandemic at maybe late 2022 or so is going to be far better than the Red Line scenario. So we'd want to flatten the curve.

Green, is just a pipe dream. Makes no sense. If that's possible we might as well get production back up full over in China.

I think there's an important, sub-vocally communicated notion: the containment had failed long ago, and there is an ongoing pandemic. Many stays asymptomatic, some experience manageable illness, some would need to stay at ICUs, around 0.5-1% life will be lost, but we will all(~70%) get infected. Ideas that requires or aims at containing infection or isolating infected few are useless. We must all accept that almost all of us are situationally required to "schedule" an infection, and fortunately, exact time, place or severity of it is left to our discretion.

We must be aware of these facts, and must use it to our maximum advantage, starting from washing hands often.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#135

Post by robertofmoria »

Or government is acting according to the threat it poses. It has been three months now since it has moved globally. Likely longer actually. This isn't a plague killing everyone in its wake. It is the newest Y2k, 2012, Bird Flu, or Global warming hysteria push by governments and the media. Look at news from China, they are using it to be more in control except now with support. This going to blow over with little interuptions due to the virus itself. I bet more deaths arise from lack of service due to people inundating the ERs with negative cases than the virus causes.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#136

Post by C1sc0cat »

lm28469 wrote: post #47
rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark did close every school and most administrations. France did not. Many decisions can be taken, but are not (for various reasons). Most experts recommend to limit contacts rather than closing down borders, and no one is pretending to stop the virus but they all should try to flatten the curve. You don't seem to pay attention to the current situation.

It also depends on the country's government. Afaik in Germany the country's government can't force schools to close or public events to be cancelled. These decisions have to be taken locally (at state/city or even district level). All the health ministry can do is tell people "you shouldn't do A B C and you should do X Y Z"

They haven't got laws on the books to do this? - the UK Passed some enabling legislation in Jan I believe

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#137

Post by BiteCode_dev »

germinalphrase wrote: post #119
BiteCode_dev wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Besides, it's a lose/lose proposition for the gov anyway. If they do act, people will blame them for the cost of the action. If they don't, people will blame then for the cost of not acting. Nobody will pat them on the back, except a few intellectuals, for acting. In fact, economically, the virus spreading is an opportunity to fire people you couldn't fire before, get rid of an old population costing money a…

The natural human instinct is to look to leadership during a crisis. This is why Bush’s competency in the eyes of the public was harmed after Katrina. This is why McCain’s “maverick” rep harmed him against “steady” Obama during the financial crisis. If the coronavirus starts impacting the lives of Americans in a widespread manner (shuddered schools, closed offices, loss of jobs), the same instinct will kick in.

Given what the current POTUS has gotten away with, as with many others in power everywhere, I don't have much faith in the accountability we can expect.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#138

Post by Udik »

mtsr wrote: post #106
Udik wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, but I live in the Netherlands (as an expat) and their approach to healthcare is legendary for its sloppiness. The most common joke is about doctors responding to any health complaint by handing some paracetamol and saying "come back in two weeks if you don't feel better". Three days ago the government held a special meeting about the coronavirus, in which they deliberated that people should stop shaking…

Nevertheless health care outcomes on average are pretty good, if you look at things like life expectancy...

I'm not saying healthcare is bad ("sloppiness" wasn't a good choice of a term). In fact it's very well organised.

It's more that the Dutch seem to be extremely... relaxed, maybe a bit fatalistic, about illness. It's a "suck it up" attitude. The fact that they're so slow in taking action now doesn't surprise me.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#139

Post by a_diplomat »

This is just not correct. Governments are acting on this throughout the world. Don't conflate governments with politicians. For well-functioning states, state agencies are dealing with this through well-established protocols that don't need political clearence. This means that the countries where politicians are the most visible and calling for action could very well be the ones that have prepared the least.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#140

Post by jaynetics »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #88
nhumrich wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Potentially, yes. But, only if by being infected, it would mean you were now immune, which isn't the case with covid-19. Reinfections have happened.

Is there any evidence of that at scale or is it just the odd anecdote?

Probably little evidence for Covid-19, but for SARS, studies in animals have found limited immunity after both infections and vaccination attempts. https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_1
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