Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

ma.ttias.be

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 436 posts

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#121

Post by ryanmercer »

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

This is a fantastic, and wholly plausible, explanation best summed up as "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#122

Post by olau »

lm28469 wrote: post #47
rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark did close every school and most administrations. France did not. Many decisions can be taken, but are not (for various reasons). Most experts recommend to limit contacts rather than closing down borders, and no one is pretending to stop the virus but they all should try to flatten the curve. You don't seem to pay attention to the current situation.

It also depends on the country's government. Afaik in Germany the country's government can't force schools to close or public events to be cancelled. These decisions have to be taken locally (at state/city or even district level). All the health ministry can do is tell people "you shouldn't do A B C and you should do X Y Z"

No, that's not the real reason.

In the places where they have shut down schools, they can't really do it either. But when government says "do X" and has good reasons, the institutions comply. I'm in the board of a private institution in a country with a shutdown order, and there was really no discussion between the board members that this institution would shut down too, despite there being no legal backing at all.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#123

Post by kalleboo »

dexen wrote: post #35
davedx wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is always the slowest country to act, and its citizens would feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted. Sounds about right. Belgium and the Netherlands aren't doing very much yet. One interesting fact I discovered when discussing with my wife last night that I think does shape the discussion here: In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's mo…

>In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's more like 0.1%. (I'm not a healthcare professional nor actuarian; the following is freehand speculation) There are two key factors. Firstly, USA is much less densely populated, with various additional compounding aspects: social stratification, with many segments of society living mostly in their own areas, and lesser dependence on mas…

> The former has more incentives to be proactive and minimize costs

On an individual basis perhaps in theory, but not on a population basis. See underinsured people afraid to go to a doctor until their condition is so bad it warrants an ER visit.

The actual numbers of the cost-effectiveness of US healthcare also shows the complete opposite of "minimizing costs" where it's twice as expensive as any other system

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#124

Post by warpspin »

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

> (i.e. their action was "correct" but not "correct enough") because their neighboring countries (e.g. Germany - not technically a neighbor but within Schengen Zone) failed to act.

The Italian cluster most likely stems from an initial infection in Germany which occurred 10 days before the first flight bans anywhere. Italy probably failed, because it reduced testing to only include symptomatic cases at a critical time ( https://www.adnkronos.com/fatti/cronaca/2020/02/27/coronavir... ), not because Germany did not disallow flights at a time where it was already community spreading in Europe.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#125

Post by hef19898 »

_jal wrote: post #103
tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

> So, politicians choose (1), no action, as the most likely winning scenario. I have serious doubts about this model, but will play along. What explains: (a) The exceptions - some countries are acting and doing well. Others are doing better after a delay. (b) Past, more aggressive actions - many countries, the US included, have responded much more quickly and competently to acute disease crises.

Just that the majority if governments in Europe are taking steps, pretty radical ones at that. For no other pandemic, SARS, MERS, various flus or Ebola was anything even near to what's done now.

I wouldn't like to be the one to meet the decision, so. Because the cost of closing down a country for a couple of weeks is enormous. So when do put these actions in place? I have no idea, but it seems to be pretty difficult to get the timing right.

There is no point in crying wolf over these actions online, or even worse about what should have been done in hindsight. There are whole staffs doing nothing else right now, experts in their respective fields. So the best we, as a public, can do right now is to get out of these people's way. We follow guidelines like washing hands and reducing contact. We go self quarantine. We take steps we can in our social and professional environment. We send our employees into WFH or close certain cites if that's not possible. We work with authorities to come up with plans and contingencies if our companies are relevant in that regard.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#126

Post by BiteCode_dev »

peterburkimsher wrote: post #114
BiteCode_dev wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Besides, it's a lose/lose proposition for the gov anyway. If they do act, people will blame them for the cost of the action. If they don't, people will blame then for the cost of not acting. Nobody will pat them on the back, except a few intellectuals, for acting. In fact, economically, the virus spreading is an opportunity to fire people you couldn't fire before, get rid of an old population costing money a…

At the risk of being down-voted, I'm not trying to start a political debate. I'd just like to know, as someone outside the USA, how this is affecting the election campaigns there. Are personal costs of the pandemic encouraging people to support subsidised healthcare, and therefore a left-wing party? Or is the xenophobic rhetoric of "blame China/Europe/travellers/etc" causing people to support a right-wing party? I al…

I'm not in the US either.

I see a lot of what you mention on online mediums.

But it's usually quite different than what's really happening IRL.

People love to play the panic game online, but I've seen only quiet order around me.

Yesterday, my entire neighborhood has been evacuated because of a bomb, we were all grouped in an hospital, where we were questioned about possible fever.

In airports, I see people wearing masks, facing cancelled flights. I see stores with huge queues to buy stock of food.

It all happens in a calm and civil manner.

Maybe I'm optimistic, but I'm nicely surprised by the way people act right now, despite all the blame we want to place.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#127

Post by C1sc0cat »

germinalphrase wrote: post #119
BiteCode_dev wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Besides, it's a lose/lose proposition for the gov anyway. If they do act, people will blame them for the cost of the action. If they don't, people will blame then for the cost of not acting. Nobody will pat them on the back, except a few intellectuals, for acting. In fact, economically, the virus spreading is an opportunity to fire people you couldn't fire before, get rid of an old population costing money a…

The natural human instinct is to look to leadership during a crisis. This is why Bush’s competency in the eyes of the public was harmed after Katrina. This is why McCain’s “maverick” rep harmed him against “steady” Obama during the financial crisis. If the coronavirus starts impacting the lives of Americans in a widespread manner (shuddered schools, closed offices, loss of jobs), the same instinct will kick in.

And the economy

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#129

Post by soyyo »

Last Sunday it was 8th of March, International Women's Day, and the current spanish government has appropriated it to the point that women from other political parties are not welcomed in the protests that happen that day.

When gatherings of people started to be canceled all around the world, the government kept going ahead with the plans because this is a key event for their agenda.

The very next day, they acknowledged that the virus is out of control in several regions in Spain, started to take very aggressive measures that are only increasing each day.

Today, it has been announced that Irene Montero, head of the women rights ministry, that lead the main protest that day, has tested positive for coronavirus.

Stupidity at its finest

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#130

Post by bluGill »

peterburkimsher wrote: post #114
BiteCode_dev wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. Besides, it's a lose/lose proposition for the gov anyway. If they do act, people will blame them for the cost of the action. If they don't, people will blame then for the cost of not acting. Nobody will pat them on the back, except a few intellectuals, for acting. In fact, economically, the virus spreading is an opportunity to fire people you couldn't fire before, get rid of an old population costing money a…

At the risk of being down-voted, I'm not trying to start a political debate. I'd just like to know, as someone outside the USA, how this is affecting the election campaigns there. Are personal costs of the pandemic encouraging people to support subsidised healthcare, and therefore a left-wing party? Or is the xenophobic rhetoric of "blame China/Europe/travellers/etc" causing people to support a right-wing party? I al…

Most people do not see any personal cost of healthcare and thus are not turning more left-wing. The left-wing party is pushing that view, but they are not changing anybodies mind.

Similar for the right wing.

Post reply on HN