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Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

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Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#71

Post by DailyHN »

tda wrote: post #33

Just a little thought experiment: If the current wisdom is actually that almost everyone will be infected eventually, wouldn't it (ignoring any ethical issues) be wiser to deliberately infect medical personnel as soon as possible, so the 5-10% of infected that need IC treatment can actually get it, before the medical system is overrun by the infected general population. In a few weeks, all doctors are immune (or dece…

There is a chance people can get the virus a second time. Though, cases of reoccurrence may have been due to human error.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#72

Post by cerebellum42 »

lm28469 wrote: post #47
rcMgD2BwE72F wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denmark did close every school and most administrations. France did not. Many decisions can be taken, but are not (for various reasons). Most experts recommend to limit contacts rather than closing down borders, and no one is pretending to stop the virus but they all should try to flatten the curve. You don't seem to pay attention to the current situation.

It also depends on the country's government. Afaik in Germany the country's government can't force schools to close or public events to be cancelled. These decisions have to be taken locally (at state/city or even district level). All the health ministry can do is tell people "you shouldn't do A B C and you should do X Y Z"

This is correct afaik, I'm pretty sure the decision to close schools is with the ministries of education of each German state, however if federal institutions put out strong recommendations, state and local administrators will likely follow very soon after. Federal ministries may not have absolute control here (unless they declare a state of emergency or something) but they do have plenty of influence.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#73

Post by rorykoehler »

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

you will never know if it worked or not though. 4a & 2 look the same after the fact

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#74

Post by yread »

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

But banning direct flights from Italy was definitely not the right action especially since the tourists were just rerouted through other European airports. All the epidimiologists are saying that closing borders doesn't help since the beginning

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#75

Post by seszett »

AllegedAlec wrote: post #56
seszett wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do have a government though (quite a few of them even, but the federal government is the one that matters here) with all the power needed to do whatever it deems necessary. And the federal government has said that indoor meetings with more than 1000 persons are "not recommended". The Brussels government has cancelled those, the Walloon cities don't have events of more than 1000 persons planned in the near future,…

> We do have a government though (quite a few of them even, but the federal government is the one that matters here) with all the power needed to do whatever it deems necessary. Really? Because I seem to have read that budget deficit is getting out of hand because there is no federal government to fix it. Also, yeah, fair enough. There are a handful of other governments that technically could take a decision, but as…

Budget is one of those things that cannot be voted by the current affairs government so they just keep renewing the last budget allowances from the last actual government, as far as I understand (I don't know if it's a legal requirement, or just a custom). Don't take my word for it though, I'm definitely not an expert on Belgian politics.

But the coronavirus crisis is definitely a current affair, and the current government has free reign to do anything it deems necessary about it.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#76

Post by BiteCode_dev »

tomp wrote: post #31

I think it's a different reason. Let's analyze the outcomes from game theory perspective, along two dimensions: virus becomes pandemic or not, and governments do something or nothing. 1) no pandemic, no action -> government was "right", avoided wasting money -> reelected 2) no pandemic, action -> government was "wrong", wasted a lot of money, damaged the economy, inconvenienced the lives of the population -> voted ou…

Exactly.

Besides, it's a lose/lose proposition for the gov anyway.

If they do act, people will blame them for the cost of the action.

If they don't, people will blame then for the cost of not acting.

Nobody will pat them on the back, except a few intellectuals, for acting.

In fact, economically, the virus spreading is an opportunity to fire people you couldn't fire before, get rid of an old population costing money and have an excuse for a lot of things like passing certain types of law. People will not focus on that, their attention is elsewhere, and you can always invoke the circumstances if they do.

We have created a system in which it's not in the interest of the gov to solve the problem. And in which the population lives in a way that makes it hard to do the right thing by themselves.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#77

Post by tonyedgecombe »

matwood wrote: post #46
davedx wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is always the slowest country to act, and its citizens would feel entitled to the kind of far-fetched speculation the author posted. Sounds about right. Belgium and the Netherlands aren't doing very much yet. One interesting fact I discovered when discussing with my wife last night that I think does shape the discussion here: In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate -- in the U.S. it's mo…

> In the Netherlands, seasonal influenza has ~1% mortality rate Yikes! If true, do you know why that is?

In the 2018/2019 period there were approximately 400,000 cases of influenza and 2,900 extra deaths. Approximately 0.7%.

https://www.rivm.nl/sites/default/files/2019-09/TG_123539_01...

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#78

Post by fxtentacle »

michaelt wrote: post #58
fxtentacle wrote: post #43

TLDR: It's cheapest to let old people die, so that the young can continue working. A very cruel view on humanity, but I would be surprised if these thoughts hadn't crossed our politicians minds. Also, many initiatives by young people (e.g. limiting climate change, re-structuring society to be more equal-opportunity) are being blocked by old people who wish to preserve the status quo. So there is a general dislike by…

I find it hard to believe there's a significant number of people who would cheer the deaths of their own parents and grandparents?

Of course, everyone will hope that it's not their own parents, but only that one grumpy old person in the neighborhood that everyone dislikes anyway.

As for the reasons of why there is a divide between young and old, I guess a big part is jealousy, because the older generations had more stable job opportunities available to them.

https://qz.com/940686/millennials-and-baby-boomers-have-been...

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#79

Post by fxtentacle »

lm28469 wrote: post #54
fxtentacle wrote: post #43

TLDR: It's cheapest to let old people die, so that the young can continue working. A very cruel view on humanity, but I would be surprised if these thoughts hadn't crossed our politicians minds. Also, many initiatives by young people (e.g. limiting climate change, re-structuring society to be more equal-opportunity) are being blocked by old people who wish to preserve the status quo. So there is a general dislike by…

If you do that in the US you'd lose 60% of politicians and 90% of presidential candidates.

Which, in the eyes of young people, might not be that bad.

Re: Why some governments appear not to be acting on the Covid-19 threat

#80

Post by [deleted] »

AllegedAlec wrote: post #56
seszett wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We do have a government though (quite a few of them even, but the federal government is the one that matters here) with all the power needed to do whatever it deems necessary. And the federal government has said that indoor meetings with more than 1000 persons are "not recommended". The Brussels government has cancelled those, the Walloon cities don't have events of more than 1000 persons planned in the near future,…

> We do have a government though (quite a few of them even, but the federal government is the one that matters here) with all the power needed to do whatever it deems necessary. Really? Because I seem to have read that budget deficit is getting out of hand because there is no federal government to fix it. Also, yeah, fair enough. There are a handful of other governments that technically could take a decision, but as…

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