Can we do better than link to the front page of a news site?
Here is the official proclamation: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation...
U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
251–260 of 919 posts
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#252(In the USA) Is this going to accomplish anything? The virus is already here and has been spreading out-of-control for quite a while now. The only reason the numbers are still so low here is the incredibly low number of tests being done.
It stops new vectors. At this point the world is not trying to stop it spreading anymore, but slowing the rate of spread to not overwhelm healthcare.
Is external travel a significant input of new vectors compared to internal travel?
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#253Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…
There were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm considering the USA fully seeded at this point.
I'm betting we've been seeded since even before Wuhan's quarantine started. My folks and I all got pretty thoroughly sick during a cruise in early January, and they're becoming increasingly convinced it was COVID (especially since my stepmom tested negative for any sort of flu, and this was well before there were reports of COVID outside of China so of course the doctors wouldn't think to test for it even if they happened to have a test kit); it's increasingly difficult for me to be skeptical of that conclusion.
Thankfully all of us seemed to get over it without much complication, and it doesn't seem like very many of the people we've since interacted with have come down with it. We might very well have just been lucky, though.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#254(In the USA) Is this going to accomplish anything? The virus is already here and has been spreading out-of-control for quite a while now. The only reason the numbers are still so low here is the incredibly low number of tests being done.
A little, not a lot. On the very pessimistic side, it will at least convince all the casual travelers who go "ooo look at the cheap airfare! I'm sure I'll be fine" from booking/traveling. Overall this will have a very chilling effect on travel, even to non-targeted regions.
However, we do already have the virus in the USA. So it's not suddenly going to go away because of this proclamation.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#255(In the USA) Is this going to accomplish anything? The virus is already here and has been spreading out-of-control for quite a while now. The only reason the numbers are still so low here is the incredibly low number of tests being done.
It stops new vectors. At this point the world is not trying to stop it spreading anymore, but slowing the rate of spread to not overwhelm healthcare.
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Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#256Earlier quoted context omitted.
Estimates have said that they expect 20%-60% of people to get it (originally [1] but updated according to [2]. Something like 10-15% of those people require hospitalization [2] and something like 0.5% - 4% of people die [4]. If we use the lower bounds on all those we are talking about 6.5 million Americans hospitalized and 327,000 dead. For the sake of comparison, that is almost half the number of Americans who have…
I can't believe the 40-70% number. Looking it up, this underscores just how horribly the internet is set up to have these kinds of conversations. If you backsource it, you discover he said "there's a chance" it will hit 40-70%, and then only if no countermeasures are taken. That's very different than what is represented in the cbs transcript. I saw another seemingly reputable estimate today - some disease person on J…
> I can't believe the 40-70% number.
I can. Look at how seriously China shut down cities etc and it still spreads, though much slower. Do you think western nations will take the level of action China has at all or in anyhting similar to the same time frames?
And to be clear, when I say 'I can' I'm not claiming Im right or predicting anything, I really dont know. But this seems as likely as any other scenario especially when experts are saying levels around this.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#257Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure the CDC is the most credible source at this point
Not sure why I can’t reply to the commenter below. Anyway, here’s a link backing up the parent’s claim, contrary to whatever CDC is saying: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v...
That study isn't saying anything contrary to what the CDC is saying. Or am I the parent that you're agreeing with, and you meant "regardless of whatever the CDC is saying?"
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#258Earlier quoted context omitted.
There were just 2 cases detected at the gym down the street from me. I'm in a medium town of about 40k in upstate NY. Not podunk, but hardly bustling. I'm considering the USA fully seeded at this point.
Does this mean we need a more robust domestic response to contain coronavirus, instead of or in addition to restricting travel to the US? Akin to how securing a network is more than setting up a firewall at the perimeter.
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Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#259Earlier quoted context omitted.
It cannot be contained. That’s what the pandemic declaration means (even though the WHO should have done this weeks ago). At this point, the only rational thing to do is to try to slow the spread. The good news is that this is a very mild virus, and the vast majority of infected people will have minor symptoms. The fatality rate in Korea is currently 0.6%, and becuase of the comprehensive nature of their testing, thi…
Until the hospitals are overloaded.
This has not happened in Korea, Japan or Singapore, and all have been dealing with the virus for longer than Europe.
At some point, this scary story is going to have to be adjusted to reflect reality.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#260Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Korea or as high as 5% in Italy. [...] It is not an End of Days zombie apocalypse. A few percent is a lot . World War II killed 3% of the human population, and that's where we're headed if we don't stop it.
No we're not. That's absolutely absurd to claim. It might -- MIGHT -- kill 2-3% of people who are highly susceptible to it, people who are in their 70s+, people with cardiac and respiratory disease. Maybe. We don't even know that will happen, because we can probably save a huge percentage of that population as well. You're fearmongering, and it's bullshit.
You're... reverse fearmongering? Downplaying?
Additionally, for someone calling others' claims bullshit, your numbers have no correspondence to reality. In Wuhan, the 3% number was for the general population; for the 70+ age range, it was ~20%.