U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days • Hacker News Board

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#221

Post by rojondo » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

negrit wrote: post #171

dcolkitt wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, Americans have much larger and more comfortable homes than Europeans. Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies, which means less trips to the store. Very few people use public transportation regularly. Most people have private back yards. Many more meals are take-out or drive-thru. More Americans use e-commerce for shopping than Europeans. In Europe by contrast, much more of life revolves a…

> Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies No they don't. No one in NYC, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, ... have big garages to stockpile supplies and most of the US lives in those big cities with apartments without garages. In the suburbs they do but that's a minority of the population.

Majority of US population lives in the suburbs. Roughly 30% live in urban areas and many of them would have garages or basements. For example, my town is considered urban and all the houses have garages.

https://www.citylab.com/life/2018/11/data-most-american-neig...

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-e...

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#222

Post by majormajor » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

negrit wrote: post #171

dcolkitt wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand, Americans have much larger and more comfortable homes than Europeans. Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies, which means less trips to the store. Very few people use public transportation regularly. Most people have private back yards. Many more meals are take-out or drive-thru. More Americans use e-commerce for shopping than Europeans. In Europe by contrast, much more of life revolves a…

> Americans have big garages to stockpile supplies No they don't. No one in NYC, Boston, San Francisco, Seattle, ... have big garages to stockpile supplies and most of the US lives in those big cities with apartments without garages. In the suburbs they do but that's a minority of the population.

There are more Americans in suburbs and rural area than in "small apartment urban" areas. https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/demographic-and-e...

> About 46 million Americans live in the nation’s rural counties, 175 million in its suburbs and small metros and about 98 million in its urban core counties.

> As a group, the population in rural counties grew 3% since 2000, less than their 8% growth in the 1990s. Urban county population rose 13% since 2000 and the population in suburban and small metro counties went up 16%, growth rates somewhat higher than in the 1990s.

It's hidden in plain sight: you mention "Boston, San Fransisco, and Seattle" in the same breath as NYC, but numbers-wise those are all pretty small and you're leaving out not only their suburbs but also the LA, Chicago, DFW and Houston areas which all have considerable amounts of suburbs and single family living, and hold almost 40M people alone...

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#223

Post by pcurve » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

rwcarlsen wrote: post #189

I am beginning to strongly suspect that supply chain disruption caused by government decisions is going to cause way more damage to the world than this virus ever could have on its own. I think more people making these decisions could benefit from a good deep reading of Adam Smith's "The Wealth of Nations".

I'm certain most government knows the economic consequences will be pretty severe. However, given the panic this has already created in public, and much higher mortality rate than seasonal flu, they cannot simply ride it out.

I'm sure they have weighed their options, and have opted to take more certain shorter term hit vs gamble with uncertain longer term hit.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#224

Post by earthtourist » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

elbasti wrote: post #159

What's the endgame for the pandemic? Assume all governments act more-or-less correctly; people self quarantine, companies switch to remote work, etc. When does the world get back to normal? In two years after a vaccine is developed? This summer? Ever?

1. Limit the infection rate as much as possible for the next 1-2 years.

2. Develop a cure (vaccine or therapy).

3. Return to our normal way of life.

4. Massively revamp our preparations for the next one.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#225

Post by endorphone » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

guerrilla wrote: post #41

unlinked_dll wrote: post #30

Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly to) it's absolutely going to reduce the number of people who will travel across the pond. Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. My concern is how economies are going to respond to the US being cut off from Continental ports for a month, which as far as I c…

I don't know about the actual economy but finance seems to hate this. Most open market indicators dropped by like 3%...

It isn't just the travel ban that spooks markets. It's the feeling that there are no functioning adults in charge of the response for something that requires real leadership.

Each and every time Trump has spoken to this, as he attempts a mulligan for his last catastrophic bungling of it [1], his raw and profound unsuitability is laid bare (it is incredible that this point is even remotely contentious, as some people clutch onto denial with such vigor. For someone to still be a believer in Trump requires some serious mental gymnastics and/or impairment).

[1] - It was a hoax. The flu. An overreaction. 15 patients soon would be 0. A vaccine in a month. Contained.

His sole desperate need was to try to buoy the market -- it is literally the single and only thing he has going for him -- but unfortunately reality is ready to make its presence known the next day, not concerned with his chronic lying and bluster. Having an egocentric narcissist liar/grifter as POTUS turns out to not be a great thing. But I hear that Jared Kushner is putting together a response so everything should be great. He has the qualification of being married to Trump's daughter.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#226

Post by tunesmith » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:30 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #125

corel_ wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure where this level of panic is coming from. Numbers are about to spike everywhere pretty much no matter what anybody does, because better testing and funding has become available. Quarantining an entire continent, and even worse than this badly doing it, seems to be an astonishing overreaction. The average age of death for coronavirus victims is 83. The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Ko…

Estimates have said that they expect 20%-60% of people to get it (originally [1] but updated according to [2]. Something like 10-15% of those people require hospitalization [2] and something like 0.5% - 4% of people die [4]. If we use the lower bounds on all those we are talking about 6.5 million Americans hospitalized and 327,000 dead. For the sake of comparison, that is almost half the number of Americans who have…

I can't believe the 40-70% number. Looking it up, this underscores just how horribly the internet is set up to have these kinds of conversations. If you backsource it, you discover he said "there's a chance" it will hit 40-70%, and then only if no countermeasures are taken. That's very different than what is represented in the cbs transcript.

I saw another seemingly reputable estimate today - some disease person on Joe Rogan's podcast, who was saying that 96 million people could get it, of which 48 million would need to be hospitalized. This makes no sense unless you are predicting a virus mutation. We're not even close to seeing 50% hospitalization rates.

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#227

Post by Jommi » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:31 AM UTC

BryantD wrote: post #152

Important updates: a) This does not apply to US citizens or their family members[1]. b) This does not apply to cargo[2]. It appears that the President misspoke regarding point 2. [1] https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/homeland-security-acting... . [2] https://twitter.com/AnaSwanson/status/1237921160500830208

Thankfully it was just a small error... Also looks like it won't affect outbound flights either?

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#228

Post by Jommi » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #100

From what I read in WSJ, it's not a ban on travel by anyone, only on Europeans (whatever that comes to be defined as). Anyone found any more clarification? In one case that might mean the cessation of flights altogether, in the other case some flights still might fly?

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/homeland-security-acting...

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#229

Post by aabhay » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #85

scottLobster wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Watched the broadcast live, yes it includes cargo shipments. Something tells me the markets are going to react badly to that one

This isn't just about COVID-19. This is economic warfare.

You mean economic suicide?

Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days

#230

Post by 6gvONxR4sf7o » Thu, Mar 12, 2020, 2:32 AM UTC

Frost1x wrote: post #109

unlinked_dll wrote: post #30

Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly to) it's absolutely going to reduce the number of people who will travel across the pond. Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. My concern is how economies are going to respond to the US being cut off from Continental ports for a month, which as far as I c…

>Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. Based on the localized infection cases I see across the US and have been watching as well as the characteristics of the virus (life outside host/on surfaces, in air, the degree of asymptomatic transference, etc.), it's well beyond containment IMHO. Travel isn't going to do too much to reduce infection rates alone. We need significant cultural changes to reduce infection rat…

It's not just about containment, which signs point to being past us. If we slow the infection and spread it out over time, we do a couple things. Slowing it gives us time to develop tests and treatment and processes and systems to deal with it. Spreading it out over time means that at any given moment fewer people need medical care. Like, if everyone needs care tomorrow, obviously the system can't handle it, but if a few people need it tomorrow, and a few the day after and so on, spreading it out over time, the system can handle a few at a time.

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/