Let me just explain this to my broker, see if they will unwind after my stops hit...
U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
161–170 of 919 posts
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's all about flattening the curve at this point. You can do your best to identify those infected and have them self-quarantine, but if the gates are open and infected people are streaming into your country, you're not going to get far.
Ugh, USA is at the moment likely on level with Europe. The idea that this will prevent "infected people streaming into USA" is uninformed. This step limits transfer both ways, between two regions that both have similar level of infection spread. It may help both sides contain the virus, but it won't limit the amount of infected people in the USA on its own. Please, be careful about the language you use, the way you w…
but it won't limit the amount of infected people in the USA on its own
I never said it would. By stopping flights, you're removing one potential source of new infections.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#163I get that they excluded the UK for diplomatic reasons, but it's literally only a few days behind the rest of Europe in terms of infection count, which means this will have almost no effect. I actually think banning travel from China months ago was a good call, but by analogous reasoning, the right time to ban travel from Europe (including the UK) was last week.
> the right time to ban travel from Europe (including the UK) was last week.
The US had active uncontained clusters, and was known to have them, two weeks ago. Once that's true, there's no way that mere travel numbers are going to move that needles significantly.
Again: we banned travel from China and it was too late already. This does not work. And I'm horrified at the number of people on this site that don't see that.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#164Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not sure where this level of panic is coming from. Numbers are about to spike everywhere pretty much no matter what anybody does, because better testing and funding has become available. Quarantining an entire continent, and even worse than this badly doing it, seems to be an astonishing overreaction. The average age of death for coronavirus victims is 83. The mortality rate seems to be as low as 0.6% in South Ko…
Estimates have said that they expect 20%-60% of people to get it (originally [1] but updated according to [2]. Something like 10-15% of those people require hospitalization [2] and something like 0.5% - 4% of people die [4]. If we use the lower bounds on all those we are talking about 6.5 million Americans hospitalized and 327,000 dead. For the sake of comparison, that is almost half the number of Americans who have…
FOR CLARITY - I'm not saying that there isn't a need to take measures to protect people.
However, I do believe that a lot of inaccurate information is being presented. The public attention on this subject is enormous, making it a ripe topic for the media to profit from alarmist headlines.
[0]The source of the 40%-70% figure has since dramatically altered their estimates, and added several qualifiers.
[0]https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=2...
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#165Kinda useless as people can fly to Mexico sneak in thru San Diego. I can't believe in 2020 we still don't have a simple and effective reusable respirator, which evaporates all aerosols and turns them into safe to breathe vapors. I also think the ban now is good, but 30 days will not be enough as things are exponentially getting worse. Even if we reach the infliction point, this is not gonna end in 30, 60, or even 90 days.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#166Regardless of the ability of people to travel to the UK or Canada and get here (which people have done for a long time with other nations we don't take kindly to) it's absolutely going to reduce the number of people who will travel across the pond. Which is the goal, reduce infection rates. My concern is how economies are going to respond to the US being cut off from Continental ports for a month, which as far as I c…
Trade should not be affected. According to the BBC:
The US president said his travel ban did not include Americans who had undergone appropriate screenings - or "the tremendous amount of trade and cargo".
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#167Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
Estimates have said that they expect 20%-60% of people to get it (originally [1] but updated according to [2]. Something like 10-15% of those people require hospitalization [2] and something like 0.5% - 4% of people die [4]. If we use the lower bounds on all those we are talking about 6.5 million Americans hospitalized and 327,000 dead. For the sake of comparison, that is almost half the number of Americans who have…
FOR CLARITY - I'm not saying that there isn't a need to take measures to protect people. However, I do believe that a lot of inaccurate information is being presented. The public attention on this subject is enormous, making it a ripe topic for the media to profit from alarmist headlines. [0]The source of the 40%-70% figure has since dramatically altered their estimates, and added several qualifiers. [0] https://twit…
He lowered it from 40-70% to 20-60%, hardly a qualitative change. The fact is that under essentially any epidemiological model, if you have R0 > 1 and no countermeasures, it's going to hit a sizable fraction of the world population, because the exponential growth only gets stopped by running out of victims.
Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#169Re: U.S. will suspend all travel from Europe for 30 days
#170I see in some places it says this includes cargo / shipping. Is that true?
Watched the broadcast live, yes it includes cargo shipments. Something tells me the markets are going to react badly to that one
They walked back the cargo restrictions: https://twitter.com/AnaSwanson/status/1237921160500830208