1,600 is way low
The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
11–20 of 28 posts
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#12I think there are some major flaws in the inputs. For instance, '20% have enough motivation to start educating themselves' reduces the number of successes significantly, but who's to say that is a valid input to overall success?
I can come up with many random variables, and feed these numbers through it to come up with the last 1.
of those, 20% have enough free-time to commit to the needs of their startup?
of those, 20% have the sales skill to get other people involved.
Of those, ...
I suspect there are far more than 1600 who have and will achieve 'some measure of success'.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#13I remember seeing almost exactly the same analysis by a well-known author concerning people who claim they want to write a book. I'll see if I can dig it out - it's in one of my "Analog" magazines as an editorial.
ADDED IN EDIT: I think it was Heinlein .. stand by ...
Yup, here it is:
http://technologydesignconsultants.com/InterestingDocuments/...
I won't submit that link as a separate HN item because I don't want scribd to get it.
He starts with an estimate of 100 million for the literate adult population, and says that half claim they want to write.
* 90% never write, then
* 90% never finish, then
* 90% re-write endlessly, then
* 90% never put it on the market, then
* 90% don't keep it on the market.
That leaves 500. He then quotes that in a survey by the Authors' League of America, 400 stated that they supported themselves and their families through writing.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#14Hmmm, I smell a general case... Our best estimates put the number of x in the world at around y. Applying the 80/20 rule you can estimate: Of those, 20% (y(.2)) want to z Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)) have enough motivation to start educating themselves about the process Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually start building something Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually finish building something Of those,…
>20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) have prepared themselves enough to achieve some measure of success
What does this prep entail? What more needs to be done apart from having the motivation,starting and finishing building the damn thing?
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#15Is this really the 80-20 rule? As I understood it, the 80-20 rule is that 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. E.g. 80% of profits come from 20% of your clients.
Here he's saying that 20% of developers want to launch a startup, and that you can further subdivide each group into another group that is 20% of the size of the previous group. That doesn't make sense to me as an application of the 80-20 rule other than that there's a 20% in there.
Edit: here's an explanation. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_principle
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#16"Finish" is a funny thing. Interactive community web sites, like say, Facebook or Deviant Art aren't ever 'finished'.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#17I remember seeing almost exactly the same analysis by a well-known author concerning people who claim they want to write a book. I'll see if I can dig it out - it's in one of my "Analog" magazines as an editorial. ADDED IN EDIT: I think it was Heinlein .. stand by ... Yup, here it is: http://technologydesignconsultants.com/InterestingDocuments/... I won't submit that link as a separate HN item because I don't want sc…
Writing (and finishing) a book is a lot of work.
I always admired people who did it (regardless of the final quality) because I thought I could never do one myself.
Now I've written several.
And now back to my software projects.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#18Hmmm, I smell a general case... Our best estimates put the number of x in the world at around y. Applying the 80/20 rule you can estimate: Of those, 20% (y(.2)) want to z Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)) have enough motivation to start educating themselves about the process Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually start building something Of those, 20% (y(.2)(.2)(.2)(.2)) will actually finish building something Of those,…
General, yes, but useful? You can easily get wildly different numbers by arbitrarily adding and removing steps. "Of those, 20% don't get too discouraged after educating themselves about the process" Now there are 320. Or combine start and finish building into simply "20% actually build something". Now it's 8000.
It was clearly meant to be motivational, not something you should bet your house on.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#1990% of tech blog authors want some cool statistics to quote
90% of those will be willing to make them up to get there
90% of those will add as many steps as it takes to make the point they were trying to make, probably one about difficulty of getting from one step to the next
90% of those will be willing to publish those made up statistics
100% of those will lose a chunk of credibility by doing so.
Re: The 80/20 Rule of Technical Founders
#20Look, at first this kind of thing was all fun and inspirational, but Seth Godin-style aphorisms have been demoded for about three to four years now. Content with substance, please.