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New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

cnbc.com

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Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#51

Post by malandrew »

agseward wrote: post #25
malandrew wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC was restricting who could get tested up until a few days ago.

They are still restricting who can get tested. My son who has a fever and cough can't get tested because he doesn't have shortness of breath (you have to exhibit all 3 symptoms at the same time to be eligible for a test).

That's nuts. The federal government at this point has done far more harm than good.

Organizations that provide testing (public or private) should have just coordinated directly with the WHO on how to do those tests and just busted their butts to keep up with demand, which doctors deciding directly who to test and when. We'd have far more testing being done if we have just let markets do their thing.

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#52

Post by kryogen1c »

catacombs wrote: post #48
fgonzag wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically impossible to quarantine entire cities in a democracy, especially with an election coming up. I mean, you can , but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it.

> I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it. Jesus. Putting people's lives at risk, just so you can keep your government job? How low can we can go?

why is it that everyone always releases the public from their half of the responsibility?

politicians are participating in game theory and acting out their best interests based on the other players. It takes two to tango.

I suppose this opens up a slippery slope whose neighbors are authoritarianism and will-less-ness and, in their innocence and ignorance, people cease to venture forth.

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#53

Post by dnautics »

catacombs wrote: post #48
fgonzag wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically impossible to quarantine entire cities in a democracy, especially with an election coming up. I mean, you can , but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it.

> I mean, you can, but it's going to cost you so much political capital that you'll be out of the game entirely. And I don't see many politicians willing to put their jobs on the line for it. Jesus. Putting people's lives at risk, just so you can keep your government job? How low can we can go?

> Jesus. Putting people's lives at risk, just so you can keep your government job? How low can we can go?

How about using a drone to bomb an underage citizen without trial?

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#56

Post by RickJWagner »

I wonder what will happen after this first wave passes.

Will people then need to get 2 shots each year, once for flu and once for corona and it's descendants? Can the two be handled with a single shot?

I wonder also what will become of small population centers that manage to avoid the first wave. Will they suffer more greatly in the future, when the virus finally finds them?

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#57

Post by jonahbenton »

RickJWagner wrote: post #54

Here's an article from CBS, it seems to urge calm and reasonable containment. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/03/10/dr_drew_p...

That story and his individual points fall apart upon analysis.

The below is the best current analytical distillation I've seen of where we are:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

The upshot is:

a) there is a huge diff between localities that act aggressively and prepare and those that dont

b) the ones that prepare and act aggressively to reduce exposure see death rates below 1%. This is still 5-10x more deadly than the flu, and is best case

c) the ones that dont see death rates above 5%. This is 50-100x worse than the flu.

In the US Washington and San Fran are failing to act aggressively enough in time.

The article doesnt discuss NYC, where I live, which has similar levels of infections as Washington tho far fewer deaths. The piece explains how the difference in death rate indicates NYC is in a far better position than Washington, and my own analysis is that we may still have time to stop the worst case, but it is really about what happens in the next several days.

Even in worst case, most people will themselves be fine, but everyone knows at least someone immune compromised or elderly or otherwise much more significantly at risk. So everyone's social or familial network will be impacted.

In terms of the future, it seems likely that even in best case, there will be subsequent waves that hit pockets that were missed the first time around. The difference in impact again will be in how overwhelmed the local hospital system will be. In the US this is likely to be highly variable as healthcare, bed availability, etc, is non-uniform.

And, yes, a vaccine in 12-18 months is pretty much the dream scenario. No guarantee we get there.

The dynamics of this are not something most of us have ever experienced.

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#58

Post by cmurf »

malandrew wrote: post #51
agseward wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are still restricting who can get tested. My son who has a fever and cough can't get tested because he doesn't have shortness of breath (you have to exhibit all 3 symptoms at the same time to be eligible for a test).

That's nuts. The federal government at this point has done far more harm than good. Organizations that provide testing (public or private) should have just coordinated directly with the WHO on how to do those tests and just busted their butts to keep up with demand, which doctors deciding directly who to test and when. We'd have far more testing being done if we have just let markets do their thing.

It's not about markets vs government. It's about competency versus incompetency. South Korea has far more testing than about any country, it's not due to letting markets do their thing. It's due to competency: they had an imagination for this situation, from experience, and had a plan to deal with it, should it happen again. We have examples of authoritarian and democratic governments, some do the right thing, some do the wrong thing.

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#59

Post by malandrew »

cmurf wrote: post #58
malandrew wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's nuts. The federal government at this point has done far more harm than good. Organizations that provide testing (public or private) should have just coordinated directly with the WHO on how to do those tests and just busted their butts to keep up with demand, which doctors deciding directly who to test and when. We'd have far more testing being done if we have just let markets do their thing.

It's not about markets vs government. It's about competency versus incompetency. South Korea has far more testing than about any country, it's not due to letting markets do their thing. It's due to competency: they had an imagination for this situation, from experience, and had a plan to deal with it, should it happen again. We have examples of authoritarian and democratic governments, some do the right thing, some d…

With markets, you have an opportunity to discover and reward competency. With government, you have all your eggs in one basket and if that basket isn't competent, you're shit out of luck.

Re: New York deploys National Guard to New Rochelle, establishes containment center

#60

Post by rasz »

dforrestwilson wrote: post #5
taborj wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've not been keeping up; what's the obstacle to getting tested? Insurance companies not covering? Hospitals not willing? Patients not going in?

# of test kits. The US can currently test something like 7800 people per day as of yesterday. Some other system constraints to think about are: 1M hospital beds 70k ventilators

Those are total NY numbers, right? considering recent article about "Washington state authorities sent an urgent request for 233,000 respirators .. to be released from the federal", not to mention the fact Italy has 30K, and they ran out a week ago.
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