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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#861

Post by BlargMcLarg »

remus wrote: post #852
tomp wrote: post #829

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but what higher standard is that? The standard of "don't panic", currently followed by WHO and pretty much all heads of state (with possible exceptions being Putin and possibly Italy & Austria), or the standard of "panic", universally shunned by experts and wanna-be experts alike?

You can say "don't panic" without misleading people by using numbers completely out of context. By comparing the number of Corona virus cases and deaths to the annual flu deaths he is implying that the number of deaths from Corona virus in the US is low and the risk is negligible, and while it is currently low this completely misses the point that in other countries it has proven to be extremely contagious and has a…

Its misuse of the term "don't panic". "Don't panic" should mean "remain calm yet vigilant", not "stop being a crybaby and follow everyday life like a good sheep". Panicking doesn't make sense unless you wish to activate people who wouldn't otherwise, and neither does misleading people with poor, incomplete or flat-out wrong statistics. Pretty sure that's why the term "don't panic" gets a bad rep: one party means to be serious but calm, the other party uses it as means to ridicule those who err on the side of caution.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#862

Post by forgotmyhnacc »

dvcrn wrote: post #485
forgotmyhnacc wrote: post #479

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's absolutely astounding that Disney Land and world are still open.

Disney Land and Disney Sea here in Tokyo closed down. So did USJ in Osaka.

Was referring to the US as the parent commenter was focused on that.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#863

Post by BlargMcLarg »

chinathrow wrote: post #790
realusername wrote: post #775

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do agree, it will be a disaster in Europe but the US will be even worse, absolutely nothing is prepared for that.

Now if you think about the US even worse, what are you thinking about under-developped nations? Africa?

Doesn't Africa at least have the benefit of being a warmer continent, with the current claims of the virus preferring milder, wet climates? Or has that last statement been debunked yet?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#864

Post by BlargMcLarg »

arbitrary_name wrote: post #820
akie wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read what was in the original Twitter thread? Hospitals at 200%, people who need intensive care that aren't even looked at , staff who get sick and are otherwise completely overworked... I'm not sure if you can overreact to that, to be honest. But people in countries that aren't at that stage yet think it won't be so bad there. Because it's all fake and second-hand information, not well sourced, and therefore…

You can absolutely overreact to that. People will get sick and die, yes, but it's also not worth sitting down make parts of the economy and falling into panic. This will get much worse, but it's still worth maintaining some perspective.

If what the accounts say so far is true, most people aren't ready to accept what maintaining some perspective means or lack some serious virtue.

Even if you yourself aren't vulnerable, you're potentially screwing up people's lives. Not just vulnerable elders, but also doctors who, for better or worse, are unconsciously taken advantage of by requesting them to overwork themselves in poor conditions. The alternatives to not having them overwork are coordinated efforts (which increases contamination, and requires serious coordination that hasn't been shown in Italy yet if the stories are to be believed) or simply leaving people to die. How many people do you think truly understand the consequence of their actions and would willingly continue to do so with full knowledge?

And for what? Some abstract concept called "economy" that 90%* likely won't feel a thing of? Isn't it at least a little ironic that we aren't allowed to panic about corona, but are allowed to panic about anything potentially affecting the economy 'negatively', which just as many people don't know anything about, including tons of self-proclaimed experts?

* Disclaimer: This statistic is indeed picked randomly.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#865

Post by hef19898 »

rglullis wrote: post #860
hef19898 wrote: post #857

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One last comment because you clearly seem to prefer to live in your own world. Assessing risk the way you do has one big issue (it actually has multiple but let's stick with one). When you put Corona in the disastrous category you habe to provide reasons for doing so, otherwise it is just a gut feeling. And by classifying it as disastrous, you run into issues when classifying stuff like Ebola for example. Over-classi…

This over-reliance on "experts" is what got things to this state in the first place. Not that long ago, WHO was adamant in saying that flying to China was still okay and that "there was no reason to take extreme measures". How many lives were lost because of that? Conversely, had they recommended more aggressive contention measures, how many trips would have been avoided? How much slower would the virus come to Europ…

Mass-extinction? That escalated quickly. Maybe uninstall Plague Inc. for a while?

And no, that is exactly not how risk assessment is supposed to work.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#866

Post by joe_the_user »

KnightOfWords wrote: post #577
joe_the_user wrote: post #534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, The only thing that be called reasonable statistic is the number of deaths and that hasn't spiked - I hate to say - yet. It's possible hospitals are even missing those, it's a big country. And it's a dispersed country so things might not spread as quickly. But other, what you say. Stopping large public events and doing mass testing seems crucial. South Korea seems to have gotten a handle on their infection proc…

It takes 6-41 days for covid-19 to kill, with 14 days being the median. The death rate is going to lag behind the cases of infection by a few days.

Yeah but deaths are still the most unambiguous, the thing that inadequate testing and controls are least likely to hide. A lot of hidden infection would appear at least some death - several days I pointed to mortality rates as the biggest marker for areas where infection would spike. I am not happy to be right about this since this awful however you cut it but there you are.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#867

Post by rglullis »

hef19898 wrote: post #865
rglullis wrote: post #860

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This over-reliance on "experts" is what got things to this state in the first place. Not that long ago, WHO was adamant in saying that flying to China was still okay and that "there was no reason to take extreme measures". How many lives were lost because of that? Conversely, had they recommended more aggressive contention measures, how many trips would have been avoided? How much slower would the virus come to Europ…

Mass-extinction? That escalated quickly. Maybe uninstall Plague Inc. for a while? And no, that is exactly not how risk assessment is supposed to work.

Do you have kids? Older parents? Would you tell them that is totally fine to keep doing what they are doing just because the experts haven't assessed the risk yet?

It doesn't have to be a literal mass-extinction event for this type of thing to lead to some catastrophic events affecting people you know and care about. If it were to happen (I honestly hope it doesn't) to someone you care about, I am sure that "the experts told me things were fine" will be of little consolation.

How about dropping the sarcasm and word-thinking and start to put some thought into the questions I made regarding the WHO recommendations up until some weeks ago? I bet if you could go back in time to Italy just three weeks ago, you wouldn't be telling people to just "listen to the experts", would you?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#868

Post by hef19898 »

rglullis wrote: post #867
hef19898 wrote: post #865

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mass-extinction? That escalated quickly. Maybe uninstall Plague Inc. for a while? And no, that is exactly not how risk assessment is supposed to work.

Do you have kids? Older parents? Would you tell them that is totally fine to keep doing what they are doing just because the experts haven't assessed the risk yet? It doesn't have to be a literal mass-extinction event for this type of thing to lead to some catastrophic events affecting people you know and care about. If it were to happen (I honestly hope it doesn't) to someone you care about, I am sure that "the expe…

You might think this is strange, but the short answer is yes.

Now a slightly longer one. Guidelines on how infection risk can be minimised are very consistent. And they make perfect sense. So yes, that's the advice I give my two kids, my parents (both of which fall into the high risk age groups, luckily they are following that advice already without me), and the advice I follow myself.

WHO recommendations are based on the best available picture to them. I prefer to trust someone changing his opinion when data changes over someone who paints a worst case scenario from day one on.

And yes, if someone from my family ultimately dies, which I really don't hope, having done everything experts told us to do to prevent it would be the only consolation there is. The alternative being fear mongering, panic and paranoia. In which any infections happening toy loved ones (assuming I am the only factor behind there behaviour, which I am thankfully not as my family thinks pretty well for themselves) would be to a certain degree on me.

And the experts have assessed the risk. Hence the advice they give. But you do you, ok? As long as you stop spreading stories about mass extinction and stuff like that.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#869

Post by rglullis »

hef19898 wrote: post #868
rglullis wrote: post #867

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have kids? Older parents? Would you tell them that is totally fine to keep doing what they are doing just because the experts haven't assessed the risk yet? It doesn't have to be a literal mass-extinction event for this type of thing to lead to some catastrophic events affecting people you know and care about. If it were to happen (I honestly hope it doesn't) to someone you care about, I am sure that "the expe…

You might think this is strange, but the short answer is yes. Now a slightly longer one. Guidelines on how infection risk can be minimised are very consistent. And they make perfect sense. So yes, that's the advice I give my two kids, my parents (both of which fall into the high risk age groups, luckily they are following that advice already without me), and the advice I follow myself. WHO recommendations are based o…

> Guidelines on how infection risk can be minimised are very consistent.

You are talking about different scales, here. One thing is "here is what the experts are saying to minimize the chance of contagion on the Ubahn", another is "the experts are saying that is okay to fly to China, so yeah, why should I not be on a plane to Shanghai for a plant inspection that could be postponed without any larger impact to my business?"

And scale matters. The "experts recommendations based on the best picture painted for them" led to thousands flying to China, most of which could surely be avoided or postponed, while I can bet that anyone "paranoid" enough to think "I better check with my boss if this trip is a life-and-death matter before boarding on the plane" is probably still around without getting infected and (even better) without spreading anything further.

> everything experts told us to do prevent it would be the only consolation there is.

My bad. I forgot I was talking to a German. Your line of thinking is so close to "I was just following orders", it is a good example of the things I despise about living in Berlin.

> stop spreading stories about mass extinction

If this is what you are taking from everything that I said, then I am sorry for you. You are the turkey.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#870

Post by perl4ever »

bagacrap wrote: post #397
wyattpeak wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for those of us who live through it Please don't needlessly add drama to the already fairly panicked response. Virtually everyone under the age of seventy will live through it. The death rate for young to middle-aged adults is two or three per thousand.

I think that gp was adding respect for the deceased, not drama.

I've noticed people take offense if you mention that the survival rate is 99.5% if you're under about 50. Because you're minimizing the seriousness.

I'm not surprised that people take offense if you imply that some people will still die, because you're contributing to the hysteria.

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