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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#981
post #690
post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"There's nothing to do here." Maybe. I imagine it's a trigger for some people to review their investment mix. Not saying panic sell at this particularly bad moment, but downturns are an obvious heads up for people that assumed everything would constantly rise. Changing your mix for future deposits might not be a bad idea if your current mix is higher risk than it should be for your age.

Probably want to change the mix in a few months, not right now.

If you can predict that the market will go down, yes. But you cannot--that's the whole point.

You could transition more slowly to get the "dollar cost averaging" effect, but that has its own risks.

If your mix is wrong, it's best to fix it pretty quickly.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#982
post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're trading options, you are not an average retail investor. Discussing puts isn't relevant for GP's situation.

So? If you want to buy options, it's relatively easy to transform yourself into such an investor, so that should be fair game for evaluating HNers' potential search space.

It's not appropriate unless you're a multi-millionaire, and it's not that easy to transform yourself into one.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#983
post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? If you want to buy options, it's relatively easy to transform yourself into such an investor, so that should be fair game for evaluating HNers' potential search space.

It's not appropriate unless you're a multi-millionaire, and it's not that easy to transform yourself into one.

You don't need to be a multi-millionare to make money on options, I just recently cited someone who put a small amount (relative to a multi-millionare) to disproportionately profit from the market declines that weren't priced in.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22526246

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#984

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not the OP, but when I left a company where I had a 401(k) and transferred the balance to my preferred brokerage, the source account was frozen for about that long during the approval and transfer process.

Yes, and I assume they cut a check to your IRA?

Yes, but the longest part of the process was waiting for the 401(k) administrator to actually do that, and once I initiated the process I couldn’t make any changes. This was a while ago so I don’t remember the specific time frames, but it was somewhere between 10–15 business days for the 401(k) to show a zero balance, then 3–5 business days after that for the money to show up in my IRA. I had no control over when something would happen during this process.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#985
post #713

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? If you want to buy options, it's relatively easy to transform yourself into such an investor, so that should be fair game for evaluating HNers' potential search space.

It's not appropriate unless you're a multi-millionaire, and it's not that easy to transform yourself into one.

I put 1000 in, but I could have put on 200$ in.

Options are even MORE appropriate for the non super rich, because if you put a small amount of money in, you either win big or you lose it all. I'm fine with losing 200$ occasionally.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#986
post #520

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dear Lord please DO NOT put your entire retirement into bonds right now. Bond yields are at an all time low . That means prices are at an all time high. This is not the time to massively rotate into an asset class at an all-time high price due to fear/risk aversion.

Serious question, perhaps I'm misunderstanding something: So long as bond yields are positive, they cannot depreciate in value, can they? As in if I pull out X dollars from the market and into bonds, assuming yields stay positive, I'm guaranteed X dollars out? Or have I totally misunderstood how bonds work?

You have totally misunderstood how bonds work on a "present value" or "mark to market" basis.

(All of the below assumes the bonds actually pay as agreed. Actual default risk is something totally different, and still present here.)

When you buy a bond and hold it to maturity, you're sort of right. If you put in $10,000 into buying a coupon bond, you will get the coupons plus the $10,000 back at the end. And if you buy a zero-coupon bond for whatever amount, which will be worth $10,000 at maturity, you'll get the $10,000 back at the end.

In fact, you don't even need to "assum[e] yields stay positive." When you buy individual issues and hold to maturity, you don't really care what everyone else's yields do; you get what you contracted for.

The problem comes if you want to actually sell out of your position, OR to know the true value of your position (essentially equivalent operations) along the way.

If you put in $10,000 into a bond yielding 5% coupon, and the next day yields spike to 10%, nobody will want to buy your bond for $10,000 any more. You most certainly have lost value. "Aha," the naif says, "but I could always hold to maturity and get my principal back!" Sorry. Do the thought experiment where instead of buying the 5% issue on day 1, you instead buy the 10% issue on day 2. Compare the cumulative sum you receive under each scenario. Investing on day 1 (at 5%) is strictly worse than investing on day 2 (at 10%).

Likewise, if yields instead crash from 5% to 1% on day 2, your position will be worth much more. Your $10,000 notional bond yielding 5% will net a buyer so much more than $10,000 spent on a 1% yielding issue that she will pay more than $10,000 for it. You have had a real gain, even if not realized.

The same thing applies to bond funds or indices but with much more smoothing across a portfolio. With bond funds, however, there is not even the illusory "X dollars out" guarantee; since they are marked to market every day you might well never enjoy a breakeven price.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#987
post #867
post #842

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you lived in countries like Italy, Germany and Russia, you lost everything when those stock markets were closed down in the first half of the 20th century. This may be true, but then we're talking about such large changes that investment advice sort of becomes pointless. I mean no doubt that life would have sucked in those situations, but there's no investment choice that would have saved you either. Like, if we w…

I mean no doubt that life would have sucked in those situations, but there's no investment choice that would have saved you either. Guaranteed saving, no. But keeping an emergency supply of highly portable wealth in the form of gold worked surprisingly well for most of those historical examples. (The ironic exception being the USA where we confiscated people's gold under Roosevelt.)

It didn't work particularly well in Russia, either.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#988
post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.

Yeah this is dumb but it’s actually par for the course for firms I’ve worked at. Build up all the garbage during trading hours (and on days like this hope you don’t hit resource limits) then start collecting it and rebooting at the end of the day. Most services are shut down after trading/brought up again before trading. After trading you would have accounting and other processes that would take hours. These are not…

If it's dumb but it works, it isn't dumb.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#989
post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't that have to do with Japan's specific long term problems though?

Thankfully the U.S. doesn't have specific long term problems. (Edit to make this less flippant: like bubbles in education, housing and stocks.)

> like bubbles in education, housing and stocks

Those aren't long term problems if you compare them to Japan's. It has been 30 years+ since 1989, and I'd believe that is long enough time for the bubbles in US to correct themselves.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#990

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> keep a buffer in cash/high-interest savings account Where do you find such an account?

Discover's offering 1.6%. More generally, bankrate.com offers comparison shopping for banks, and includes online-only high yield savings. It has a bunch listed at 1.9%, and a few dozen at 1.6% or better: https://www.bankrate.com/banking/savings/rates/

Highly recommend discover. I heard capital one has good options too.
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