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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#821

Post by vkou »

dd36 wrote: post #662
oefrha wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you quarantine and the virus is controlled, then it looks like you panicked over nothing, because you took this huge reaction and nothing much happened. Nails it. You could be so good at your job that people think your job isn’t even necessary; or you could be putting out fires caused by your incompetence all day every day and people think you’re a hero.

Trump isn’t looking like a hero.

He is to his base. For now.

His base is, however, going to be disproportionately impacted by this virus.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#822

Post by hef19898 »

coldtea wrote: post #793
hef19898 wrote: post #764

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not how epidemics work. Even China was nowhere near these numbers. Stuff like that doesn't spread the way you assume it does. But ok, the source is your own calculations. Thanks for confirming.

> That's not how epidemics work. That's not how epidemics work when they are contained quickly. Europe has done a bad job at this. Epidemics in the past have killed many times as many as the percentages above.

Different diseases, different outcomes.

First, using the total population as a basis is just wrong. Some will certainly be immune to a certain degree while others are simply lucky.

Even very aggressive pandemics, hitting totally ill-prepared societies didn't infect every single person. Not even the black death managed to do so. So why do you think COVID-19 would end up doing that?

And using the 3.4% is another issue. Because you have the Wuhan rate, which is much higher than the rate eslewhere. And this thing is a moving target because testing was rather limted earlier. South Korea seems to be the best source to get mortalitiy rates due to their aggressive testing.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#823

Post by Yetanfou »

jfkebwjsbx wrote: post #784
Yetanfou wrote: post #758

This is supposed to be a trasnscription of some Whatsapp calls between medical personnel in the north and south of Italy where the northerners try to update the southerners on the situation https://files.catbox.moe/3ns6c1.mp4 This file is several weeks old by now, a search on the 'net finds a number of pages where the link is mentioned (including one from the 21st of januari 2020 - according to Google that is - hoax…

Facepalm. Are you really still claiming this is not real?

No, I am claiming that this specific sound file might not be real given that there are references to it from the 21st of january (i.e. way before it hit Italy) and given the stated incidence of cases in younger people while the narrative is that the disease is mostly mild in those under 50. There is no doubt that there is a pandemic going on, I can see it happen around me here in Sweden.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#824

Post by tomnj »

jonplackett wrote: post #791
tomnj wrote: post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone can get the flu, even those with flu shots

They are much less likely to get it after having the flu shot.

Absolutely, but to say medical staff can’t get or spread flu is false

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#825

Post by martin_bech »

hef19898 wrote: post #657
rorykoehler wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is an incredibly short sighted view. We need to be proactive not reactive. This virus is here and it's here in a big way. Positive cases are not the full picture. Median incubation period is 5 days. Italy is a warning and we're not taking it. We should all be in quarantine now so this doesn't get out of hand rather than wait for it to become uncontrollable and then trying to de-escalate it.

Ok, so you suggest every single person in Germany to be quarantined. Whether they have symptoms or not. Now that's what I call an over reaction.

No, thats beeing responsible.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#826

Post by rlt »

endorphone wrote: post #509
TeMPOraL wrote: post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll give you a different basis for a conspiracy theory: China got COVID-19 first. And got over it first. US and Europe are going to be devastated by it. I'm guessing Russia will fare no better. In the aftermath, who's going to be on top on the global scene?

What's the conspiracy? China didn't get over COVID-19. They're still seeing double-digit deaths daily and new infections. They're going to see recurring new networks and pockets appear repeatedly. Endlessly if the virus has endured in other countries. They aren't coming out on top of this, especially given the absolutely enormous GDP damage they've already endured.

It’s extremely far-fetched, but I think the implication is either China engineered the virus or at least allowed it to spread, either because they already have a vaccine/treatment, or at least know they can control spread among their population better than other superpowers. Not to mention the power they wield by being the world’s supply chain.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#827

Post by downerending »

tomp wrote: post #798
remus wrote: post #702

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump providing a shining example of this! https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/12370273563148697...

I don't get the criticism for Trump. He's just basically saying "don't panic" in his own way. That also seems to be consensus among the experts and on HN, judging by yesterday's "don't hoard" threads... (I disagree, but it seems I'm the minority.)

I find it weirdly reassuring--he's not an expert and isn't even trying to look like one.

The people that scare the hell out of me are the gaggles of PhDs and other "very smart people" who seem to think that we shouldn't be closing schools and working from home because reasons. Our organization doesn't even have paper towels in the bathrooms (It's bad for the environment!). Actual sanitation is not a priority.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#828

Post by airstrike »

igravious wrote: post #161
adventured wrote: post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is cause for optimism in the numbers out of South Korea and China. Even assuming China has lied about their numbers (population ratios with Italy and South Korea vs China make that plainly clear, they lied to a large degree on the numbers), if China has managed to bring it under control through their extreme quarantine measures, then we can prevent it from killing tens of millions. South Korea seems to have con…

Thoughtful and level-headed response. :) We might ballpark the number of global deaths – in the optimistic case† at between 20,000 and 30,000 souls. Not a global tragedy, on a scale of the recent Ebola outbreak, but warranting much more drastic action. There's a huge sense of urgency. We could have a vaccine before the next flu season in the northern hemisphere. † assuming not every country acts quickly when the time…

> We could have a vaccine before the next flu season in the northern hemisphere.

That's quite unlikely. We're looking at 12-18 months if everything goes perfectly according to plan and we get it right on the first try.

> nor acts as effectively as China

Only if you take China's numbers at face value, which nobody really seems keen on doing.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#829

Post by tomp »

licebmi__at__ wrote: post #819
tomp wrote: post #798

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get the criticism for Trump. He's just basically saying "don't panic" in his own way. That also seems to be consensus among the experts and on HN, judging by yesterday's "don't hoard" threads... (I disagree, but it seems I'm the minority.)

I think the POTUS should be held to a higher standard than this meme tier tweets. But hey, it have been almost 4 years, I guess we should be used to.

Sure, but what higher standard is that? The standard of "don't panic", currently followed by WHO and pretty much all heads of state (with possible exceptions being Putin and possibly Italy & Austria), or the standard of "panic", universally shunned by experts and wanna-be experts alike?

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#830

Post by downerending »

ceejayoz wrote: post #783
ALittleLight wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am extremely disappointed in the American government on this. We have had a significant warning and we've seen the virus in multiple countries and the response has been so lackluster. Why should we wait 20 days for things to get terrible before going to quarantines and lock down? Surely China and Italy have shown us our future. I partly think the problem is political. If you quarantine and the virus is controlled,…

> I partly think the problem is political. If you quarantine and the virus is controlled, then it looks like you panicked over nothing, because you took this huge reaction and nothing much happened. Yep. People do this with Y2K, for example. "Nothing happened, what an overreaction!" Nothing happened because an enormous amount of work was done in advance, but people don't see that side of it as it's reasonably hidden.

Don't think we know why "nothing happened". I think the remediation was generally worth doing, but that's just a guess. There is no final reveal that tells you whether or not it was. We'll never really know.
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