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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#511

Post by claudeganon »

arcticbull wrote: post #454
mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.

The case fatality ratio is dependent on slowing the spread of the disease such that the healthcare system isn’t overwhelmed and so that we have time to develop treatments (possibly a vaccine).

The US is not only doing effectively nothing to slow the spread, but isn’t even testing at the level necessary to assess relative regional threats and take necessary mitigation/containment actions.

Arriving at a result anything like South Korea entirely depends on us responding like South Korea, something for which the window of opportunity may have already closed on in the US. We’ll certainly find out in the coming weeks and months.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#512

Post by beambot »

cletus wrote: post #376
neural_thing wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

US fertility rate is approx. 1.8, well below population sustainability. If it weren't for immigration (a political policy question), the US would have negative population growth too.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#513

Post by dv_dt »

cletus wrote: post #376
neural_thing wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

America has all three of those except immigration is allowing for population growth; immigration that the Trump admin is busy reducing to zero it seems. And when you look at replacement births you have to think about all the economic conditions that cause people to decide not to have children.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#514

Post by m3kw9 »

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

You cannot time it, just ask yourself last weekend who could have guessed Russia would back out of the opec deal of limiting supplies?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#515

Post by kortilla »

aguyfromnb wrote: post #445
neural_thing wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

> Downturns can go on for decades. Exactly. It feels like we've swung way too far to the side of "put your money into the market and forget about it". We have no way of knowing what the future looks like. The average bear market wipes ~35% or ~4.5 years worth of gains from your portfolio. Avoiding even a bit of that can have a substantial effect on your savings in the long run. Of course, timing the market isn't easy…

Yes, and having winning lottery tickets matters, a lot. You might as well advise people to just avoid all of the days where the market goes down since that will make a massive difference to their returns.

Timing the market is just throwing the dice. Go down that path and you’ll be entering the world of gambling with all of the bad psychology that ensues.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#516

Post by ncallaway »

arcticbull wrote: post #454
mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

2% of humanity is absolutely, in no way, shape or form about to die. The Korean numbers are approaching 0.5% case fatality rate, and those numbers continue to fall. It's about the same as the flu, and no, the flu isn't killing 2% of humanity either. Y'all need to settle down and get back to work.

0.5% is still well over 5x as bad as typical flu. SK is closer to 0.7%.

SK also has a far lower recovery percentage (SK total cases: 7478, total recoveries: 118; 1.5% of cases have recovered, 0.5% of cases have died).

Compare to the worldwide CFR and recovery rate, which has a much higher CFR (3.5%). total cases 113,432, total recovered 62,494, 55% of world-wide cases have recovered.

That means SK is catching their cases through testing much earlier (which is great! This leads to both better containment and better clinical outcomes!), but it means currently they have a much higher percentage of "unresolved" cases than many other countries. We need to wait until we start seeing more recoveries in SK before we start celebrating too much.

I'm optimistic that there's a good example of a strong outcome when there's a robust response in South Korea.

(Data pulled from the John Hopkins global case tracker here: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#518

Post by hawaiianbrah »

kasey_junk wrote: post #448
ghouse wrote: post #344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Believe this is not a "law" but a "policy" Regardless, your sentiment is spot-on.

Its an enforcement policy directed by the SEC. Its effectively a law, you can’t opt out for instance.

Well, you can choose not to follow laws (but you'll face the consequences if caught!).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#519

Post by hrpnk »

tempsy wrote: post #342
fsloth wrote: post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or just buy index decade after decade... this of course does not work if you attempt to beat the index or have timespan that is short.

The index has become a bubble in of itself. It's also not as diversified as you would think when Microsoft makes up 5-6% of the S&P and over 10% of Nasdaq.

Other indexes, like the German DAX [1] have a hard cap at 10% per company.

[1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAX

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#520

Post by rlucas »

allovernow wrote: post #191
walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

No one will be able to time this. We don't even know if this is the start of a [global?] recession or depression. If you haven't already, put your retirement into bonds and hold on. Honestly it might be a good idea to grab some cash from the bank to keep at home - bank runs are not outside the realm of possibility, although we have credit cards and other internet based payment methods now so it's probably less of a c…

Dear Lord please DO NOT put your entire retirement into bonds right now.

Bond yields are at an all time low. That means prices are at an all time high.

This is not the time to massively rotate into an asset class at an all-time high price due to fear/risk aversion.

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