Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#421

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

Frost1x wrote: post #348

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

>Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists. I'm going to shamelessly borrow this.

[deleted]

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#422

Post by kibwen » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:13 PM UTC

1121redblackgo wrote: post #365

Frost1x wrote: post #348

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Bear markets are paved with the blood of optimists. I'm going to shamelessly borrow this.

I wonder if the inverse rings true as well. Bull markets are paved with the blood of pessimists.

The relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2270/

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#423

Post by jmpman » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:14 PM UTC

mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

cletus wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

Are those 2% that are about to die the consumers which drive consumption? Maybe in healthcare, but suspect 70 and 80 year olds aren’t buying a lot of new cars.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#424

Post by travisjungroth » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:14 PM UTC

virgilp wrote: post #412

mensetmanusman wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...

2% (maybe more actually) is the mortality rate of those infected. But so far infection rate was 0.001% ; it would need to be 3 full orders of magnitude worse to even approach an infection rate of 2%....

How long did it take Italy to go up three orders of magnitude in infection rate?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#425

Post by anigbrowl » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:15 PM UTC

bilekas wrote: post #180

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

Yes, they've been put in after previous panics. I've always thought it rather odd that there aren't any corresponding restrictions on sharp upward movement, since euphoria can be just as dangerous as panic.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#426

Post by alasdair_ » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:16 PM UTC

walrus01 wrote: post #188

Serious question, is anyone watching this carefully and trying to determine when things will bottom out (perhaps in a week or two), to buy stocks, ETFs, and such at the bottom of the dip? Hindsight is 20:20 of course, but there's a number of equities that one could have purchased shortly after the 2008 financial crisis that proceeded to make significant gains between 2009 and 2019.

I expect more crazy volatility for the rest of the month, followed by another drop after Q1 numbers come out (and a second, smaller, drop after Q2).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#427

Post by asdfman123 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

gameswithgo wrote: post #325

cletus wrote: post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

as usual, the financial advice is "who knows what to do good luck"

There's no good active trading solution here because no one knows what's going on. People occasionally make the right calls, but they also occasionally make the right calls on coin flips, too.

There's a reason for that: the only good solution is a passive one. Ignore the panic, hold, stay the course, and put more money into the stock market when it's down. The large majority of active traders do worse than the market average because of panic selling in situations just like this one.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#428

Post by A4ET8a8uTh0 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

wait_a_minute wrote: post #417

A4ET8a8uTh0 wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Without going into too much detail, short answer is yes. Most people don't seem to know how far away current setup is from 'free market' touted in school. It is weird given that this information is not hidden. It is just not widely spread.

I'm a fan of free markets and I'll be the first to admit that it's nonsense to have a black and white perception of the world. It's not either 100% free markets or state-driven economy. There's a huge world in-between both extremes. Being a fan of free markets simply means you err towards one side more than the other. Having common sense regulations and tools like circuitbreakers are fine with me. I wouldn't say it's…

Agreed. This is by far the most reasonable post I read today.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#429

Post by anigbrowl » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

apcragg wrote: post #356

kasey_junk wrote: post #328

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. This is just one of several places where the laws systematically favor the bulls.

You are wrong about that. See T5, T6, and H10 halts.

Those seem to me be to be directed more at price manipulation of individual stocks (eg pump and dump schemes) than restraining enthusiasm across the whole market. I'm open to correction on this (and will not demand a halt).

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#430

Post by asdfadsfgfdda » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 6:18 PM UTC

friedman23 wrote: post #324

leptoniscool wrote: post #241

The market was up over 30% last year, but GDP growth was certainly not 30%.

This can be explained by market consolidation. GDP and market returns are not supposed to be perfectly correlated.

I think it's better explained by interest rates dropping over 2019. There are now more savers with fewer opportunities to make a return on their capital. So even with constant corporate earnings, there are more savers trying to buy a share of those earnings.

Basically, the opposite of this explanation: https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-asset-prices-fall-when-int...