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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would they also circuit break on 7% increase, in order to give people time to come back from positive feelings?

No, because if the market is up 50% because we humanity has discovered an immortality serum, nobody is panicking. There's no downside in great news (other than the possibility of a quick reversal thereafer...)

Piling in on the buy side because of a fear of missing out counts as panicking.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#382
post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exchange is open from 9:30am to 4:00pm, but you and I are free to trade amongst ourselves at midnight on a Friday if we'd like

Aren't we also free to trade amongst ourselves during a market circuit breaker event?

Yes, but it's much, much slower to trade directly than through a market-maker in the exchange

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#383
post #186

Genuine question: They can just do that ? Issue a trading halt because they don't like the direction it's going ? > “There’s a reason why they have those circuit breakers -- it’s to give people time to come back from panicked feelings,” Seems strange that the market is kinda able to be manipulated like that. I'm not saying this is a bad move, just surprised that someone can do it.

"They" don't do anything - this is called a circuit breaker, and is automatically triggered. There are three breakers: L1 - 7% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L2 - 13% down before 3:25pm - 15 minute halt L3 - 20% down - halted for the remainder of the day Only a single L1 and a single L2 breaker can occur in a single day, e.g. the market falling below 7%, rising, then falling again will not trigger a second L1 br…

To address OPs point, someone did do this. Someone (or more accurately, a lot of people) stepped in and introduced an artificial construct that constrains trading under certain conditions.

It's not intrinsically a "bad" thing per se and it was something already established long before the current set of conditions arose. But none the less, it's an artificial constraint introduced on trade systems that is likely beneficial.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#384

It did the trick. Everyone is talking about it and my friends are buying.

When your friends lose a ton of money, introduce them to the concept of "catching the falling knife" [0]

[0]: https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/03/06/dont-catch-a-fa...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#385

This is creating one of the best buy opportunity ever. It's just sad that only the rich will benefit. The poor will just get poorer.

People with low EQ will get poorer because they'll panic. Most people of my generation who are in stocks at all are looking forward to a buying opportunity, a lot of us have only ever traded in up markets.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#386
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take this with a train of salt because I’m not an economist, but one of the most often touted general points of the need for a correction is the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio being elevated [1]. In other words, stocks are more “expensive” and thus ripe for a correction https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

> train of salt Nice Freudian slip.

Oops, my phone is not optimized for my cro magnon fingers...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#387
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think its time to buy yet. If we have a multiple month disaster that requires quarantining most of the population the market will fall further.

Don't buy after the first big city is quarantined. Maybe after the second or third... But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years.

> But know you are taking an incredible risk unless you are using funds you can hold in that position for years.

Isn't that the case whenever one buys equities? Why is now special? It's definitely less risky to buy now than it was in January.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#388
post #315

So, children of summer (there are many here who have only known the longest bull market in the last century), let me give you some free advice. If you're looking at this and wondering when to get in, to bargain hunt essentially, and you're asking yourself questions like "today? next week?", you need to step back and think again. Some points to consider: - If your time horizon is 10+ years out probably none of this ma…

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

Another good example of long-term decline is gold. In real dollars gold has never returned to its 1980 price. It went up 10x in the decade to 1980 and some people thought it would just go up forever. If you bought the dip after gold peaked, you're _still_ underwater.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would they also circuit break on 7% increase, in order to give people time to come back from positive feelings?

Looks like it's also on increases, yes: https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-bulletins/investor-...

Single-stock volatility halts happen in either direction, but market-wide circuit breakers only happen on down moves.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#390
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Nikkei is still ~50% below its 1989 high. Hasn't even approached that level since. Downturns can go on for decades.

I didn't think this could still be true but apparently you are correct [1]. Wow. That being said, there are factors to contribute to this: - Essentially zero population growth [2] - A government and a system that propped up an insolvent banking system that likely extended the downturn significantly [3] - A massive asset bubble that we really haven't seen the likes of, not even in the subprime era. [1]: https://www.ma…

Yep, over half of GDP growth is tied to population growth. If 2% of humanity is about to die...
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