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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#161

Post by Seenso »

sebastianconcpt wrote: post #157
Seenso wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I say this because halting tries to "cool down" emotion but it still "feels like" panic while making it all go slow would "feel kind of crappy yet normal" hence "buying" time to cool things down while still working. I don't think so. Halting would allow the traders to get a cup of coffee and switch to another mental gear. A slowdown would probably just keep them in gear and result in a lot of anxious refreshes and…

Immediately yes, it will keep them in gear, but it will have no consequence because the output would come forcibly delayed, so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does. Wouldn't be that with time, the next generation of traders for example, they will relax more when things feel bearish and put the "normal gear" when it feels bullish?

> so the result will come not so immediately. Hence being anxious has no payout and being cool does.

That's assuming people are way more rational and less emotional than they really are.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#162

Post by frandroid »

Insanity wrote: post #72
azhenley wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is possible for interest rates to be negative. Not that I'm recommending that to happen!

Something that actually happened in Sweden! Although it seems like it's not like that anymore: https://www.thelocal.se/20191219/sweden-abandons-negative-in...

Interest rates have been negative on deposits at the European Central Bank since 2014 ... The rate currently sits at -0.50%

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#163

Post by naveen99 »

vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

Futures markets are open 24hrs, but do close Friday - Sunday evening

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#164

Post by fancyfish »

pradn wrote: post #116
vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.

Yeah this is dumb but it’s actually par for the course for firms I’ve worked at. Build up all the garbage during trading hours (and on days like this hope you don’t hit resource limits) then start collecting it and rebooting at the end of the day.

Most services are shut down after trading/brought up again before trading.

After trading you would have accounting and other processes that would take hours. These are not done in real time and rely on daily downtime.

I honestly can’t imagine these firms figuring out 24/7 trading hours.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#165

Post by greedo »

ailideex wrote: post #79
aganame wrote: post #60

Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.

Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world econom…

It doesn't matter how many people eventually get COVID-19. What matters is when. If the ramp up is gradual, healthcare systems can handle it; if it's exponentially explosive, they'll be overwhelmed.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#166

Post by jkachmar »

vitaflo wrote: post #108
MS90 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like it's only happened once, 22.61% on Oct 19, 1987. Even the 1929 crash wasn't that much, though it did drop about 24.5% over two days, Oct 28 and 29, 1929. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...

The crash in 1987 is why they put these halting rules in place.

I don’t believe this is correct.

My understanding is that these automatic limit down rules were added in response to the flash crash in 2010, during which the Dow Jones lost 1000 points over the course of minutes.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#167

Post by feistypharit »

throwaway713 wrote: post #151
aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

> This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper This is a strong claim. Can you prove it?

The quantitative easing that was going on is a start...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-federal-reserve-is-stu...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#168

Post by paulmd »

ailideex wrote: post #79
aganame wrote: post #60

Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.

Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world econom…

> You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that?

Certainly doesn't help that he fired the US's pandemic response team a few years ago (that pesky "deep state" he's been ranting about). The rest of the world has their own responsibility to some extent but the US usually takes point on these kind of things.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-fire-pandemic-team/

He's also had the CDC sandbagging testing for it. He's been claiming coronavirus is a liberal hoax for weeks now, and anyone who contradicts him gets fired.

One of the side effects of that has been the CDC refusing to approve states that developed their own testing (as they are required to get CDC approval). Because they don't want to be seen as arguing that COVID is not a liberal hoax.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#169

Post by paulmd »

ailideex wrote: post #81
76543210 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2013 I wouldn't be predicting a recession. In 2017 after Trump announced tariffs and it was ~10 years since the last recession. I was concerned. Maybe stock prices were fine, but multiple companies I've worked for became unprofitable and got rid of tens of thousands of contractors. Recession? Definitions are toxic to the real problem.

> Recession? Definitions are toxic to the real problem. Okay, then lets not use them. Is what we are seeing now primarily a consequence of of COVID-19 or not?

> Is what we are seeing now primarily a consequence of of COVID-19 or not?

"is the 2008 crisis primarily a consequence of mortgages or not?"

In the grand scheme of things, no, it's a consequence of a bubbled economy that has been goosed with tax cuts, extremely low interest rates, and deregulation for too long and is overdue for a correction. The proximate cause is Covid but it just was the spark that lit the fire, there was lots of fuel building up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necessity_and_sufficiency

This is why you don't cut tax rates and keep interest rates super low when the economy is already roaring. Now we're out of options for dealing with a real financial crisis.

Trump of course understands none of this since he's a narcissistic con man who just understands "tax cuts = economy more better!". Insofar as he can be said to understand anything - he's not a man that can be described as intellectually curious.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#170

Post by saati »

westpfelia wrote: post #88
ailideex wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

I mean personally I think the whole opec thing has a little bit more weight behind it then corona.

The "OPEC thing" is a response to dwindling chinese demand, because of SARS-CoV-2.
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