Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet • Hacker News Board

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#111

Post by Mountain_Skies » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:52 PM UTC

secfirstmd wrote: post #80

treis wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

Good for short/medium term economy, terrible for the environment though unfortunately. So probably bad for the long term economy when carbon/environmental risks take effect.

Since when has Wall Street become focused primarily on the long term while ignoring the next few quarters?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#112

Post by aganame » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:54 PM UTC

ailideex wrote: post #79

aganame wrote: post #60

Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.

Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world econom…

How did you manage to read what I wrote to mean I was blaming Trump for COVID-19?

I am blaming him for taking Obama's legacy of stability and growth and destroying it for short-term profit. It would be a tragedy if he did not have to answer for that before the primary elections.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#113

Post by leemailll » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:56 PM UTC

vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

There is after hour market, but may not accessible to many

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#114

Post by adventured » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:56 PM UTC

treis wrote: post #74

fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

> Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy.

That is no longer strictly correct. The ideal oil price for the US economy is a balance between high and low, which provides a high degree of employment for the US oil industry, oil production and export expansion remain high, and provides a reasonable price for US consumers when it comes to gasoline.

Oil in a range of perhaps $45 to $75, is ideal.

At $25-$35 you're going to eventually hammer the US oil industry and its jobs, as the hedges fall away. That will hit the US economy negatively at least as much as the low oil prices benefit consumers.

Russia is playing a bad game of chicken with Saudi Arabia and US oil, claiming they can endure ~$30 oil for a decade. It's false of course. Their personal incomes have been falling for six or seven years in a row. $30 oil will contract the Russian economy at worst, and stagnate it at best, so it would be ten more years of declining living standards in Russia (the last thing Putin wants to see, so it's a false bravado on his part, as typical).

Saudi Arabia and Iraq will be crushed fiscally by low oil prices. Saudi needs $83 oil to balance their budget. Canada will take a modest hit as well.

China is the prime beneficiary as a massive importer with modest production, they're in the position the US was in previously.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#115

Post by dd36 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:56 PM UTC

westpfelia wrote: post #104

_ea1k wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, but it seems to me that increased production and lower oil prices are likely to create as many winners as losers.

Well... that might not be true. Were in a weird spot right now where banks handed out billions in loans to oil companies. And now it looks like a lot of these companies are going to be insolvent well before they can even start drilling. So were talking about big banks being hit hard with billions in loans not being paid.

They usually hedge out 18 months. It would take a sustained assault by SA and I really doubt they will have that much resolve.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#116

Post by pradn » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:57 PM UTC

vortico wrote: post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

So we can use garbage-collected languages in trading systems without turning on the garbage collector - just collect it all at the end of the trading day. I'm joking but this is a real technique.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#117

Post by jakeinspace » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:57 PM UTC

prmph wrote: post #71

rtkwe wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been skeptical of the whole yield curve as metric thing because it's not directly tied to the actual state of the economy directly just to the sentiment about the market X years in the future. Given how much we know the whole market is prone to group think, self delusion, and outright manipulation I've grown very skeptical of any indicator about the market that comes directly from the market.

But the actual economy _is_ still about sentiment, no?

From consumers and suppliers (to some degree), not so much from buyers of treasury notes.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#118

Post by aguyfromnb » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 2:58 PM UTC

robin_reala wrote: post #41

aguyfromnb wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Koyfin: https://www.koyfin.com/home

Maybe not: HEADS UP, YOU ARE USING A WEB BROWSER THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY KOYFIN This means that some functionality may not work as intended. We recommend using Google Chrome with our site.

I use Firefox and have no issues, though I only use it as a dashboard for the markets. There may be functionality that breaks that I'm unaware of.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#119

Post by polotics » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 3:00 PM UTC

treis wrote: post #74

fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

You are not fully correct with "Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy." This is true only as long as oil prices are high enough for producers to keep producing. Heard of shale-oil margins?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#120

Post by dannypgh » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 3:01 PM UTC

treis wrote: post #74

fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

There's also decreased demand - look at airlines, jet fuel uses 1.7 million barrels per day normally, and COVID-19 is causing fewer people to want to get on planes.

The fraction of the price drop that can be attributed to large producers flexing market power versus the decreased demand is a tricky thing to determine.