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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#101

Post by dariusj18 »

kaiabwpdjqn wrote: post #86
treis wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

That makes a lot of sense to me, but it doesn’t seem to be the case and I don’t understand why. Is it oil prices down -> large oil based economies at risk due to vastly lower margins -> global instability from inability to make payments?

Maybe it's because the US is now a massive oil producer, but there are a lot of oil companies in a lot of debt, so depressed oil prices will force them to go into bankruptcy. Next step will be US government propping up the industry somehow, IMO, either with a bailout or by buying oil at above market prices and increasing strategic reserves.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#102

Post by unlinked_dll »

tekkk wrote: post #31
facethrowaway wrote: post #16

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.

A crash over the coming days wouldn't cause a recession so much as reflect the start of one.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#103

Post by vikramkr »

VikingCoder wrote: post #69
facethrowaway wrote: post #16

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

The largest daily point loss in the Dow is -1,190. Today we briefly hit -2030. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the Dow is -7.32%. Today we briefly hit -7.9%. The 19th largest daily percentage loss in the S&P 500 is -7.18. Today we briefly hit -7.2%. If you don't classify that as a "crash," then please state your criteria for us to examine. It may not be a major crash, but it's definitely notable. https://en…

Point losses don't make sense because it's percentages that matter. The other metrics you mentioned do suggest this is of course a noteworthy market crash, but whether that becomes a recession or is anything to seriously worry about long run is a different question.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#104

Post by westpfelia »

_ea1k wrote: post #91
westpfelia wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean personally I think the whole opec thing has a little bit more weight behind it then corona.

Maybe, but it seems to me that increased production and lower oil prices are likely to create as many winners as losers.

Well... that might not be true. Were in a weird spot right now where banks handed out billions in loans to oil companies. And now it looks like a lot of these companies are going to be insolvent well before they can even start drilling. So were talking about big banks being hit hard with billions in loans not being paid.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#105

Post by marban »

slimginz wrote: post #87
marban wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tradingview

Quick link to the live view for DJI for anyone who doesn't want to search for it: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DJI

S&P Futures are probably the better pick for a 24/7 picture. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=SPX500USD

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#106

Post by ericb »

ailideex wrote: post #79
aganame wrote: post #60

Trump created a situation that's shaky as hell. I'm glad something happened that makes him suffer at least some consequences for once. Too bad it had to be this bad an event.

Ehh... I mean ... if the whole rest of the world was somehow unaffected by this ... then ... You do get that a reasonably conservative projection is that within a year most people in the world would have gotten COVID-19? How the heck did Trump do that? The only means of slowing COVID-19 has massive effects on the economy. There is now way in hell this would not have had a massively negative impact on the world econom…

Well, slowing this is in-control of competent governments, and mitigating the damage is entirely possible. For example, drafting retired nurse and respiratory care specialists and give a path for them to renew their licenses, building out temporary hospitals in-advance, using contract tracing and actual testing to stop the outbreak, rather than denials and calling it a hoax. If everyone shows up at the ICU at once, people die. Slowing it makes sense for tons of reasons. The lack of those things does fall on Trump, our denialist in cheif.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#108

Post by vitaflo »

MS90 wrote: post #73
Waterluvian wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to say it. It can't possibly collapse 20% in one day... can it?

Looks like it's only happened once, 22.61% on Oct 19, 1987. Even the 1929 crash wasn't that much, though it did drop about 24.5% over two days, Oct 28 and 29, 1929. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_...

The crash in 1987 is why they put these halting rules in place.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#109

Post by School-Cotton »

Waterluvian wrote: post #63
pureagave wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correct. 7% decline is a pause. If it drops 13% it will pause for another 15 minutes. If it drops 20% it will end trading for the day.

I'm going to say it. It can't possibly collapse 20% in one day... can it?

That's about how much it collapsed on Black Monday in 1987, so, yes, it can.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#110

Post by foota »

dobleboble wrote: post #95
aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

Do you have a reference for the claims about the repo market? I see so much FUD posted, and so few references to primary sources. Reader beware of grand proclamations and doomsday predictions, especially from new accounts, especially when they don't provide reputable sources.

Like... whether it happened? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-06/why-the-u...
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