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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#81

Post by ailideex »

76543210 wrote: post #67
ailideex wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

In 2013 I wouldn't be predicting a recession. In 2017 after Trump announced tariffs and it was ~10 years since the last recession. I was concerned. Maybe stock prices were fine, but multiple companies I've worked for became unprofitable and got rid of tens of thousands of contractors. Recession? Definitions are toxic to the real problem.

> Recession? Definitions are toxic to the real problem.

Okay, then lets not use them. Is what we are seeing now primarily a consequence of of COVID-19 or not?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#82

Post by gdubs »

aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

Another way to put it is that Coronavirus is forcing people to realize that we’ve been papering-over weaknesses with easy money for quite some time. That said, “economists have predicted 5 out of the last 3 recessions” — people have been warning against one for years now.

But the problem is that coronavirus is threatening the real “brick and mortar” economy — travel, restaurants, retail, etc. Its hard to address that without fiscal stimulus, and we haven’t seen much talk in terms of that yet.

Add to the list sub-prime auto loans, a huge amount of student loan debt...

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#83

Post by 0xcafecafe »

azhenley wrote: post #65
aswanson wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Correction is way overdue. Problem is, Fed has no ammo left with interest rates at near zero. We're in for rough days, people.

It is possible for interest rates to be negative. Not that I'm recommending that to happen!

Real rates are (and have been) negative. :/

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#84

Post by chrshawkes »

I don't know if it was a good bet but I moved all my 401k into money market accounts for the time being last Thursday. I feel like those who say I should ride the wave down are probably not telling me the truth. All indicators seem to suggest a 25% correction or more before the end of the year.

I've been buying stocks heavily on the latest dips and so far that is all down around 20%. I diversified investments in cruises, airlines, real estate, banks, tech and more. It feels like 2008 is happening all over again.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#85

Post by state_less »

ailideex wrote: post #47
aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

Agreed, let's not discount COVID-19. You're going to get a steady drip of ugly news for months. There is reality to the COVID-19 news too. I'm expecting heavy hits to airlines, cruises, theme parks, sporting events, etc... Profits will decline.

If you're not needing the money soon, you'll probably be fine with riding it out like you may have with the great recession. I'm pained by the stories of boomers and others who sold low during the great recession and didn't catch any of the gains when things started turning back around. This too shall pass.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#86

Post by kaiabwpdjqn »

treis wrote: post #74
fancyfredbot wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is widely being blamed on oil prices (edit: the virus would have been priced in last week to some extent, but the decision by Saudi Arabia to increase oil production happened over the weekend and hadn't been).

Oil prices going down is a good thing for the economy. I think people are confusing cause with an effect/correlation. Oil going down usually indicates a recession. Bad economy -> Lower demand for Oil -> Lower oil prices. In that case it's a signal/trailing indicator. In this case it's: Increased oil supply -> Lower oil prices -> Everything gets cheaper to make -> Increased economic activity

That makes a lot of sense to me, but it doesn’t seem to be the case and I don’t understand why.

Is it oil prices down -> large oil based economies at risk due to vastly lower margins -> global instability from inability to make payments?

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#87

Post by slimginz »

marban wrote: post #30
adreamingsoul wrote: post #25

(I'm not a trader) if I wanted to watch the market with a near-real-time dashboard, does that exist?

Tradingview

Quick link to the live view for DJI for anyone who doesn't want to search for it: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=DJI

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#88

Post by westpfelia »

ailideex wrote: post #47
aazaa wrote: post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

> This will be blamed on COVID-19 Good. Because I don't buy for a moment that without COVID-19 the situation would be what it is now. Hindsight is 2020 and predictions of doom and stock market collapse is a dime a dozen.

I mean personally I think the whole opec thing has a little bit more weight behind it then corona.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#90

Post by dev-ns8 »

spork12 wrote: post #9
pacerwpg wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When was the last time this happened?

election night 2016

Actually not true. This is the first time ever these circuit breakers were triggered during regular trading hours. Even still, on election night, stock futures were only under the 'limit-down rule'. You could have still been buying futures while that restriction was in place, so this is very much different and unprecedented
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