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Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

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Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#31

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

Hah not a crash? Well it kinda is, and if it keeps going further down it will definitely cause a recession. The oil price drop was a huge punch in the gut, and I wonder what happens to US oil production if it stays this low for longer. Or well any oil production that can't compete with these prices.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#34

For reference, someone might want to post a chart of the gains the markets have made in the past 5 years. I would hardly call this a crash.

Indeed. S&P 500 is still not even below of what it was in the end of 2018 after the last major instability. Partly thanks to this, 2019 was a marvelous year with stocks gaining almost 40% during a single calendar year.

My reading is we're in a normal correction that has been exacerbated by COVID and last night's massive fall (-30%) in oil price.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#35
post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

> Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." How does your story jive with the fact that the yield curves went back to normal? Either they are an indicator or they aren't.

According to Planet Money/The Indicator the normalization of the curve is part of the pattern that happens prior to recessions if I remember correctly

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#38
post #29

Slightly unrelated, but why does the stock market close each night? If trading was open 24/7, we wouldn't have large spikes like this every morning. We'd only have them when certain news is announced.

The market was not always driven by computers like it is now, and people running it needed to sleep.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#39
post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

Correction is way overdue. Problem is, Fed has no ammo left with interest rates at near zero. We're in for rough days, people.

Re: Trading halted as U.S. stocks plummet

#40
post #10

This will be blamed on COVID-19, but the problems go much deeper. Last year the Fed lost control of the repo market. the event was widely discounted at the time as an end-of-tax-year fluke. It wasn't. Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." Speculators have been trained over the course of 10+ years to buy the dip. The Fed has your back. What we're se…

> Six month ago, the yield curve inverted. People who should have known better said "this time is different." How does your story jive with the fact that the yield curves went back to normal? Either they are an indicator or they aren't.

The indicator is that it stays inverted for a quarter. It going back is not part of the indicator.
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