VCs love this virus!
Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
111–120 of 135 posts
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#112Sigh. It's not exponential growth, it's best modeled by a differential equation. Like population, the rate of growth is proportional to the amount present up to the current carrying capacity (that varies widely in the real world and with time).
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
>[...] and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news A couple of weeks ago I saw a comment alleging that the subreddit had a pro-china bias[1]. Personally, I've noticed some patterns that seem to be consistent with those allegations: * I frequent /r/all. when the subreddit shows up on /r/all (first or second page), it's almost always negative news about some country other than china * I visited the subred…
Just a month ago that subreddit was nothing but negative news about China, because China was doing a terrible job. Now China is evidently doing a good job and other countries are screwing up, so they're getting called out. Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy. It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.
> Just a month ago that subreddit was nothing but negative news about China, because China was doing a terrible job. Now China is evidently doing a good job and other countries are screwing up, so they're getting called out.
That explains the first two points, but not the last. It is also consistent with a "moderator takeover" that the original commenter claimed. As it stands, the subreddit hasn't gone full blown /r/sino so it's hard to definitively tell.
> Please don't turn every observation into the world into a conspiracy.
Actually I never claimed there was any sort of conspiracy, just a bias. /r/politics has a liberal (and probably bernie) bias, but I, nor most people would call it a conspiracy.
> It's possible for people to lack your nationalist fervor without being paid shills.
Sure. OTOH you don't seem to think it's possible for me to bring up this topic without being nationalist.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#114I've been tracking the coronavirus news for the past few weeks and have found https://www.reddit.com/r/covid19 to be good for tracking the latest scientific/medical publications, and https://www.reddit.com/r/coronavirus for general news. For transmission rates, this team is updating their modeling results often: https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... On twitter, @datagraver is publishing some…
> https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the ep…
Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers.
From today's new case report and death count (not to mention the 16M person lockdown of all of Lombardy), the worst may not be over for Italy yet (although I think they're doing the best job of the European countries from what I can see)... https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fffppj/italy_r...
Of the 133 deaths today in Italy, it appears to be primarily older folks atm, but the reports of running out of ICU beds is not a good sign (anyone in serious condition, regardless of age, requires intubation at least): https://i.imgur.com/VYWdjEI.png
For those that aren't taking COVID-19 very very seriously, I'd recommend reading a frontline report from an Italian HCW: https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/ffa2tf/testimo...
I'd also encourage everyone to take as many reasonable steps as possible to reduce the spread of infection (proper hygiene, avoiding crowds/public contact as much as possible, social distancing when unavoidable), as lowering the capacity pressure on the healthcare system will be key to saving lives, even if your personal risk is low.
We'll be able to see on a country-by-country basis soon which governments/societies have responded the best, but as the WHO put it, "this is not a drill," and I hope everyone here stays safe.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
3) will do a lot less harm than botching the response in the long run. AFAIAC none of that politicking matters.
So what? Why are you trying to assess the relative harm of a fabrication with anything at all? 3) is just nonsense that distracts from real discussion and yet there are people here defending it. I just don't understand.
What I'm saying is don't bother with it; it will die on its own. You're the one bringing that discussion to life here; I only intended to comment on the CDC's response, I didn't intend to involve whatever the "Democrats" said. (Scare quotes because you can't coalesce them as one being)
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#116Sigh. It's not exponential growth, it's best modeled by a differential equation. Like population, the rate of growth is proportional to the amount present up to the current carrying capacity (that varies widely in the real world and with time).
That is explained in the video
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
> https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/current-patterns-tran... I found this link very interesting. It seems to show the reproduction number is decreasing quite fast in Italy (before the latest quarantine measures, making me wonder if they were really needed). In Korea, it's also just below 1, which would mark the end of the virus propagation if this is confirmed. If these numbers are accurate, it seems that the ep…
Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers. From today…
Old people dying is not a good sign either.
Please show a little compassion for your elders.
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
This Business Insider article seems really pointless and vapid to me. Their criticism of reddit is they don't link to official CDC or WHO pages at the top of their search results? You might as well level the same accusation at Hacker News or any other internet forum. And the fact that Facebook and Twitter has those links does nothing to stop them from being full of misinformation themselves. I looked through /r/covid…
It is, and pulling out the marathon bombing case just shows it's a hit piece. Social media in general, and Reddit in particular, are commoditizing news publications, and displacing them as trusted sources of information. That's IMO why there have been so many such articles coming out regularly in the past few years.
You don't find it terrifying that anonymous unaccountable randos are displacing the mainstream media?
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#119Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why not get the news right from the primary source? The World Health Organization (part of the United Nations) publishes a daily situation report: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2... Their director also has statements published regularly: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail
The numbers from China are not reliable; there are only disincentives to proper reporting. The way the WHO has coddled China is not exactly commendable. Diversity of sources and information is good anyway, barring some caveats. There is more than just raw numbers at play; you need a variety of sources to see impacts on daily life, how people are preparing, etc. I follow CBC (Canada), some fellow humans on twitter, an…
Here are a two threads I just read that I think illustrate the breadth of perspective that isn't possible with just centralised reporting;
Re: Exponential Growth and Covid-19 [video]
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, certain countries seem to be doing a very good job at keeping the spread at bay. SK is doing the best job at mitigation. TW, HK, and SG have so far been very effective at containment. CN dropped to the ball to start, but it turns out they managed to take it seriously in time and it may be under control. Their biggest risk, ironically enough is probably going to be spread from international travelers. From today…
Old people dying is not a good sign either. Please show a little compassion for your elders.
I think that goes without saying and is the primary reason people should be concerned about slowing the spread irrespective of personal risk.
The elderly death rate is as expected though - the Chinese epidemiological numbers show a close to 15% CFR for 80yo+ - if you are older or have pre-existing conditions, it's even more important that you do your best to avoid catching this.