Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle • Hacker News Board

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#121

Post by zaroth » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:41 AM UTC

makomk wrote: post #116

partiallypro wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone keeps pointing to the lack of availability of kits in the US without mentioning the reason. The reason is that the CDC created its own kits instead of using the WHO kits. Why did they do that? Because the WHO kits were inaccurate. Accurate diagnoses happened only ~60% of the time, basically a coin flip. In China the tests were becoming such a problem, now they basically just count anyone with symptoms. That'…

That might be true about the accuracy of the other tests, but it's not the reason the CDC created their own. The reason, as I understand it, is simply that there was no WHO test when they started and there never would be unless some country got up off their ass and made one. As it happens Germany got their test finished first and the WHO used that, but the CDC were already well down the path of preparing and qualifyi…

The CDC appears to have made an over complicated test with the goal of being able to identify other SARS viruses beyond just COVID and screwed up the reagents in the process.

I’m not aware of evidence that the CDC designed primers are any better, and have read anecdotal evidence that they fail basic QA tests in open source design software used for this sort of thing.

This was compounded by bad regulations which hamstrung local labs from doing their own testing.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#122

Post by zaroth » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:45 AM UTC

xenospn wrote: post #35

whymauri wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A close friend of mine's wife paid their health insurance for decades, without fail. Their employer changed the insurance provider without notification, but somehow they continued paying the wrong provider. She recently got breast cancer, and now the new provider is denying all claims on the basis that she was paying the wrong provider. They are basically screwed now after maintaining a non-deliquent relationship wit…

My friend paid his health insurance for years. Got diagnosed with cancer (leukemia). Hospital said treatment would cost $750k. Insurance told him to go fuck himself and isn't covering anything.

After ACA there are no lifetime maximums. If it’s an FDA approved treatment which he is eligible for (e.g. there are not other first line treatments which should be tried first) then AFAIK an insurance company cannot simply refuse to pay.

Another option is to move to a Medicare expansion state and stop working, which will allow you to immediately qualify for free health care with generally some of the best coverage you can get.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#123

Post by Alex3917 » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:45 AM UTC

djsumdog wrote: post #88

joe_the_user wrote: post #43

Korea is doing drive-through testing with results available in three days. [1] That the US is still at the level of doing testing in a private and haphazard fashion is effectively criminal and seems likely to have a serious impact fairly soon. The US had a difficult time even testing all the workers at the nursing home in Washington where 11 people died.[2] [1] https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-korea-uses-…

I think part of it may be intentional. No matter what, and the end, you will get accurate numbers for death, and there's not much that can be done for viral infections, other than cancelling large events and other means of transmission. Some can't be avoided though (elections are happening in the US). Could the CDC intentionally be avoiding increasing testing to avoid panic? If the numbers are to be believed, no matt…

> there's not much that can be done for viral infections

There is a ton of research suggesting it's possible to reduce your risk of death by like 99%. There was metastudy on the front page of HN a couple days ago suggesting that vitamin D3 alone can reduce your risk of death by like 50% for those who are otherwise deficient.

The most recent Cochrane review on Vitamin C suggests that that alone can reduce your risk of death from pneumonia by like 80%.

Those aren't even the only things you can do before getting the virus. And once you get the virus there are like 6 different steps by which it kills you, and there are various things you can take to ameliorate what is happening at each step.

Viruses can replicate up to once a minute, so if you've already been letting it replicate inside you for a couple weeks before taking something to block viral replication then taking something to do that isn't going to do anything after the fact, but it's absolutely a misconception to say that there's nothing we can do for fighting viruses.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#124

Post by scarejunba » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:48 AM UTC

glofish wrote: post #110

scarejunba wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is mindless hysteria. And I suspect you know it. On the other hand, maybe you do, in fact, believe it. Let's make a good faith attempt to test how truly we believe in our predictions. I predict that the Gates Foundation permitting home testing in Seattle will not result in Seattle's public transit system only permitting COVID-19 tested individuals by the end of 2020. In order to back that, I will put up $1000 at…

Hysteria: emotional excess. Not sure why you assume "hysteria" on my side. My opinion could be wrong, but that does not make it a hysteria. Isn't the fear of COVID more a hysteria? As for your bet - it is overly specific - there could be thousands of similar, equally negative outcomes that would not be in Seattle, or a bus company, etc yet could all be triggered the same way. I would be most worried of people that wa…

The Gates Foundation is only issuing home testing kits in Seattle so it's hard to argue for elsewhere. However, I'm comfortable negotiating the terms. What are yours? I'd like to have a conclusion within a reasonable time so no bet lasting 50 years or anything, but otherwise, let's hear your offer.

EDIT: Due to old comments, I'm rate-limited on this thread so I actually cannot respond (sorry!). I'm interested specifically in the statement about the bus.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#125

Post by cmurf » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:49 AM UTC

IIAOPSW wrote: post #107

djsumdog wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think part of it may be intentional. No matter what, and the end, you will get accurate numbers for death, and there's not much that can be done for viral infections, other than cancelling large events and other means of transmission. Some can't be avoided though (elections are happening in the US). Could the CDC intentionally be avoiding increasing testing to avoid panic? If the numbers are to be believed, no matt…

I for one have full faith in the United States government to handle the situation competently and expediently. Facetiousness aside, that doesn't sound like the CDC. "Hide the numbers even from ourselves and hope it goes away" is the antithesis of what a scientist stands for. No way someone at the CDC wants that as official policy. But you know who has tons of influence over policy, an estranged relation with objectiv…

It's a mistake to consider this a political issue first. It is a mental health problem that risks widespread damage to civil and social trust mechanisms, and it infects everything including politics. Mental health problems making someone incompetent does not discriminate based on political affiliation. And it can be contagious. Its victims aren't Democratic or Republican or unaffilliated. The victims are rational thought, logical processes, facts, truth, trust, and civility. Damaging those things is intentional because they are basic requirements for accountability. Calling such conversations political, and thus proscribed, helps paper over and silence the necessary conversation. It's the exact opposite of partisan. You are exactly correct to call it dangerous, and it's only going to get worse.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#126

Post by glofish » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:53 AM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #39

glofish wrote: post #10

If anything sets a bad precedent, citizens starting testing themselves and each other, what could possibly go wrong (sarcasm)... Should we test for flu, cold as well? All other diseases? Should you only be allowed to be somewhere if you tested yourself within the last N hours ... etc .. because that is the next step, looking at each other with suspicion. When did you last test yourself? Did you not test yourself? Why…

You're not thinking clearly here. Home disease tests in the form of a thermometer are very common; the "next steps" you describe simply don't happen outside of pandemic situations, even though there's no technological or legal reason they couldn't.

the analogy is not even remotely valid

taking someone's temperature is a well-known concept with long tradition - fever is not something that started occurring in the last two weeks.

if people would did not know what fever meant and how they should act based on a reading on a thermometer what benefits would distributing thermometers have?

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#127

Post by ericd » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:56 AM UTC

RandomTisk wrote: post #54

xenospn wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My friend paid his health insurance for years. Got diagnosed with cancer (leukemia). Hospital said treatment would cost $750k. Insurance told him to go fuck himself and isn't covering anything.

Do you know what the treatment option(s) were? That seems extremely expensive even for cancer. Makes me wonder what my family plan's maximums are.

Doesn’t seem unrealistic for a list price. List price for a standard baby delivery and 3 day recovery around here can be up to ~$80k. Of course, the real insurance contracted price is $10k. The list prices are completely absurd, and it’s even more absurd that hospitals try to collect that clearly fictional amount from patients without good coverage.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#128

Post by glofish » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:58 AM UTC

scarejunba wrote: post #124

glofish wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hysteria: emotional excess. Not sure why you assume "hysteria" on my side. My opinion could be wrong, but that does not make it a hysteria. Isn't the fear of COVID more a hysteria? As for your bet - it is overly specific - there could be thousands of similar, equally negative outcomes that would not be in Seattle, or a bus company, etc yet could all be triggered the same way. I would be most worried of people that wa…

The Gates Foundation is only issuing home testing kits in Seattle so it's hard to argue for elsewhere. However, I'm comfortable negotiating the terms. What are yours? I'd like to have a conclusion within a reasonable time so no bet lasting 50 years or anything, but otherwise, let's hear your offer. EDIT: Due to old comments, I'm rate-limited on this thread so I actually cannot respond (sorry!). I'm interested specifi…

my offer is that in two years we look back at this and a reasonable majority of health professionals will say:

"you know that home testing by Gates was not such a good idea, overall it caused more harm than good"

My view is that is a dangerous idea to have untrained, panick people decide if they are sick or not. Too many things can and will go wrong.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#129

Post by graeme » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 12:59 AM UTC

djsumdog wrote: post #88

joe_the_user wrote: post #43

Korea is doing drive-through testing with results available in three days. [1] That the US is still at the level of doing testing in a private and haphazard fashion is effectively criminal and seems likely to have a serious impact fairly soon. The US had a difficult time even testing all the workers at the nursing home in Washington where 11 people died.[2] [1] https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-korea-uses-…

I think part of it may be intentional. No matter what, and the end, you will get accurate numbers for death, and there's not much that can be done for viral infections, other than cancelling large events and other means of transmission. Some can't be avoided though (elections are happening in the US). Could the CDC intentionally be avoiding increasing testing to avoid panic? If the numbers are to be believed, no matt…

> No matter what, and the end, you will get accurate numbers for death

Not necessarily. You only get accurate numbers for deaths if you test deaths. Some countries reporting zero cases may have had deaths that will never be reported. The US likely has also had unreported deaths.

Re: Gates Foundation program will issue home testing kits for Covid 19 in Seattle

#130

Post by palmy » Mon, Mar 09, 2020, 1:00 AM UTC

m0zg wrote: post #103

DangerousPie wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet somehow most other countries have still managed to come up with a significantly more competent response. Germany is tracing contacts of all cases and has capabilities to test 20,000 people per day. How many is the US testing right now? And that's a country with 1/3 the population. There are probably thousands of infections in the country already, we just don't know it yet.

> Germany Now try Italy or South Korea. Germany still has twice as many cases as the US, and 7.5x as many cases per million of population (12.1 vs 1.6 CPM in the US). Proximity to Italy doesn't do them any favors. To their credit though, they have zero deaths. If you order the stats by cases per million, the US comes in 40th, so containment doesn't suck too bad, compared to others. By deaths it's the 5th though - the…

The issue is that Germany is testing ferociously while in the US this is not the case. It's therefore likely that the US numbers are severely underestimated, while Germany's are much closer to their true value.

Worth noting that Germany not having any deaths despite such a large number of cases can also indicate that they discover the infection very early, and similarly the number of US deaths can indicate late discovery.