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30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

bloomberg.com

101–110 of 136 posts

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#101

The dividend yield doesn't matter (alone). The more common way to return cash to shareholder's is via buybacks. The actual 'yield' of the market should thus be calculated as div yield + buyback yield, giving the investor yield, which is what intellectually honest people should compare to treasury yields.

Right, but that just means dividend yield understates the misalignment, and we passed the weirdness point (for lack of a better term) a long time ago.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#102
post #95
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, at least you beat inflation

$500 CAD in 2000 would have to be ~$705 now in order to beat inflation, according to Statistics Canada - so his $8 return was not great. https://www.in2013dollars.com/canada/inflation/2000?amount=5...

He said "after taking inflation into account" which means it must have been like $713 CAD in the account ;)

Enough profit to buy a shitty meal at Tim's.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#103
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$500 CAD in 2000 would have to be ~$705 now in order to beat inflation, according to Statistics Canada - so his $8 return was not great. https://www.in2013dollars.com/canada/inflation/2000?amount=5...

He said "after taking inflation into account" which means it must have been like $713 CAD in the account ;) Enough profit to buy a shitty meal at Tim's.

Oops, I misread that! Thank you

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#104
post #13

Bonds are a commited fixed return, which means the value of bond goes up if the going rate for new bonds goes down. Thus bonds can be much more profitable than stocks when the marketing is going down. The central bank will drop rates, and thus any holder of existing bonds gets to sell their old bonds for more, maybe much more. Of course this is not the big driver for bond demand. Rather bonds are demanded by money ma…

> Bonds are a commited fixed return, which means the value of bond goes up if the going rate for new bonds goes down. > Thus bonds can be much more profitable than stocks when the marketing is going down. The central bank will drop rates, and thus any holder of existing bonds gets to sell their old bonds for more, maybe much more. > Of course this is not the big driver for bond demand. Rather bonds are demanded by mo…

Please don't quote an entire post, you're just adding noise. We can already see which post you are replying to. Quoting is for replying to a specific excerpt.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen 6 people in the last 2 weeks on wallstreetbets gamble away their student loans. The sad part is one guy will post their success of doubling their student loan, and it will just cause a bunch of younger inexperienced 19 year olds to lose tens of thousands to their own gambles. It's really sad. It's an addiction

Long term puts right now would be printing money for those kids. They just have to get a nice pair of diamond hands and some late April puts

Robin hands, you mean

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn’t make sense to pay off the mortgage when money is essentially free, where interest rate is lower than inflation. I believe it does make sense to invest what you can now in a balanced and diversified 60/40 portfolio. The current market turmoil is mere noise in the long term. The fundamentals are still solid. Companies continue to make profits and hire people.

>The current market turmoil is mere noise in the long term. Which is exactly my point. Interest rates could skyrocket to 20% or more for yet another unknown unknown financial black swan event. Or your home could be worth 25% of what it is today before you know it. The ground could literally open up beneath your house and swallow it hole, leaving you with nothing but that massive debt obligation. (As most home insuran…

I’m 48 and I rent a nice place at $2100/month. All my loot is invested in balanced 60/40. 0 debt.

Absolutely, if you’ve won the house lottery, cash out now, invest and rent a nice place.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen 6 people in the last 2 weeks on wallstreetbets gamble away their student loans. The sad part is one guy will post their success of doubling their student loan, and it will just cause a bunch of younger inexperienced 19 year olds to lose tens of thousands to their own gambles. It's really sad. It's an addiction

Long term puts right now would be printing money for those kids. They just have to get a nice pair of diamond hands and some late April puts

Maybe. They could also make a lot of money playing roulette. I'm not sure one is a better idea than the other, though at least if you lose a lot of money in a casino, they'll comp you a room and some meals.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#108

I'm not sure why this headline is news. Bond yields should be less than S&P dividend rates because with a bond, there is a much higher likelihood of getting your principal back (debt is senior to capital) that isn't there with underlying stocks of the S&P. Also, the underlying stocks of the S&P can cut their dividends to 0 tomorrow without warning, so you need to price this risk in.

[deleted]

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#109
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's best to avoid timing the market. It could do up x% on Monday or down y%. The people driving the real volume know way more than you or I.

The performance of actively managed hedge funds would disagree with that. Doesn't seem like anyone can manage it consistently https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/active-fund-managers-trail-t...

Yep people like to distinguish between “dumb money” and “smart money” but the truth is there is no such thing as smart money.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#110
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bond rates are supposed to track the inflation rate so it's nice to see it functioning as intended

Depends which "inflation" measure is being used.

Depends on which asset classes are used.
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