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30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

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Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recent drop is not very significant (a little over 10%). The Great Financial Crisis caused a 60% drop around 2008/2009. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/business/what-is-a-stock-...

I see, there was a similar drop in 2018. So not really that great of a fall.

yet. Nobody knows where the bottom is. The virus is only at the beginning of its conquest of the Western world.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#52
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in an interesting position related to this. In Canada, most people lock into their mortgage rate for 3-5 years. After that, you've got to renegotiate a rate but you're also free to switch banks. It's like starting over again at whatever you currently owe. I locked into mine 4 and a half years ago, so renewal is coming up this summer. Meanwhile, my home's value has skyrocketed (thanks to an insane Toronto housing…

Just pay off your mortgage and focus on things that you do understand well. It would not be prudent to invest the majority of your wealth into a recently broken bull market trend and try to catch the falling knife so to speak. The markets could recover in 10 years, or they could bleed out for another 10 years. If you actually had any inkling of which way the markets would move... you'd be retired already.

It doesn’t make sense to pay off the mortgage when money is essentially free, where interest rate is lower than inflation.

I believe it does make sense to invest what you can now in a balanced and diversified 60/40 portfolio. The current market turmoil is mere noise in the long term.

The fundamentals are still solid. Companies continue to make profits and hire people.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#53
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't explain why rates change. The delta can only ever be explained by people choosing to buy bonds instead of what they previously owned, or vice versa. Those people are definitely not trying never to lose any money at any cost, or they'd have bonds all the time and rates would never change.

Rates and prices reflect confidence in the future - essentially faith in the system.

Not quite - rates are going down not because people think they won't be paid back, but because they think their alternatives will return less due to lower growth and are shifting investments from there to bonds.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#54

I'm about to start investing with lump sum next week since stocks looks cheaper. I was thinking to go with 80% SWDA (global stocks [1]) and 20% AGGU (global bonds[2]). I'm a non US resident. - Should I consider to take less bonds? - Is lump sum a good idea, or should I DCA? [1] https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251882/ish... [2] https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/291772/ish...

I would not recommend taking investment advice from HackerNews. /r/PersonalFinance is a better place, or you can start reading forums like Boggleheads and blogs.

If you’re canadian I can recommend a couple of blogs I follow, otherwise I’m sure there are others from your country with specific advice.

If all else fails, paying a for-fee advisor that doesn’t sell funds can help you setup a plan for yourself.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#55

It's worth noting that most people nowadays don't buy bonds directly, you would normally hold them through an ETF/index fund like BND or TLT. Yields typically drop when there's a flight to quality (i.e., people selling stocks to buy bonds). The upward pressure on bond prices drives yields down because people are willing to pay more for lower yields. Bonds are almost like a future of expected return on capital. If bon…

But if you did want to buy bonds, any citizen can setup an account at:

https://treasurydirect.gov

Also you can buy iBonds and TIPS, which are protected against inflation.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#56
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm in an interesting position related to this. In Canada, most people lock into their mortgage rate for 3-5 years. After that, you've got to renegotiate a rate but you're also free to switch banks. It's like starting over again at whatever you currently owe. I locked into mine 4 and a half years ago, so renewal is coming up this summer. Meanwhile, my home's value has skyrocketed (thanks to an insane Toronto housing…

Just pay off your mortgage and focus on things that you do understand well. It would not be prudent to invest the majority of your wealth into a recently broken bull market trend and try to catch the falling knife so to speak. The markets could recover in 10 years, or they could bleed out for another 10 years. If you actually had any inkling of which way the markets would move... you'd be retired already.

> If you actually had any inkling of which way the markets would move... you'd be retired already.

Yeah, this is exactly what my sane, smarter wife says. I briefly worked in a startup that built tools for professionals in the finance world. What I mostly learned there was that I knew nothing.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#57

I'm about to start investing with lump sum next week since stocks looks cheaper. I was thinking to go with 80% SWDA (global stocks [1]) and 20% AGGU (global bonds[2]). I'm a non US resident. - Should I consider to take less bonds? - Is lump sum a good idea, or should I DCA? [1] https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/251882/ish... [2] https://www.ishares.com/uk/individual/en/products/291772/ish...

From your links I guess you're in the UK, in which case check out the Monevator site. It's UK specific financial advice, with an emphasis on FIRE.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#58

It's worth noting that most people nowadays don't buy bonds directly, you would normally hold them through an ETF/index fund like BND or TLT. Yields typically drop when there's a flight to quality (i.e., people selling stocks to buy bonds). The upward pressure on bond prices drives yields down because people are willing to pay more for lower yields. Bonds are almost like a future of expected return on capital. If bon…

> Bonds are almost like a future of expected return on capital.

I would argue this is true for all investments that are judged by their ability to make money.

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#59
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recent drop happened in only one week, it was really abrupt and breaking records. GFC didn't happen over 1 week, the bear market from GFC was from October 9/10, 2007 to March 9, 2009.

I don't think it broke any real records, the only one is the absolute point drop in the indexes, but that's a meaningless stat that will constantly be broken in the future as the economy grows - proportion is what's interesting.

My bad, it did not break records outside the 1987, dot-com and GCF crises, made a mistake there. However, I don't agree with the theory of infinite economy growth (as you said "constantly be broken in the future").

Re: 30-year U.S. bond yields less than S&P dividend rate

#60

It's worth noting that most people nowadays don't buy bonds directly, you would normally hold them through an ETF/index fund like BND or TLT. Yields typically drop when there's a flight to quality (i.e., people selling stocks to buy bonds). The upward pressure on bond prices drives yields down because people are willing to pay more for lower yields. Bonds are almost like a future of expected return on capital. If bon…

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