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Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

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Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#81

Post by codeulike »

Alupis wrote: post #65
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of whats going on.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#82

Post by porlex »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

I think if you keep in mind that it reports a specific thing, then it is useful.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#83

Post by pieix »

Alupis wrote: post #65
DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

Per CDC numbers [0], in the US the death rate of the flu for the 2018-19 season was roughly 0.1%, an order of magnitude lower than the number quoted above.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#84

Post by dougmwne »

codeulike wrote: post #80
SkyPuncher wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's…

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of…

I am also waiting to see a study on the final serious/fatal case rate on the Diamond Princess. Since that was a heavily monitored population given a high standard of care it should be a good indicator of what western countries are in for. Since the ages of the passengers will be known, they can age-weight the statistics to better compare to the general population. 706 infected passengers is a reasonable sample size.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#85

Post by codeulike »

dougmwne wrote: post #84
codeulike wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of…

I am also waiting to see a study on the final serious/fatal case rate on the Diamond Princess. Since that was a heavily monitored population given a high standard of care it should be a good indicator of what western countries are in for. Since the ages of the passengers will be known, they can age-weight the statistics to better compare to the general population. 706 infected passengers is a reasonable sample size.

They would be mostly be old though. I would imagine very few people under 50 were on that ship. And the virus is known to be worse the older you are.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#86

Post by marvin »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #76
lhorie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

CDC’s lackluster response is absolutely confounding. One could suspect political involvement, but I can’t see who would stand to benefit.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#87

Post by Alupis »

pieix wrote: post #83
Alupis wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

Per CDC numbers [0], in the US the death rate of the flu for the 2018-19 season was roughly 0.1%, an order of magnitude lower than the number quoted above. [0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

That's interesting! Thanks for the link. It only proves my point further. From your link, 34,200 people died from the Flu in the US last year - and not a single person is panicked about those numbers.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#88

Post by Alupis »

codeulike wrote: post #81
Alupis wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem here is, from what doctors seem to be saying, there's a massive amount of the population that has or has had COVID-19 and will never know - since the symptoms in an otherwise healthy adult are similar to the common Flu. So that death rate is likely far, far lower than what it seems. The flu kills between 15-60k people in the US every year, and it's around 1% fatality rate (and nobody seems overly concerne…

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of…

I'm fairly confident if we started testing everyone with Flu-like symptoms, we'd show numbers even lower than the 0.75% in South Korea. It's just not as deadly as was initially reported.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#89

Post by dantillberg »

wiredfool wrote: post #64
plopz wrote: post #10

I really dislike these maps that use circles. The circles overlap, are hard to reason about spatially and the size seems to be an arbitrary scale without meaning.

The thing that drives my OCD nuts is that in Europe, all of the circles are centered the centroid of the country, except Germany.

Weird. Is Germany's circle at the centroid of West Germany, maybe?

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#90

Post by lhorie »

alexandercrohde wrote: post #76
lhorie wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compli…

It's inaccurate because the US is not testing people with symptoms who certainly would have been tested in other countries. South Korea has performed over 100,000 tests. NYC has performed ~ 35. [1] I'm really curious what possible reason there could be for that. Regardless, there is no reason to believe "tested cases" is going to give a remotely accurate picture of "actual cases." 1. https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/hea…

You can't realistically track "actual cases" accurately anyways. For example, people might not go to the hospital. This is a well known challenge with population estimation e.g. domestic violence numbers)

What you seem to be getting at is that a) this chart doesn't display the total number of tested cases and b) external reports of number of tested cases point to very low number of tests in the US

But that's not a reporting problem, it's a risk/cost analysis problem by the part of the responders. Yes, you could in theory test everyone in the country every two weeks, but it would arguably be very wasteful and impractical to do so, so CDC/hospitals/etc need to figure out what is the right balance as the epidemic unfolds. Whether they are doing a good job is indeed debatable, I agree.

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