Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard • Hacker News Board

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#51

Post by ck2 » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 3:51 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

At first I thought US numbers were ridiculously wrong out of poor accounting but it is becoming increasingly obvious there is a massive coverup from the top down of the administration.

They are likely waiting for tests to be privatized so then they can claim numbers can't be released because they are private.

Except deaths will be recorded, so this is going to backfire badly, ie. there will only be 1000 tests but 1000+ people will have died. The numbers are going to explode at some point, especially in Washington State

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#52

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 3:55 PM UTC

MiguelVieira wrote: post #14

plopz wrote: post #10

I really dislike these maps that use circles. The circles overlap, are hard to reason about spatially and the size seems to be an arbitrary scale without meaning.

Also only seems to show the cumulative counts, rather than the counts per day, per region, which makes it impossible to tell where the situation is improving or deteriorating.

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#53

Post by el_cujo » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 3:55 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

I agree that it's probably not a 100% accurate picture, but if you included in the "known cases" every single person who stayed home out of paranoia because they had a stuffy nose, then you'd have the opposite problem of numbers being bloated and overblown. The media is already chomping at the bit to sow fear and paranoia in exchange for views, I'm ok with looking at data with the understanding that it's probably underrepresented versus data that is probably just a complete guess. In an ideal world, yes, every single hospital would have thousands of test kits on hand to test everyone but we aren't there yet.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#54

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:01 PM UTC

claudeganon wrote: post #15

This map seems effectively useless in the US, given absence of meaningful testing. Frontline nurses, treating COVID-19 patients , are having their tests stonewalled and delayed by the CDC: https://act.nationalnursesunited.org/page/-/files/graphics/N... I’ve seen multiple people referencing it to prove the absence of real threat in the US, which seems beyond absurd at this point.

[deleted]

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#55

Post by whatshisface » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:01 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

According to this estimate[0] based on viral mutations, there were 600 cases in Seattle on March 4th. That puts the multiplier at about 20x cases per confirmed case. With an estimated doubling time of 7 days[1], that's about one month worth of spreading.

(Disclaimer: all numbers approximate, high uncertainty everywhere.)

[0] https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ [1] https://bedford.io/projects/ncov-phylodynamics/

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#56

Post by LandR » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:02 PM UTC

TacticalCoder wrote: post #26

Svip wrote: post #16

I wish they also separated European countries by subnational jurisdiction. In the US they do it by cities, surely they should be able to separate Italian provinces, French departments and German states. They are reported like that in the news. I mention this because it's particularly northern Italy that's hard hit, not southern Italy. I am still planning on travelling to southern France (by car!) around Easter, and I…

> I also think travelling by car is a safer option, both for me and others around me. I thought about it because I'll need to drive a long drive in two days (across France). I'm taking throwaway gloves with me... Inside the car I'll be fine (and people outside the car too) but... A gas station has to be one of the riskiest place to catch the virus because you are forced to touch the gas pump. And that's the same for…

I know here most gas stations have a dispenser of disposable gloves you can use at the pump.

Even with no virus kicking around holding a fuel pump is horrible, your hand stinks afterwards!

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#57

Post by jcadam » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:03 PM UTC

claudeganon wrote: post #38

jcadam wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Burn two weeks of PTO when you may not even be sick. I wonder what the compliance rate is?

Yeah, self-quarantining went great in New Hampshire: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/04/us/coronavirus-new-hampsh...

That's really bad - the guy even knew he was sick. I wouldn't have gone to a party with a fever no matter what virus I was hosting.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#58

Post by eth0up » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:09 PM UTC

This (https://ncov2019.live/map) started as the best, most (practically, conveniently) informative and updated "dashboard" I've found. It was posted to HN several times (where I discovered it), but underwent some curious changes over the last few days. Initially, it showed all known events and included links for additional information. Then, peculiarly, all the cases in Florida disappeared with no trace, and now the southern US seems to have been scrubbed of accounts.

It was produced mostly by a highschool student in WA.

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#59

Post by lhorie » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:09 PM UTC

alexandercrohde wrote: post #27

Unfortunately garbage-in -> garbage-out. That chart shows US at 233 confirmed cases. According to NYT, over 10x that number are self-quarantined in NYC alone [1]. Now it's technically true that those cases aren't medically 100% factually confirmed, because NYC has only performed 35 tests total so far. But it gives a very inaccurate picture of reality. Garbage in, garbage out. 1. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/nyr…

Why is it inaccurate to state the number of confirmed cases, over reporting the number of self-quarantined? If I go to the hospital w/ flu-like symptoms and they tell me to stay at home just to be safe and it turns out I just got another disease, do I count towards the self-quarantine numbers? Does my family? If I work from home by choice to avoid exposure to public places, does it count? Does the number track compliance rates? Are we really getting accurate meaningful data from that measurement or are we feeding a bias towards alarmism?

Re: Johns Hopkins CSSE Covid-19 Global Case Dashboard

#60

Post by vonmoltke » Fri, Mar 06, 2020, 4:12 PM UTC

DennisP wrote: post #40

Deaths / Deaths + Recoveries gives a 5.7% death rate. Obviously there are mild cases that are never diagnosed, but it seems if you get sick enough for a confirmed diagnosis, your risk is higher than generally reported.

This is only true if you assume the unresolved cases will resolve in the same ratio as the currently-resolved cases. This ratio has been dropping as more cases are diagnosed.