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WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

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Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#61

Post by JumpCrisscross »

allovernow wrote: post #52
ardit33 wrote: post #42

1. I would not trust anything coming out of WHO at this point. Even Germany called it a pandemic, yet they are not willing to call it such (perhaps due to political influence/pressure, or just incompetence). This looks more like a 'panic containment' type of statement than the truth. 2. The R0 of seasonal flu, is about 1.5, Covid-19 has a R0 between 2.6 and 3.5*. (yet to be determined), which is much more contagious…

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon... > The [class a] bonds default if pandemic-related deaths reach 2,500 in a single nation with an additional 20 or more deaths confirmed in an overseas country, according to the bank's prospectus. > The [class b] bonds pay 11.5% annually, but reach default after 250 deaths. The bonds' payout rate scales with the number of additional countries that experien…

I don’t see it. Pandemics are objectively defined. The bonds’ principal pays for relief in the event of a pandemic, meaning a venal WHO would lean towards categorising non-pandemics as pandemics.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#62

Post by joshgachnang »

roywiggins wrote: post #45
jcadam wrote: post #10

"To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach." Ah, so there aren't hordes of asymptomatic carriers out there, whic…

The confusing thing is that the Diamond Princess data points in the other direction: more asymptomatic cases, and a significantly lower case fatality rate, than the WHO numbers. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-r... The WHO says they haven't found many asymptomatic cases (despite looking), but apparently lots of the cruise ship cases were. The WHO estimates a mortality rate over 3%, but much…

The Diamond Princess is a pretty small sample size to be extrapolating the mortality rate.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#63

Post by pezo1919 »

eli wrote: post #49
pezo1919 wrote: post #43

To me it seems WHO was downplaying it the whole time. First lie is China will be able to contain it and now they don't even call it a pandemic. Also R0 is much higher then for flu. I really hope the new idea about transmissability is true but if it is I don't get why China treats it as they do. Wuhan is locked for 40+ days. I can't trust WHO now related to Covid-19, especially after what happened to stock. Of course…

Did they really say China would be able to contain it?

Could not find the exact reference, but here are some other bullshit from that time: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178015.shtml That "transparency" and "openness" were quoted a lot but it was not the case at all. Many chinese doctors and journalists were shut down.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#64

Post by [deleted] »

allovernow wrote: post #52
ardit33 wrote: post #42

1. I would not trust anything coming out of WHO at this point. Even Germany called it a pandemic, yet they are not willing to call it such (perhaps due to political influence/pressure, or just incompetence). This looks more like a 'panic containment' type of statement than the truth. 2. The R0 of seasonal flu, is about 1.5, Covid-19 has a R0 between 2.6 and 3.5*. (yet to be determined), which is much more contagious…

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/pandemic-bon... > The [class a] bonds default if pandemic-related deaths reach 2,500 in a single nation with an additional 20 or more deaths confirmed in an overseas country, according to the bank's prospectus. > The [class b] bonds pay 11.5% annually, but reach default after 250 deaths. The bonds' payout rate scales with the number of additional countries that experien…

[deleted]

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#65

Post by mrb »

"First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far."

Ok let's look at the data he summarizes in the next sentences:

"With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19. Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days."

That's 1% of reported cases. But evidence shows there are many more unreported cases, and these cases tend to be asymptomatic, or very mild. Peer-reviewed research has estimated there are 11x to 38x more cases than detected:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...

https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419

Another study estimates there are 19x to 26x more cases than detected: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...

These 3 studies are all the studies I know of that try to estimate the rate of underascertainment. I did not cherry-pick these to make a point.

Anyway, this suggests the vast majority of cases might be, in fact, just like influenza: asymptomatic or very mild. And there are no reason to believe they are not major drivers of transmission.

"Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases. Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all."

China: the only reason they find so few new cases in March (only 100-200 new cases per day) is not because COVID-19 is less contagious than the flu, but because they implemented extreme response measures including the complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities, cancellation of public events, closing all schools nationwide, prohibition of attendance at work, etc. So of course COVID-19 is spreading slower than the influenza. If China implemented these measures during influenza season, they would likely drastically reduce the number of influenza cases.

Singapore: COVID-19 has, so far, been contained (less than 110 cases country-wide) with strict isolation procedures for patients. I am not sure this is evidence that COVID-19 is less contagious than influenza.

Ghana: it is not even a country rated "high risk" by https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... but just "moderate risk". And there are no known cases of COVID-19. So in my opinion, it is insufficient evidence to suggest COVID-19 is less contagious than the flu.

"The only way to be sure is by looking for COVID-19 antibodies in large numbers of people, and several countries are now doing those studies. This will give us further insight into the extent of infection in populations over time."

That's the only statement from the WHO Director-General that makes sense: we need more evidence to be sure we can correctly quantify COVID-19's contagiousness.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#66

Post by function_seven »

allovernow wrote: post #37

Just a reminder that this is coming from an organization that 1. Receives part of it's funding from China 2. Has been using China's clearly manufactured numbers since day 1 3. Has yet to officially call this a pandemic though it has met the criteria for weeks ($425MM in pandemic bonds would default) [0] 4. Is led by a man (the very director being quoted) who was accused by the NYT of covering up no less than 3 choler…

Regarding your #3: Wouldn't WHO gain that $425MM if they triggered the default on those bonds?

> If certain criteria are met, the bonds' principal is transferred to the World Bank's Pandemic Emergency Financing Facility (PEF) to fund containment and relief efforts.

To me, that seems like quite the incentive to declare this a pandemic. If doing so would unlock that funding.

But, there's details. Just declaring "pandemic" isn't enough. The bonds have numerical thresholds that must be met. (e.g. 20 deaths in 2 or countries).

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#67

Post by DreamSpinner »

It's interesting that the notes regarding transmission efficiency are not present in the similar speach given on the 4th of March (as opposed to the article link, which is the 3rd of March).

I'm not sure what to make of it. It might be pure paranoia on my part - but it is an interesting change in the welcome statements that are otherwise generally similar.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-...

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#68

Post by fspeech »

tylerhou wrote: post #44
mantap wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't share your optimism. The virus has been able to successfully evade e.g. testing people's temperatures in airports. It doesn't really matter if there are asymtomatic carriers or not, it doesn't matter whether people eventually get a high fever. What matters is whether people with non-specific/mild symptoms (a dry cough) can pass on the infection. And the answer is emphatically yes.

Bypassing airport temperature tests is an incredibly low bar because it rarely catches other diseases. Anecdotally, I've travelled multiple times with people who have had fevers and entered countries with routine temperature screening and haven't been stopped. Human body temperature is also so variable that a small fever is masked by the margin of error.

You don't need to catch everyone. You just need to bring R0 to below 1. If R0 is a little over 2 in the first place you just need to catch a little over 50% of the infected with all your actions (in addition to temperature checking) to eventually control the epidemic. The better you do the sooner you get it under control.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#69

Post by School-Cotton »

d1zzy wrote: post #39
CyanLite2 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All Countries except for South Korea are NOT counting the mild or asymptomatic cases. When you look at the SK numbers, 5,621 confirmed cases and 35 deaths. That puts the death rate at 0.6% (same as severe influenza season). Everybody just needs to chill.

Even if COVID-19 fatality rate is _lower_ than the regular flu, if it infects people faster to the point where those very few severe cases cannot get the help they need because of health services being overwhelmed then it will potentially be resulting in a lot more deaths than the flu.

I don't understand people downplaying this by saying it's only as bad as the flu. The flu is really fucking bad!

Before widespread flu vaccination, it killed 50 million people in just one outbreak (Spanish flu). That's more than have been killed by HIV/AIDS combined in history. And we have no vaccine against COVID-19.

Even nowadays, it still kills tens of thousands of people every year.

Re: WHO Director: "Covid-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza"

#70

Post by dpau »

ardit33 wrote: post #42

1. I would not trust anything coming out of WHO at this point. Even Germany called it a pandemic, yet they are not willing to call it such (perhaps due to political influence/pressure, or just incompetence). This looks more like a 'panic containment' type of statement than the truth. 2. The R0 of seasonal flu, is about 1.5, Covid-19 has a R0 between 2.6 and 3.5*. (yet to be determined), which is much more contagious…

Thank you for this.

Something that confuses me is, why would governments minimize the risk and not take necessary steps to slow the virus? It seems obvious that the short-term economic gains resulting from such an approach are vastly outweighed by the negative consequences of an extended and prolonged outbreak. I'm missing something.

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