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Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

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Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#51

Post by Jwarder »

scottlocklin wrote: post #48
Jwarder wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SARS, MERS and so on, which ultimately turned out to be nothingburgers As a reminder, SARS and MERS were contained thanks to massive international effort to identify the spreaders, quarantines (including whole hospitals), and restrictions on air travel.

There's no question that quarantines prevent the spread of disease: there is plenty of question as to whether the disease justifies it; including in the cases of SARS and MERS. For example: most new flus come out of China due to their agricultural practices; building a wall around China until they change the practices and isolating people in the rest of the world population who get it would actually remove the flu fr…

If given the choice between modern disease control and a wall I would choose modern disease control.

Your example of the flu is interesting. If humanity had modern resources to fight the ur-flu would it be worth the effort? How many lives would be saved over the generations if the flu hadn't become a common threat?

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#52

Post by AlchemistCamp »

Apocryphon wrote: post #31
AlchemistCamp wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthy doctors your age have already died from it.

At a 0.2% rate. Nothing to welcome, sure, but also not something worth defeatism.

From where are you drawing that rate? I was speaking of Dr. Li Wenliang, aged 33, who was one of the initial 8 doctors to raise the alarm and try to stop this epidemic in Wuhan months ago.

From everything I've read, both in Chinese and English, considerably more than 1% of the medical personnel at the front lines have perished.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#53

Post by NicoJuicy »

raxxorrax wrote: post #33
NicoJuicy wrote: post #5

Mass hysteria ? I don't think that's the case, people are carefull, but don't seem to be scared. ( Belgium)

True, but the general reaction was severe. Large events were cancelled and people quarantined. To be honest, I am due for a skying trip in three weeks and the most fear I have is that they just shut down the location and don't let me in (bad) or don't let me out again (not that bad).

Big events are getting cancelled and people quarantined, correct.

Seems to me that's a good thing, that is stopping the spread / not allowing it to go out of control.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#54

Post by NicoJuicy »

fourstar wrote: post #21
NicoJuicy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form ( I thought it was logarithmic even before yesterday). The amount of casualties seem to be in control. Okay, Iran is acting stupid. But we don't even do business with them. Tourism is minimal. Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old)

> Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old) 32 years on Earth and you're unfamiliar with mutation?

X years old and not aware of statistical probability?

Mutation can happen if there are many generations in between. My option could have 1-3 generations in between which is far more realistic in a "controlled environment" than in a uncontrolled one.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#55

Post by yongjik »

Loughla wrote: post #19
moultano wrote: post #9

The author is not an epidemiologist, and does not appear to have any other relevant expertise to assess the situation. The people who do have that expertise consistently say that it is very serious. Cases have declined in China only because of the extreme measures they undertook to stop it. (In other words, "hysteria.")

>Cases have declined in China only because of the extreme measures they undertook to stop it. I mean, you can't really say the author can't assess the situation because of a lack of expertise, and then immediately assess the situation with a lack of expertise. I'm assuming that the quarantine helped, but also it might not have helped. That might have just been the natural progression of this disease. We don't know, a…

Considering China has had only ~80k cases, and Wuhan alone has 11M people, it is fair to assume that the disease certainly did not run its natural course.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#56

Post by anthonypasq »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #42
outside1234 wrote: post #15

I don't know - a 15% mortality rate for 80+ year olds is pretty bad. Or do their lives not count? Or are we not responsible for trying to slow the spread?

and it's up to around ~6% - 10.5% risk for those with a precondition. If this estimate[0] turns out to be correct, everyone will either have been directly affected by loss of somebody, know somebody who lost someone, or are dead themselves. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE confirmed cases | DEATH RATE all cases Cardiovascular disease | 13.2% | 10.…

You forgot to include the assumption that everyone on the planet will eventually be infected.

Get real.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#57

Post by halfmatthalfcat »

robjan wrote: post #26
NicoJuicy wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the curve is almost not rising, even in linear form ( I thought it was logarithmic even before yesterday). The amount of casualties seem to be in control. Okay, Iran is acting stupid. But we don't even do business with them. Tourism is minimal. Hell, I'd even prefer to get it, so I'm over it ( 32 years old)

This isn't like the common cold. There have been cases of reinfection reported already.

They are most likely not reinfections. You can still have the virus reproducing in your body, yet have recovered and are no longer spreading it. If you’re in this post-infection period, you’ll still intermittently test positive (especially when your stool is sampled). This is similar to EBV or HIV.

These tests (RT-PCR) also aren’t sensitive enough to test whether the virus is alive or dead, they test for the presence of genetic material.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#58

Post by beamatronic »

drewg123 wrote: post #28
beamatronic wrote: post #16

Anecdotally, I see attitudes among friends and family towards Coronavirus split along the same lines as whether they support or despise Trump.

Which way does the split go? Trump supporters are panicking about the virus, or not panicking?

Trump supporters are downplaying the whole thing.

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#59

Post by [deleted] »

anthonypasq wrote: post #56
DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and it's up to around ~6% - 10.5% risk for those with a precondition. If this estimate[0] turns out to be correct, everyone will either have been directly affected by loss of somebody, know somebody who lost someone, or are dead themselves. [0] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... PRE-EXISTING CONDITION | DEATH RATE confirmed cases | DEATH RATE all cases Cardiovascular disease | 13.2% | 10.…

You forgot to include the assumption that everyone on the planet will eventually be infected. Get real.

[deleted]

Re: Mass hysteria is making coronavirus worse than it is

#60

Post by udkyo »

scottlocklin wrote: post #48
Jwarder wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SARS, MERS and so on, which ultimately turned out to be nothingburgers As a reminder, SARS and MERS were contained thanks to massive international effort to identify the spreaders, quarantines (including whole hospitals), and restrictions on air travel.

There's no question that quarantines prevent the spread of disease: there is plenty of question as to whether the disease justifies it; including in the cases of SARS and MERS. For example: most new flus come out of China due to their agricultural practices; building a wall around China until they change the practices and isolating people in the rest of the world population who get it would actually remove the flu fr…

SARS and MERS killed ~1 in 10 and ~1 in 3 of the people who contracted them.

If a contagious disease with a 34% mortality rate don't justify containment. What does?

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