81–90 of 116 posts
Only thing interesting about this virus is 1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests, and 2) We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic
>1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests Did they stop protesting? Going into protest (crowded spaces, close contact with others) seems like a bad idea during a pandemic.
Only thing interesting about this virus is 1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests, and 2) We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic
>We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic I've heard mixed things about China's reporting on it. It's more difficult to trust authoritarian regimes by default, but even good preparation can falter if there isn't honest information. Everything sort of followed China's information in the initial stages. Everyday citizen preparation could be affected by social media manipulation (political manipulation tacti…
By getting enough testing kits ready so you are not in a situation where hundreds/thousands of possible infections have occurred in Washington state while you've only diagnosed ~100 people.
Only thing interesting about this virus is 1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests, and 2) We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic
Coverage of that was already dwindling as the months went by and there was no major action by the PRC. In addition, the more extreme protestor actions, like destroying the subway and other infrastructure, made it harder to write about.
I think once some of the protesters became violent, such as setting a bystander on fire, and killing that janitor by throwing a brick at him, coverage decreased significantly.
One thing interesting about the coverage of the Hong Kong protests is it overshadowed the protests in other regions, like Kashmir, Iraq, Venezuela, Indonesia, France, and a bunch of other places.
I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
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Afaik the primary method of transmission is believed to be saliva droplets in the air, expelled via talking, sneezing, or coughing. I think even a badly fitting mask would cut this drastically? Washing hands, avoiding touching your face, and other measures like these mainly help with what seems to be a far less common vector of transmission via surfaces and physical contact, where the virus only remains active for a…
You have it backwards. Droplets on surfaces are the primary transmission mechanism. The virus can survive on surfaces for hours. People then touch surfaces with their hands then touch their faces. Droplets in the air are a transmission mechanism but only for short range (3-6 feet) and only a danger from people who cough or sneeze on you. Respirators are effective at stopping that transmission but they are most useful…
For example, a quick google of "how does coronavirus spread" brings up this article as the top result: https://www.livescience.com/how-coronavirus-spreads.html
It says:
"The new coronavirus spreads mostly through person-to-person contact within about a 6-foot (1.8 meters) radius, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). People with COVID-19, which is the disease caused by the coronavirus, spread viral particles through coughing and sneezing. The particles can land in the mouths or noses of those nearby.
It might also be possible to catch SARS-CoV-2 by touching a surface where the virus has recently landed and then touching one's mouth, nose or eyes, but CDC officials believe this method of transmission is less common."
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When I see a log plot bending up, my default assumption is stunning growth for a considerable period. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...
Or it could be an indication that in some countries, the current weather enables exponential growth. This could rapidly change as it did in China.
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From another comment, in Italy the numbers are worse than previously reported rather than better. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22476675 I did not check their source. Just saying that "we may be close to saying `false alarm`" seems almost certainly ill-informed.
How can you be "almost certain" of the future based on numbers from 1 article you didn't even read?
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It would be great if you could share your reasoning and information as to why you think this is just a bad flu. I have been seeing information from China that says the death rate is 20-30 times higher than the flu and that the hospitalization rate could be up to 20%. Other than China, most countries haven't been infected long enough to do studies on the final fatality or hospitalization rate.
Mortality rate in China is overestimated because they tested primarily the most severe cases. From [1]: "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case…
I do hope that the death and hospitalization rate ends up being lower and am awaiting studies based on places like the towns in the Italian red zone where they tested every resident and the Diamond Princess. If the rates end up anywhere near the initial estimates, the hospital capacity situation could become very serious unless we enact quarantines.
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In Italy at the moment the data is far worse. We have a total of 2263 currently infected people of which 1000 with few symptoms, 1034 hospitalized and another 229 under emergency treatments [0] If the number of infected keeps growing (+400 today) and the percentage of hospitalized remains the same, hospitals will have serious problems very soon [0] https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2020/03/03/coronavi...
The virus is certainly quite concerning, but those numbers are misleading. Italy almost certainly has far more than 2263 infected cases of covid-19. 2263 is just the number of individuals that sought medical attention, were given the test, and tested positive. The big unknown is how many of those that are infected do not even seek medical attention (or were not administered the test). For instance, children appear to…
My understanding was until recently Italy was testing people that were asymptomatic but since that got them in trouble by making their situation look worse than other countries they have brought their behavior in line with these other countries.
I am interested in seeing how much more effective China's current system will be at addressing the outbreak vs highly developed western democracies. If there's one thing a technologically advanced dictatorship like the CCP should excel at, it's this.
In another two weeks they might have less cases than other regions!