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My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

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Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#41

Post by sg47 »

airstrike wrote: post #16
katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

Trump did not call COVID-19 a hoax. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-re...

If he doesn't want people misinterpreting his statements and spreading fake news, he should stop spreading fake news himself first.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#42

Post by bob33212 »

crystaldev wrote: post #27

Coronavirus has been circulating for months now. Many of us have already beaten it. That's why spread is linear and not gripping the world like it should be at this point: The "spread" is a measurement of panic and vigilant diagnosis. This is most carefully observed cold of all time. I was stocking up on dry goods and such like everybody else. After the past few days I feel like a panicked fool. Almost every single d…

If the death rate was 10% across the board we would know how far it has spread. But this cold may have a 0.001% hospitalization or death rate for people in great health. There could already be 100,000 people infected in the states.

We may be close to the point of saying "fuck it. False alarm this is just a cold. Carry on". Hard to know for sure though until a couple weeks go by

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#43

Post by filoleg »

snapetom wrote: post #24
katmannthree wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the article you linked? He inferred that the media coverage is fearmongering and an attempt to hurt him. He specifically used the word hoax. He didn't call the virus a hoax, he called the coverage and criticism of the US's handling and response to the outbreak a hoax. From the page you linked: "During a Feb. 28, 2020, campaign rally in South Carolina, President Donald Trump likened the Democrats' critici…

> He didn't call the virus a hoax, he called the coverage and criticism of the US's handling and response to the outbreak a hoax. How does this differ from the person you responded to who said, "Trump did not call COVID-19 a hoax"?

Yeah, agreed, the parent phrasing definitely confused me. First 3 sentences make it seem like he is trying to head-on rebut the comment he is replying to, and then the last sentences of the 1st paragraph just reiterate and expand on what the grandparent comment said and agree with it. While what the parent said makes sense, reading it definitely threw me off a bit.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#44

Post by downerending »

tomerico wrote: post #31

Looking at countries with wide community spread[1] the spread is very clearly tied to cold weather (Europe, Korea, and Iran). This pattern is similar to other air transmitted viruses such as the Flu. Warmer countries seem to be resilient despite some having higher density and lower hygiene standards (e.g. India). Given that the default assumption should be the COVID-19 will follow the flu pattern of diminishing rapid…

When I see a log plot bending up, my default assumption is stunning growth for a considerable period.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/...

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#45

Post by gdubs »

yodsanklai wrote: post #26

It's very hard to have an informed opinion on the virus. Different actors have different incentives. Medias try to sell ads, politicians want to be elected (or not held responsible), institutions like WHO are political (I don't really trust them after seeing their treatment of Taiwan) and have their own agendd, even experts have their own biases and are selected by medias. And we are all deeply biased, and tend to lo…

Just to be clear people, don’t just go to the doctor if you think you might have coronavirus — call first and seek their professional recommendation. They may want to come to you to do a swab, rather than have people randomly walking in and possibly infecting others.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#47

Post by btilly »

airstrike wrote: post #16
katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

Trump did not call COVID-19 a hoax. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-re...

He did not.

However his rhetorical style is to put emotionally laden words in close conjunction and then repeat them over and over again. People therefore walk away with an emotional message that does not necessarily logically follow from any facts that they were given.

At an emotional level, he is associating COVID-19, Democrats and hoax. With the message that everything that Democrats say is a hoax, including what they say about COVID-19.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#48

Post by terenceng2010 »

danenania wrote: post #34
katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

I really don't get the seeming dismissal of masks as a tool to contain spread. I understand that there's a shortage and healthcare workers are the priority (as they should be), but it seems to me that in theory the absolute fastest way to contain this would be to get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two. I keep seeing statements to the effect of "a mask only helps if you're already sick", but we do…

Even a non-surgical or home-made mask is better than no mask at all.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#49

Post by n4r9 »

lbj wrote: post #46

Only thing interesting about this virus is 1) It fully stopped all the PR coverage of the Hong Kong protests, and 2) We learned how poorly we are prepared for a pandemic

Agreed. However, was with some Hongkongers a week ago and it seems very likely that the protests will start straight back up once the virus has died down.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#50

Post by Angostura »

danenania wrote: post #34
katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

I really don't get the seeming dismissal of masks as a tool to contain spread. I understand that there's a shortage and healthcare workers are the priority (as they should be), but it seems to me that in theory the absolute fastest way to contain this would be to get everyone on the planet wearing masks for a month or two. I keep seeing statements to the effect of "a mask only helps if you're already sick", but we do…

The great thing about badly fitting masks is people wearing them tend to touch their face a lot more.
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