My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio • Hacker News Board

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#11

Post by QuantumGood » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:05 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

Argument by "they said" should really only be used when it is the same "they" speaking now and then. Otherwise, especially when no reference is given, the "they" can be no one, a general sense the writer remembers, a low-quality they (talking points for manipulation purposes), etc.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#12

Post by pengaru » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:06 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #3

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? I am busy, right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense. (But I am not really that pessimistic. Somebody mentioned that the Spanish flu was a big impulse for providing national health care services. I think it can have…

> right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense.

Perhaps it was in reference to the famous Aldous Huxley quote:

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.”

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#13

Post by Apocryphon » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

QuantumGood wrote: post #11

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

Argument by "they said" should really only be used when it is the same "they" speaking now and then. Otherwise, especially when no reference is given, the "they" can be no one, a general sense the writer remembers, a low-quality they (talking points for manipulation purposes), etc.

Funnily enough, I asked about this two years ago:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16315334

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#14

Post by katmannthree » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0].

China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical attention, ~5% are critical, and ~2% are fatal).

People prefer to believe that media coverage of the effects in China are fearmongering or even a political "hoax"[1], that it will peter out with warmer weather (it's spread quite quickly in Singapore which is hot and humid at the moment), and that because it's possible to misuse masks and because they don't provide complete protection by themselves they're useless and should be left for healthcare workers[2].

The kind of critical thinking that helps you prepare for things like this seems to be in short supply. Last week people thought I was silly for stocking up on dried goods and essentials, this week every store around me is sold out of hand sanitizer, clorox wipes, and isopropanol.

[0]: Wikipedia, right now

[1]: The US president, at a rally a couple of days ago

[2]: The US surgeon general's twitter page, a couple of days ago

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#15

Post by jcadam » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:09 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #10

pengaru wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Making such a comparison is non-trivial; does any highly developed western democracy share China's population size and density? I'm more curious about how this will affect India, where the population situation is more similar to China's. I haven't seen any mention of the virus there in the news, yet.

Supposedly the climate may impede the virus’ ability to spread. https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2020/02/26/will-housto...

Part of the reason I had been hoping this virus wouldn't hit Florida (where I live) until summertime. It's miserably hot and humid down here from about June to September.

Also, school would be out.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#16

Post by airstrike » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:10 PM UTC

katmannthree wrote: post #14

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

Trump did not call COVID-19 a hoax.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-re...

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#17

Post by bcrosby95 » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:11 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #3

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? I am busy, right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense. (But I am not really that pessimistic. Somebody mentioned that the Spanish flu was a big impulse for providing national health care services. I think it can have…

They have learned: privatize gains, socialize losses. The government is so fearful of meaningful corrections they will do whatever is necessary to make the people at the top whole instead of letting them suffer catastrophic losses. So party on.

There are ways to go about this and wipe out investors without causing complete economic collapse (e.g. nationalization and orderly dismantling) but "we've" already decided not to go that route.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#18

Post by airstrike » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:12 PM UTC

js8 wrote: post #3

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020? I am busy, right now I am trying to learn that humans will never learn from history. I vaguely remember somebody mentioning that to me in the past, but I dismissed it as a nonsense. (But I am not really that pessimistic. Somebody mentioned that the Spanish flu was a big impulse for providing national health care services. I think it can have…

I think the analogous effect this time is to revisit the healthcare supply chain

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#19

Post by justinzollars » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

Apocryphon wrote: post #2

> this is one of those once in 100 years catastrophic events that annihilates those who provide insurance against it and those who don’t take insurance to protect themselves against it because they treat it as the exposed bet that they can take because it virtually never happens. They said 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, too. So what’s the next black swan that will unsettle the market in 2032? The Big One finall…

> So it sounds like we didn’t learn much from 2008. Will we learn from 2020?

We learned a lot from 2008.

This is a different ball game. There is plenty of credit today. This is a supply shock. There are not applicable lessons from a credit crunch to a panic/virus induced supply shortage.

Re: My Thoughts About the Coronavirus: Ray Dalio

#20

Post by katmannthree » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:14 PM UTC

airstrike wrote: post #16

katmannthree wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is a terrific example of normalcy bias, a "tendency for people to believe that things will always function the way they normally have functioned and therefore to underestimate both the likelihood of a disaster and its possible effects"[0]. China has provided roughly a month's advance warning on how this virus plays out in terms of infectivity and severity (~20% of cases are serious / require medical atte…

Trump did not call COVID-19 a hoax. https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-coronavirus-rally-re...

Did you read the article you linked? He inferred that the media coverage is fearmongering and an attempt to hurt him. He specifically used the word hoax. He didn't call the virus a hoax, he called the coverage and criticism of the US's handling and response to the outbreak a hoax.

From the page you linked: "During a Feb. 28, 2020, campaign rally in South Carolina, President Donald Trump likened the Democrats' criticism of his administration's response to the new coronavirus outbreak to their efforts to impeach him, saying "this is their new hoax." During the speech he also seemed to downplay the severity of the outbreak, comparing it to the common flu."

A transcript of his exact words at the rally: "Now the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus. You know that, right? Coronavirus. They’re politicizing it. We did one of the great jobs. You say, ‘How’s President Trump doing?’ They go, ‘Oh, not good, not good.’ They have no clue. They don’t have any clue. They can’t even count their votes in Iowa, they can’t even count. No they can’t. They can’t count their votes.

One of my people came up to me and said, ‘Mr. President, they tried to beat you on Russia, Russia, Russia. That didn’t work out too well. They couldn’t do it. They tried the impeachment hoax. That was on a perfect conversation. They tried anything, they tried it over and over, they’ve been doing it since you got in. It’s all turning, they lost, it’s all turning. Think of it. Think of it. And this is their new hoax."