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PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

pycon.blogspot.com

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Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#11

Post by masonic »

veganjay wrote: post #3
barbegal wrote: post #2

The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…

Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

doubling about every four days or so, 6 + 31 days would be about 800 cases.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#12

Post by xapata »

masonic wrote: post #11
veganjay wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

doubling about every four days or so, 6 + 31 days would be about 800 cases.

If we have about 100 cases today, and that doubles every 4 days, we'd have about 60k cases in 37 days.

    (6 + 31) / 4 = 9.25
    2 ^ 9.25 = 608
    608 * 100 ~= 60k

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#14

Post by zenlot »

> Currently, there have not been any COVID-19 cases in Pennsylvania

No boundaries to stupidity. Such arguments makes no sense at all, better check how many people have been tested in PA. While everyone cancelling large scale events there are few mohicans going forward seeing no risk.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#15

Post by Grue3 »

veganjay wrote: post #3
barbegal wrote: post #2

The doubling period of Covid-19 is between 1.8 and 4.1 days where large scale quarantine measures aren't being taken [1][2]. The conference is in 43 days so without large scale quarantines and stopping large events then the number of cases in the US could grow to as many as 800,000 assuming a doubling period of 3 days. It seems therefore fairly obvious that most large events in April will have to be cancelled. [1] ht…

Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

Your March 2 numbers include Diamond Princess cases (45?) which have not been in contact with the rest of the population.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#16

Post by Enginerrrd »

Grue3 wrote: post #15
veganjay wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

Your March 2 numbers include Diamond Princess cases (45?) which have not been in contact with the rest of the population.

No there are other estimates of a few hundred cases in the bay area that are sensible. Or at least they were a week ago. To get two in-the-wild cases serious enough for hospitalization and testing (overriding the CDC testing criteria at the time) you'd expect there to be at least around 100-200 cases at the time of hospitalization.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#17

Post by Enginerrrd »

lhl wrote: post #8
Leary wrote: post #5

Maybe buy a few temperature guns and point them at people's foreheads before they enter?

Due to the long incubation period, infected people can be infectious even while not presenting symptoms or relatively asymptomatic. Bai, Yan, Lingsheng Yao, Tao Wei, Fei Tian, Dong-Yan Jin, Lijuan Chen, and Meiyun Wang. “Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19.” JAMA, February 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.2565 . Guan, Wei-jie, Zheng-yi Ni, Yu Hu, Wen-hua Liang, Chun-quan Ou, Jian-xing He…

While that's certainly true, viral load is important and this likely still would be an effective risk reduction measure.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#18

Post by masonic »

xapata wrote: post #12
masonic wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

doubling about every four days or so, 6 + 31 days would be about 800 cases.

If we have about 100 cases today, and that doubles every 4 days, we'd have about 60k cases in 37 days. (6 + 31) / 4 = 9.25 2 ^ 9.25 = 608 608 * 100 ~= 60k

When I wrote "6 + 31 days" I meant "6 (initial) cases, 31 days later". I thought that was clear in context.

Re: PyCon 2020 Update on Covid-19

#19

Post by xapata »

masonic wrote: post #18
xapata wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we have about 100 cases today, and that doubles every 4 days, we'd have about 60k cases in 37 days. (6 + 31) / 4 = 9.25 2 ^ 9.25 = 608 608 * 100 ~= 60k

When I wrote "6 + 31 days" I meant "6 (initial) cases , 31 days later". I thought that was clear in context.

Ah, yes `6 * 2 ^ (31 / 4)` is much larger than 100. Good point.
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