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Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

cdc.gov

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Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#51

Post by Kliment »

EthanHeilman wrote: post #20
ransom1538 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town - the hospitals will fill with persons experiencing a bad flu - that %20. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases...

Is it still the case that you have a two week latency before symptoms? If so, that would make detecting the early stages of an outbreak without testing exceptionally hard.

Here is some data from 1100 early cases in China. Median incubation period is 4 days, interquartile is 2-7 days. 14 days is a very distant outlier, and it's possible there was an intermediate carrier or two in those cases.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#52

Post by jcadam »

lm28469 wrote: post #35
jcadam wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risk assessment says not to set foot in a medical facility right now unless I'm actively dying, thank you very much.

Then stay at home. If you're sick, refusing to get tested and continue to live like everything is fine you're actively and willingly spreading a deadly virus.

Be calm, I'm all better.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#53

Post by onebot »

danmaz74 wrote: post #34

For those who want constant updates about the international situation, this is the best source I found so far: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ By the way , I'm wondering how much the high cost of the test in the US is responsible for a number which looks (to me at least) suspiciously low.

I am glued to this. Seems to update in realtime.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#54

Post by HelloMcFly »

6d6b73 wrote: post #27

I find it interesting to compare what's CDC is doing right now ( messed up tests, not enough testing, protecting markets but not people) to what we can see CDC doing in movies like Contagion where they are on top of everything before anyone else even knows that the there is a new virus in the wild.

I can tell you with absolute certainty that the CDC often does know about outbreaks and events before it's generally known to the public. Usually these instances are only of interest to the local communities they are operating in. This is of a different magnitude, and while they haven't slept on the job there's been both external factors and misjudgments in the response that have left them playing catch-up.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#55

Post by lotsofpulp »

6d6b73 wrote: post #27

I find it interesting to compare what's CDC is doing right now ( messed up tests, not enough testing, protecting markets but not people) to what we can see CDC doing in movies like Contagion where they are on top of everything before anyone else even knows that the there is a new virus in the wild.

I don’t find it interesting. One is a movie, the other is real life. It’s very difficult to collect accurate data, suss out errors, publish it, revise it, etc. I think the CDC and other agencies do as good a job as can be expected given the current tools and political climate.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#56

Post by aazaa »

> An important part of CDC’s role during a public health emergency is to develop a test for the pathogen and equip state and local public health labs with testing capacity.

Testing for COVID-19 has been an unmitigated failure in the US.

Whatever advantage may have accrued from closing travel routes has been fritted away by preventing local authorities from testing. Without testing, there's no way to say anything about the safety of the American people.

CDC needs to explain the American public how this was allowed to happen, especially since other governments seem to have had no problems despite being called into action much sooner.

Without a clear explanation, the public will have no confidence in what the CDC says as the disease spreads.

The self-congratulation on the presidential podium during the last two pressers has been disgusting and disgraceful. There's nothing to celebrate or congratulate here. The entire group dropped the ball.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#57

Post by axaxs »

jcadam wrote: post #37
axaxs wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tampa? That one has me perplexed as, if I read right, those two didn't even travel. That would indicate an unknown carrier, meaning our own guesses of number of cases is probably way off.

Eh, one had traveled to Italy recently, the other is UNK. I've been surprised Florida didn't come up sooner, given all of the tourism here (and winter is tourist season).

Thanks for the correction, I see that now. I had the same thought, especially for Orlando. Here's hoping we handle it well. An outbreak here would likely be far deadlier than most other states, if not all.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#58

Post by hurricanetc »

nickjj wrote: post #33

If anyone is curious, it's now officially in NYC. Someone came off a plane from Iran. She was officially tested but since she wasn't dying the hospital sent her home for self-quarantine. Feel free to Google it to read it on whatever site you prefer, but here's a snippet from the Weather channel's site (I saw it when checking the weather today): > A woman in her late 30s contracted the virus while traveling in Iran, G…

First tested and confirmed case in NYC. There have been numerous reports from NYC residents who returned from areas with community spread, got sick, tested negative for the flu, and the CDC wouldn’t test them.

I think in a few weeks we’ll find out that Coronavirus has actually been spreading in NYC for 3+ weeks.

The CDC is incompetent.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#59

Post by edejong »

matwood wrote: post #36
ransom1538 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy. %20 of the cases require some type of hospitalization. %80 are mild and don't require medical attention. If you have Covid-19 rampant in your town - the hospitals will fill with persons experiencing a bad flu - that %20. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-80-percent-cases...

Yeah, this is more serious than the flu, but not as serious as MERS or SARS. Like the seasonal flu, the main worry is older people and/or people who are already respiratory compromised. I don't want to catch this much like I don't want to catch the flu, but my main worry is for my parents and grandparents.

This is way more serious than the flu in multiple ways. First of all, estimates show that the case fatality ratio (CFR) is around 2%, which is 20x higher than the flu. This number is likely to rise when ICUs are becoming over-constrained and cannot take new patients. This is already happening in the north of Italy as we speak.

Second, the transmissibility of the SARS-nCov-2019 (the virus causing COVID-19) is much higher than the seasonal flu. This means the period within which a demand will be made on healthcare services will be much shorter and much more intense.

Third, there are reports showing lasting damage to kidney and lung tissue (sponge-like structures). Even when surviving COVID-19, previously healthy people might become chronically ill.

Fourth, in order to prevent at least part of what I am describing, very stringent measures are required. These already have a historic impact on our worldwide economy and will hit developed countries the most (since they require a worldwide infrastructure). It is very likely that the impact will become unprecedented as various continents are considering and implementing large-scale quarantine measures.

Concluding, comparing COVID-19 with the regular flu is both simplistic and dangerous. Prepare yourself and your loved ones for a bumpy ride.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#60

Post by [deleted] »

aazaa wrote: post #56

> An important part of CDC’s role during a public health emergency is to develop a test for the pathogen and equip state and local public health labs with testing capacity. Testing for COVID-19 has been an unmitigated failure in the US. Whatever advantage may have accrued from closing travel routes has been fritted away by preventing local authorities from testing. Without testing, there's no way to say anything abou…

[deleted]
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