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Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

cdc.gov

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Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#2
Situation reports for the whole world from the World Health Organization (WHO) are posted here every day: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...

This link was posted 34 days ago on Hacker News, but was then [flagged], but I am not sure why (?): https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22168119

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#4
post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

This will be based on models using what we currently know about the time it takes patients to show symptoms, the number of people currently detected showing symptoms, and the expected rate of detection of symptomatic patients.

'Numerous' is a bit of a loaded term, there have been cases of community spread in three areas so far, as described in the CDC summary.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#5
post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

They are using a high threshold of "widely", ignoring the math of exponential growth and what that says about the next several weeks.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#7
post #4
post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

This will be based on models using what we currently know about the time it takes patients to show symptoms, the number of people currently detected showing symptoms, and the expected rate of detection of symptomatic patients. 'Numerous' is a bit of a loaded term, there have been cases of community spread in three areas so far, as described in the CDC summary.

> The coronavirus has been circulating undetected and has possibly infected scores of people over the past six weeks in Washington state, according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-s...

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#8
post #4
post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

This will be based on models using what we currently know about the time it takes patients to show symptoms, the number of people currently detected showing symptoms, and the expected rate of detection of symptomatic patients. 'Numerous' is a bit of a loaded term, there have been cases of community spread in three areas so far, as described in the CDC summary.

“Widely” is sort of a vague word.

It might be only in a few states but Florida, California, Washington, and New York could have a lot.

It is suspected that in Washington the virus has been spreading undetected for 6 weeks.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will be based on models using what we currently know about the time it takes patients to show symptoms, the number of people currently detected showing symptoms, and the expected rate of detection of symptomatic patients. 'Numerous' is a bit of a loaded term, there have been cases of community spread in three areas so far, as described in the CDC summary.

> The coronavirus has been circulating undetected and has possibly infected scores of people over the past six weeks in Washington state, according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-may-have-s...

Yes, correct, scores of people in the areas the CDC report there being cases, and in which they say people are at increased risk. That's not 'widely in the united States'.

They also say that widespread transmission is eventually likely to occur. They are simply, and as far as I can tell very clearly and responsibly, drawing a distinction between what is happening now and what is likely to occur in the future.

Re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 Situation Summary

#10
post #3

>This virus is NOT currently spreading widely in the United States. Curious how this is known given practically zero tests have been done and numerous cases with no contact external to the US have been discovered.

Oh really: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970271318503426

"This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks."

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