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Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

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Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#61

Post by pbourke »

PeterisP wrote: post #57
entwife wrote: post #20

I'm traveling in Seattle, where as of this morning the health department has confirmed 6 cases of coronavirus of which only one was a recent traveler to China.[0] I would appreciate the ability to cancel a reservation if I feel sick, especially at a reservation with a shared bathroom. [0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

If you're from Seattle, then the recent research of Trevor Bedford (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center) and the Seattle Flu Study group might be relevant - they've posted a quick summary on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233971278735761409 while there's still the weekend; but in essence they've done genetic analysis of the Covid-19 strains in Washington sate, and it suggests the following worrying things: 1. t…

Upvoting and boosting:

There is strong evidence that the Seattle area is where Italy was a week ago.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#62

Post by selim_tiotoys »

PeterisP wrote: post #57
entwife wrote: post #20

I'm traveling in Seattle, where as of this morning the health department has confirmed 6 cases of coronavirus of which only one was a recent traveler to China.[0] I would appreciate the ability to cancel a reservation if I feel sick, especially at a reservation with a shared bathroom. [0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

If you're from Seattle, then the recent research of Trevor Bedford (Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center) and the Seattle Flu Study group might be relevant - they've posted a quick summary on https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233971278735761409 while there's still the weekend; but in essence they've done genetic analysis of the Covid-19 strains in Washington sate, and it suggests the following worrying things: 1. t…

Why add the word "worrying" to your statement - just leave it neutral. No need to make people panic. It only leads to irrational behavior.

For context - what might have happened in WA could actually be a positive spin on the story. It would mean that the virus has been spreading for much longer than anticipated and the number of infected people might be 100x or 1000x the reported number. It's "positive" as it pushes the denominator up quite significantly, which would mean that the fatality rate is much closer to a "normal" Influenza than anything else.

If their profiling turns out to be correct - we're in a "much better situation" than we thought.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#63

Post by edanm »

geofft wrote: post #12
evilnames wrote: post #5

Airbnb, and others, cancellation policies will be a major reason for the spread of this virus. The sunk cost fallacy is alive and well here, people don't want to lose money just because they feel sick even though they know they shouldn't go when not feeling well. I think at this time the travel industry needs to stand up and relax it's policies even further. Airbnb will not refund you a stay unless your flight has be…

OK, but in a society where we've been taught that the thing that makes money is the right thing to do, simply telling people won't change their decision-making. Should we spend public health funds on cancellations? Should we also fund people with non-salaried jobs to stay home? I haven't worked through the numbers but it wouldn't surprise me if these were among the highest-efficiency ways to spend government emergenc…

I'm guessing spending them on tracking the people infected, tracing down other people who might've been infected, helping enact quarantines, etc, is a far better use of funds than helping people cancel reservations on the off chance they are infected.

> OK, but in a society where we've been taught that the thing that makes money is the right thing to do,

Also, huh? I think more people in this society think that "money is the root of all evil" than what you're suggesting.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#64

Post by PeterisP »

jtdev wrote: post #55

Shocking to see that sunk cost fallacy and groupthink are driving decision making rather than sound science and medicine. Here’s a rather ironic example: HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees from 90+ countries is still scheduled to go forward at Orange County Convention Center March 9-13 - even as major participants withdraw from the event. I was actually blocked by HIMSS PR folks on Twitter for inquiring abo…

A major physics conference (APS March meeting 2-6 Mar in Denver) has been cancelled with very short (36 hours?) notice - https://twitter.com/APSphysics/status/1233950396093214720 , https://march.aps.org/

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#65

Post by PeterisP »

Retric wrote: post #18
jpxw wrote: post #4

If you’re in a major city, this is the time to start taking preventative measures. Avoid mass gatherings and public transport if you can.

There are 70 known cases of Coronavirus in the US. Making precautions at this point is reasonable, going to extremes is not. My suggestion is to prepare for the possibility of major disruption starting 2 to 6 months from now. Avoid non refundable trips etc.

NY Times now reports estimates of up to 1500 undetected cases in Washington state alone (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.ht...). Though that is a a rough order-of-magnitude guesstimate based on virus analysis in Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash; however, it's reasonable to say that while there are some 70 confirmed individuals, we have evidence to say that there are much more cases in USA than that, we just haven't found them, and haven't isolated them, so they'll continue spreading the disease.

My suggestion would be to prepare for the possibility of a major disruption in 2 to 6 weeks, not 2 to 6 months, given what we've seen of how fast the number of cases have grown in other countries.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#66

Post by newhere2020 »

jtdev wrote: post #55

Shocking to see that sunk cost fallacy and groupthink are driving decision making rather than sound science and medicine. Here’s a rather ironic example: HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees from 90+ countries is still scheduled to go forward at Orange County Convention Center March 9-13 - even as major participants withdraw from the event. I was actually blocked by HIMSS PR folks on Twitter for inquiring abo…

Can you please share which major participants have withdrawn from the event? Where might I be able to look that up? Thanks.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#67

Post by gdubs »

poutine wrote: post #29
entwife wrote: post #20

I'm traveling in Seattle, where as of this morning the health department has confirmed 6 cases of coronavirus of which only one was a recent traveler to China.[0] I would appreciate the ability to cancel a reservation if I feel sick, especially at a reservation with a shared bathroom. [0] https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

FYI Washington state has declared a state of emergency. Fears are that it's gone communal with hundreds or thousands of estimated infections in the community. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-us-reports-fir... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/world/coronavirus-news.ht...

Let’s not post about fears. The situation in Washington in serious. However, a state of emergency was also declared in Santa Clara County weeks ago -they’re necessary for unlocking funding so local governments can prepare.

Let’s try to keep discussion to facts, not fears.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#68

Post by jtdev »

newhere2020 wrote: post #66
jtdev wrote: post #55

Shocking to see that sunk cost fallacy and groupthink are driving decision making rather than sound science and medicine. Here’s a rather ironic example: HIMSS 2020, a conference of ~45000 attendees from 90+ countries is still scheduled to go forward at Orange County Convention Center March 9-13 - even as major participants withdraw from the event. I was actually blocked by HIMSS PR folks on Twitter for inquiring abo…

Can you please share which major participants have withdrawn from the event? Where might I be able to look that up? Thanks.

Cisco, Intel, Salesforce, and Amazon - reports of more to announce tomorrow.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#69

Post by gdubs »

Retric wrote: post #18
jpxw wrote: post #4

If you’re in a major city, this is the time to start taking preventative measures. Avoid mass gatherings and public transport if you can.

There are 70 known cases of Coronavirus in the US. Making precautions at this point is reasonable, going to extremes is not. My suggestion is to prepare for the possibility of major disruption starting 2 to 6 months from now. Avoid non refundable trips etc.

I feel like now is the time to take preventative measures like canceling large gatherings, crowd avoidance, etc. They’ll have more of an effect now than in two weeks.

I also don’t think this is a panicked view point.

To me, if we wait until it’s obvious we need to take steps, we’ll have wasted a lot of firepower, so to speak.

Re: Coronavirus information and extenuating circumstances policy

#70

Post by graeme »

sjg007 wrote: post #47
graeme wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The link says you can only automatically cancel for mainland china and korean trips. So any trips to Italy, Iran, Washington State etc can’t be refunded. It encourages people to still go. Sunk cost fallacy: people might not take a free trip to italy now, but they may go if they previously paid for one.

I would be surprised if Airbnb does business in Iran...

Actually you’re right, they don’t do Iran.
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