Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

stamfordadvocate.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

61–70 of 127 posts

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#61

Post by dr_dshiv »

praptak wrote: post #41

Humans are bad at gauging low probabilities. I for one cannot wrap my head around the actual badness of an event that has 2 percent chance of getting me killed. Taking the "average" approach, i.e. 2% loss of my expected remaining life time doesn't seem very good. # Yup, I know getting the virus is more than just a chance to die - you possibly infect others, get quarantined, etc.

Please keep in mind that the 2% rate does not apply to you. Check your own risk here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#62

Post by spartas »

dr_dshiv wrote: post #39

Why do we still call it "The Coronavirus", despite the fact that the common cold is caused by coronaviruses and rhinoviruses [1]? Like, with the H1N1 flu we had a more specific name. Isn't it morally important to provide the public with nuance? i.e., "there is a bad version of the common cold this year, so watch out, especially if you are over 60". [1] Falsey, A. R., Walsh, E. E., & Hayden, F. G. (2002). Rhinovirus a…

SARS-CoV-2 is that "more specific name". I agree that it didn't help that it went without a specific name for a long period of time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndr...

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#63

Post by JohnStrangeII »

ianai wrote: post #31

This is a pretty dismissive thread and P.O.V. The point is the combination of all characteristics of it is bad. No one has a resistance to it because it’s novel. It looks to have an infection rate of 2 for 1 infected. It will likely reach huge numbers of people and kill orders of magnitude more than the usual flu. If it gets to a billion people we’re talking tens of millions dead.

To add to this, what some people apparently don't realize is that those who get mild symptoms and ignore them or don't get tested and quarantined will almost certainly infect others who might die from it. It could be your elderly neighbor, your parents, grandparents, or an acquaintance with a compromised immune system.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#64

Post by nostromo »

TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #23
40four wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this mans perspective is important. For the vast majority of people who get this it isn’t much different then having a cold or the flu. The large majority of people this is killing are elderly, whose immune systems are less likely to successfully defend. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... But that is not the picture painted by media day in and day out. There is so much hype and se…

It's got a 2% fatality rate. It's going to overload medical facilities in many major cities, is already leading to medicine shortages for meds from China, and will close jobs and schools around the nation. It's not smallpox or anything, but it is major.

2% seems to be the max rate, and it's coming down as we identify more people that have the virus, but are not even sick enough to go to the hospital.

I loved my grandparents, so I'm not downplaying this -- but the mortality rate for healthy people under 60 is much lower.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#65

Post by dr_dshiv »

obmelvin wrote: post #38
tyfon wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think after the success of the media in respect to this virus (massive amounts of clicks and TV view time), I firmly believe that every new flu will have it's own name and similar coverage from now on. They just made too much money off this, fear is a big seller.

This is about 20x deadlier (rate, not absolute numbers) than the seasonal flu as of midweek (numbers may have changed a bit in last few days). It is a more apt comparison to compare to the 1918/19 Spanish flu than the seasonal flu. edit: yes, I know the age breakdowns of deaths. But young people can still transmit the virus to their elderly loved ones etc. I don't understand why people are dismissive about the fact t…

Spanish flu killed people aged 20-40. This doesn't.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#66

Post by rndgermandude »

raphaelj wrote: post #15
tyfon wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think after the success of the media in respect to this virus (massive amounts of clicks and TV view time), I firmly believe that every new flu will have it's own name and similar coverage from now on. They just made too much money off this, fear is a big seller.

Except that this is significantly more dangerous than the seasonal flu. 6 people already died on the Diamond Princess out of about 600 detected positive cases, this is one to two orders of magnitude more than the seasonal flu.

It is more dangerous, but you shouldn't extrapolate too much from the Diamond Princess case either.

A vacation and also the associated travel is a special event that also affects the immune system, a cruise ship is a special and foreign "habitat" to passengers and crew and usually a lot more cramped than they experience in their every day lives, the demographics of people taking a cruise will differ from the demographics of most "normal" area as well. Cruise ships are a bit notorious for outbreaks of all sorts, from E.Coli and noro to legionella and even measles, and corvid-19 too.

And on top of that a study[1] found that the total quarantine the Japanese government imposed didn't help either, but actually worsened the situation, to 700+ infected while the study estimates that if people were let off the ship (but still monitored and treated of course) then only about 76 would likely have been infected. This decision was likely fueled at least in part by over-the-top news coverage and the political pressures this created.

[1] https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm...

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#67

Post by obmelvin »

40four wrote: post #47
obmelvin wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is about 20x deadlier (rate, not absolute numbers) than the seasonal flu as of midweek (numbers may have changed a bit in last few days). It is a more apt comparison to compare to the 1918/19 Spanish flu than the seasonal flu. edit: yes, I know the age breakdowns of deaths. But young people can still transmit the virus to their elderly loved ones etc. I don't understand why people are dismissive about the fact t…

That is a terrible talking point. It paints a picture that is not inline with reality. It’s the only ‘evidence’ anyone can grasp to as to why this is any more concerning than the common flu. Meanwhile the numbers are HIGHLY skewed by age group. It is almost exclusively killing elderly people. For anyone less than 50-60 years old, the numbers are in line with flu. And the old people will be better protected once the v…

Yes, but honestly why does that matter when talking about the implications of it spreading? Are you saying that old people's lives are worth less? It doesn't diminish the general threat just because you or I are less likely to die. You or I may not be too affected, but what if I unknowingly transmitted (as is happening) to my grandparents when I got dinner with them?

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#69

Post by emj »

mrspeaker wrote: post #20
cm2012 wrote: post #5

That's why it's so dangerous. For 80% of people it's a mild cold. - so they go to work like normal.

This is a time where it would be preferable to live somewhere that has good free/cheap health and social systems: if you're sick, you stay home and there are limited social or financial repercussions. So many people where I am will just "soldier on" because they have no choice.

I'm living in such a place and if you have a cold it is normal to go to work even if you are sick, it's really hard to make people stay at home just because they feel a bit ill. Remote work has to be come more accepted.

Re: I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn't that bad

#70

Post by ianai »

JohnStrangeII wrote: post #63
ianai wrote: post #31

This is a pretty dismissive thread and P.O.V. The point is the combination of all characteristics of it is bad. No one has a resistance to it because it’s novel. It looks to have an infection rate of 2 for 1 infected. It will likely reach huge numbers of people and kill orders of magnitude more than the usual flu. If it gets to a billion people we’re talking tens of millions dead.

To add to this, what some people apparently don't realize is that those who get mild symptoms and ignore them or don't get tested and quarantined will almost certainly infect others who might die from it. It could be your elderly neighbor, your parents, grandparents, or an acquaintance with a compromised immune system.

Yep and there are far too many people who will gladly come to work very sick. I’ve suffered far too many examples in corporate America.
Post reply on HN