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How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

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Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#141

Post by 7952 »

albroland wrote: post #89
sadfev wrote: post #44

Here comes the fear mongering. We are far better equipped to handle epidemics and pandemics now than 100 years ago.

It's not even a matter of being equipped to handle it imo; all signs also point to COVID19 not being as serious as initially thought and far more mild than expected. Administrating the test for it is both expensive, and time consuming, so the gross number of known infections is likely to be substantially underreported because of selection bias (why run expensive RNA analysis on a blood sample if the person is having…

What makes it different is that it is new. This could have made it avoidable in comparison to other diseases that are common. Surely it is worth trying to eradicate diseases before they get established? If we could irradicate flu we would.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#142

Post by newhere2020 »

pimeys wrote: post #81
arkades wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Almost everyone dying so far has had another medical issue or been very old I agree with not fomenting panic. However, "had another medical issue" means diabetes, which alone covers 11% of the US population, and has so far been associated with a mortality rate of about 8%. This likely includes at least one family member in more or less every US family. It's entirely reasonable to view that as a compelling reason to…

Would be interesting to know how the level of your treatment to diabetes affects your chances to die. I'm type 1, A1c under 6% and I do constant exercise. Is it worse with bad control, I haven't found an answer yet.

My understanding is that high blood sugar impedes the immune system. So, the better your blood sugar is controlled, the better off you will be.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#143

Post by bredren »

gradschool wrote: post #102

A BBC documentary called "The Flu That Killed 50 Million" is informative. As of time 130 million were infected and 200 thousand dead, Sir Arthur Newsholme, senior medical officer at Whitehall, sent a message to his European counterparts proposing a cease fire because an existential threat to humanity transcends national rivalries. (Just kidding!) He actually decided against even warning the public to take any precaut…

Handy link to the 2018 50 million film: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0blmn5l

Doesn't work for outside UK IPs. It is on TPB, though.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#144

Post by albroland »

7952 wrote: post #141
albroland wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not even a matter of being equipped to handle it imo; all signs also point to COVID19 not being as serious as initially thought and far more mild than expected. Administrating the test for it is both expensive, and time consuming, so the gross number of known infections is likely to be substantially underreported because of selection bias (why run expensive RNA analysis on a blood sample if the person is having…

What makes it different is that it is new . This could have made it avoidable in comparison to other diseases that are common. Surely it is worth trying to eradicate diseases before they get established? If we could irradicate flu we would.

I'm not sure what I've said that would contradict anything you've suggested. I agree with your question, obviously we should do everything reasonable to contain and curtail a lethal disease. The best way to do that is to address it in a sober, realistic manner and drive intervention and response on evidence - not the conjecture of journalists who demonstrate little to no understanding of the situation and disseminate unfounded paranoia.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#145

Post by dewy »

01100011 wrote: post #140
kelnos wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would expect greater morbidity and mortality among health care workers, though, so I don't think that's a data point that proves or disproves anything.

Why? I'd figure they would get exposed more quickly, but the outcome would be, on average, the same as anyone else. Perhaps the stress of working during a health crisis exacerbates the disease, or perhaps they have a more active immune system from constant exposure to new pathogens?

The expert on NYT's The Daily podcast suggested that the load of the infection you are exposed to can influence the severity of the disease, in which case a health worker working with inflicted patients would presumably be at greater risk. However, I have neither the expertise in immunology or the time to look up sources to verify whether his statement is true. (They also suggested that he could just have been unlucky...)

One fascinating thing they mentioned is that a large number of people in China smoke, especially among the elder generation that is experiencing the highest mortality rate. On the podcast, they mentioned that this is essentially a comorbidity, because your lungs are already partially shot by the time you get Covid-19 (and then viral pneumonia).

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#146

Post by vikramkr »

sadfev wrote: post #61
vikramkr wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of that is rapid transfer of information though - I could argue that the ability to rapidly spread fear of the disease to get people to worry and change their behaviors helps make us better at dealing with pandemics than when the news and the government would push propoganda saying there's nothing to worry about. I don't know if I would argue that or complete believe that argument since I agree with you that a l…

Agreed it’s not cut & dry. We should put everything in context. As crude as it sounds there haven’t been that many deaths. Yes this seems to have outbreaks in waves but that’s about the only scary part. We should be alert but not anxious!

The point of my response was that fear mongering and rapid information spread might be a reason that we haven't seen that many deaths. The whole point is to minimize how many more deaths there are, and it's the potential for disruption and death that matters right now, not the existing number of deaths except as indicators of what the extent of the risk might be

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#147

Post by boring_twenties »

duxup wrote: post #62
macintux wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can they at this point? It seems like their authority has been emasculated.

I'm pretty sure the CDC can "say" what they want.

You'd hope so, but then we have this: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronaviru...

tl;dr- "directing them to coordinate all statements and public appearances with the office of Vice President Mike Pence"

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#148

Post by poulsbohemian »

MrGilbert wrote: post #117
js2 wrote: post #36

While doing ancestry research years ago, I learned I had a 2nd great uncle who immigrated to America from Romania aboard the RMS Carpathia in 1904. (Eight years later in 1912, this would be the first ship to come to the Titanic’s rescue, and six years after that would itself be sunk by a U-Boat.) He had left Romania likely to escape anti-semitism. He’d eventually find his way out to Denver. Sadly, he’d die in 1918 (t…

I'm impressed how far back you've managed to come in your history. An uncle of mine did something similiar some 20 years ago. He managed to get to the point by the end of 1890 where we realized that our grand-grandfather was a Kuckuckskind [1] - and part of our family immigrated to the US. [1]: A "Kuckuckskind" (German for "cuckoo's child") is a child who's social father is not their biological father. However, this…

I'm kinda fascinated at how you came to this understanding - would seem like if the child didn't know and it otherwise remained a secret, that it would be very difficult to determine in the historical record.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#149

Post by 7952 »

albroland wrote: post #144
7952 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes it different is that it is new . This could have made it avoidable in comparison to other diseases that are common. Surely it is worth trying to eradicate diseases before they get established? If we could irradicate flu we would.

I'm not sure what I've said that would contradict anything you've suggested. I agree with your question, obviously we should do everything reasonable to contain and curtail a lethal disease. The best way to do that is to address it in a sober, realistic manner and drive intervention and response on evidence - not the conjecture of journalists who demonstrate little to no understanding of the situation and disseminate…

I think your comment is doing the opposite. It is using conjecture and false comparisons to downplay the seriousness. And using those false comparisons as a heuristic for justifying a continuation of common practice. You may well be right. But you are not providing any evidence to justify that.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#150

Post by pimeys »

newhere2020 wrote: post #142
pimeys wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would be interesting to know how the level of your treatment to diabetes affects your chances to die. I'm type 1, A1c under 6% and I do constant exercise. Is it worse with bad control, I haven't found an answer yet.

My understanding is that high blood sugar impedes the immune system. So, the better your blood sugar is controlled, the better off you will be.

That's what I understood also. I've spent tremendous amount of time understanding my diabetes, and your comment here validated my assumption in the case of CoV.

It's still quite scary to see how diabetics have a very high risk with the virus. Luckily the treatment I get with my closed loop gives me an easy access to excellent control.

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