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How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

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Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#131

Post by xenonite »

nostromo wrote: post #84
js2 wrote: post #36

While doing ancestry research years ago, I learned I had a 2nd great uncle who immigrated to America from Romania aboard the RMS Carpathia in 1904. (Eight years later in 1912, this would be the first ship to come to the Titanic’s rescue, and six years after that would itself be sunk by a U-Boat.) He had left Romania likely to escape anti-semitism. He’d eventually find his way out to Denver. Sadly, he’d die in 1918 (t…

It's worth noting that the 1918 flu was unique in that it killed many young, healthy people. Corona virus is more typical in that it's primarily killing the very old or otherwise ill. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

On the contrary. The age-grouped death rates in your link do not consider the comorbidities.

Indeed, the problem with the coronavirus is that a better immune system can yield an overly intense immune reaction. If this happens, it yields a blockage of the lung capillaries. Hence, it becomes impossible to breathe. This extreme state lasts for about 2 days. This period might be only survived by utilizing a special type of breathing machine.

This over-reaction of the immune system does, however, happen to a lesser amount if the immune system is in a poor condition.

Hence, the coronavirus might, again, yield a survival of the weakest (like in 1918).

Source: an interview with the German virologist Prof. Dr. Dr. Alexander Kekulé, here: https://www.zdf.de/uri/a4719bf9-a2c5-4c66-ad92-105cd8dcfcba (in German)

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#132

Post by dharma1 »

jtdev wrote: post #29
jtdev wrote: post #7

“ Philadelphia had scheduled a big Liberty Loan parade for September 28. Doctors urged Krusen to cancel it, fearful that hundreds of thousands jamming the route, crushing against each other for a better view, would spread disease. They convinced reporters to write stories about the danger. But editors refused to run them, and refused to print letters from doctors. The largest parade in Philadelphia’s history proceede…

To add a little context: I’m currently scheduled to attend a ~50000 attendee international conference in the U.S. My employer has sponsored - and I’m not in a position to refuse to attend (yet). The host org is standing firm on pushing forward as scheduled, but has released a bunch of PR B.S. communications about hand sanitizer, face masks, etc. being provided and quarantine of symptomatic individuals at the event (n…

You could call in sick?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#133

Post by jsnell »

Seenso wrote: post #126
bcrosby95 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were two waves to the Spanish Flu. Wave 1 started like the standard flu - it was mild, hitting mostly the old and ill, and not terribly deadly. Wave 2 is when it mutated, spread like wildfire, and killed 2% of the world population. From what I can tell they aren't completely sure what happened here. One theory I read is that WW1 reversed the trend of what happens with flu: if you had mild symptoms, you stayed o…

>> It's worth noting that the 1918 flu was unique in that it killed many young, healthy people. > There were two waves to the Spanish Flu. Wave 1 started like the standard flu - it was mild, hitting mostly the old and ill, and not terribly deadly. Wave 2 is when it mutated, spread like wildfire, and killed 2% of the world population. That's sounds similar to the 1977 swine flu. It mainly infected people in their 20s…

Thanks, that's a fascinating story I'd not heard about before.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#134

Post by dharma1 »

howmayiannoyyou wrote: post #22

I fear we are going to regret not taking draconian measures right now. Mandatory social distancing right now likely could buy additional time for the healthcare system to advance preparations for a wide scale outbreak, including stockpiling additional PPE and advancing triage procedures. It provides valuable time for drug & medical device manufacturers to ramp up production of needed supplies and drugs that should be…

I agree. Nothing will slow this down except isolation. Even if it's too early, better too early than too late.

What's worse - everyone taking a month off to work from home and watch Netflix with their closest ones, or do nothing and risk high numbers of casualties and rapid spread?

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#135

Post by kelnos »

ternaryoperator wrote: post #113
nostromo wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's worth noting that the 1918 flu was unique in that it killed many young, healthy people. Corona virus is more typical in that it's primarily killing the very old or otherwise ill. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

Nonetheless, the 34-year old doctor who first sounded the alarm about Covid 19 died from it--barely a month after contracting it. It's hard to know whether the elderly and the ill are simply the first wave of casualties or not. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/whistleblower-...

I would expect greater morbidity and mortality among health care workers, though, so I don't think that's a data point that proves or disproves anything.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#136

Post by technotony »

gradschool wrote: post #102

A BBC documentary called "The Flu That Killed 50 Million" is informative. As of time 130 million were infected and 200 thousand dead, Sir Arthur Newsholme, senior medical officer at Whitehall, sent a message to his European counterparts proposing a cease fire because an existential threat to humanity transcends national rivalries. (Just kidding!) He actually decided against even warning the public to take any precaut…

To be fair, those in authority were doing a pretty good job decimating the male working age population before flu came along. They could probably model the daily death rate from flu in it's early days to be less than that on the Western front... especially if they weren't very good at modelling exponential growth.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#137

Post by albroland »

svachalek wrote: post #120
albroland wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you cite some of the worldwide public health community that disagrees with the assertions? All the alarmism I've seen is coming from a media, typically with wildly outdated or incorrect statistics. WHO's clickbait ten tips for conoravirus include statements such as "Most people will have mild disease and get better without needing any special care." [1] If you read the stuff they've been publishing, you'll get qu…

So, a 20% chance of a severe case (which means hospitalization as far as I know) is no big deal? Also am I reading that correctly that they are including pneumonia in the "mild or moderate" category?

"Severe case" is clinically defined in the source material on page 12 if you're interested. I'm not sure o2 sat or respiratory rate is particularly meaningful to readers on here so I didn't include it.

I'm not sure where you're getting "no big deal" from, I never said or implied anything of the sort. It appears to be comparable to influenza, which is serious and warrants a serious response, but not cause for any panic. Flu already poses a serious risk to the elderly, yet we don't see widespread panic year over year.

Mild pneumonia is also known as atypical/walking pneumonia. In the source material they state that they classify mild pneumonia as a moderate infection. See figure 5. Most cases of atypical pneumonia don't require hospitalization, as the primary characteristics are just cold symptoms that don't go away in a week.

We're going to start seeing more data coming out of South Korea in the coming weeks that is likely to be far more reliable than what the CCP would show. Currently the fatality rate appears to be ~0.5% and trending downward. [1]

[1] https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=00...

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#138

Post by cheshire137 »

gradschool wrote: post #102

A BBC documentary called "The Flu That Killed 50 Million" is informative. As of time 130 million were infected and 200 thousand dead, Sir Arthur Newsholme, senior medical officer at Whitehall, sent a message to his European counterparts proposing a cease fire because an existential threat to humanity transcends national rivalries. (Just kidding!) He actually decided against even warning the public to take any precaut…

There's an episode of American Experience from PBS that's about the 1918 flu epidemic that's also good.

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#139

Post by staticautomatic »

jtdev wrote: post #128
staticautomatic wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quarantine? A non-governmental person/entity doesn't have legal power to detain anyone in the U.S., including for the purpose of quarantining them. See https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantin... The only way you could legally be physically detained in quarantine at a conference would be by a sworn offer (e.g. a police officer) acting on a government order.

HIMSS is using the word "isolated" [1]. HHS defines "isolation" and "quarantine" as the following [2]: "Isolation is used to separate ill persons who have a communicable disease from those who are healthy. Isolation restricts the movement of ill persons to help stop the spread of certain diseases. For example, hospitals use isolation for patients with infectious tuberculosis. Quarantine is used to separate and restri…

My point is simply that without a directive from the government, it would be illegal for the conference organizers to physically detain you, even if it's to isolate or quarantine you. Even if they did have a directive, it would probably still have to be a sworn officer doing the detaining (there may be case law on this to the contrary). Hospitals obviously have such a directive, but I'm not sure that even a hospital security guard who isn't a sworn officer would have the power to detain you under the hospital's directive. In any event, it's not at all clear to me that HIMSS has a directive from a government agency, let alone that the detaining would be done by sworn officers and not some hired help with "guard cards".

Re: How the 1918 Flu Spread Across America (2017)

#140

Post by 01100011 »

kelnos wrote: post #135
ternaryoperator wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nonetheless, the 34-year old doctor who first sounded the alarm about Covid 19 died from it--barely a month after contracting it. It's hard to know whether the elderly and the ill are simply the first wave of casualties or not. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/06/whistleblower-...

I would expect greater morbidity and mortality among health care workers, though, so I don't think that's a data point that proves or disproves anything.

Why?

I'd figure they would get exposed more quickly, but the outcome would be, on average, the same as anyone else. Perhaps the stress of working during a health crisis exacerbates the disease, or perhaps they have a more active immune system from constant exposure to new pathogens?

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