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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#401

Post by admax88q »

marcosdumay wrote: post #323
admax88q wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

doesn't that mean that we can only compute an upper bound on the mortality rate? We will never know for certain how many cases there are, but _of the cases we know about_ we can compute a reasonable upper bound on mortality. Were more likely not to learn of cases than were not fatal than we are of cases which are fatal as severe cases are more likely to seek treatment.

With the measurement people are using, yes, you can only know an upper bound. It's possible to discover an actual estimate, but it takes time and resources. Researchers may care about doing that after the crisis passes, but it's very unlikely anybody will care about this right now.

Which is fine, people keep pointing to all these unknown as "we can't possibly compute the morality rate!" Which leaves the door open for assuming its way higher than estimated, when in reality current estimates are likely an upper bound.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#402

Post by tathougies »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

It's because modern life is exceptionally easy. Anyway, it's good for the markets anyway.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#403

Post by divbzero »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

On another page [1] Worldometer correctly explains the better estimate of mortality deaths / (recoveries + deaths) for ongoing outbreaks. Not sure why they got it wrong here.

[1]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... "Coronavirus Mortality Rate"

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#404

Post by marcosdumay »

admax88q wrote: post #401
marcosdumay wrote: post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With the measurement people are using, yes, you can only know an upper bound. It's possible to discover an actual estimate, but it takes time and resources. Researchers may care about doing that after the crisis passes, but it's very unlikely anybody will care about this right now.

Which is fine, people keep pointing to all these unknown as "we can't possibly compute the morality rate!" Which leaves the door open for assuming its way higher than estimated, when in reality current estimates are likely an upper bound.

Although I think the official estimates are severely overestimating the lethality (by an order of magnitude), I also think there isn't enough information for establishing an upper bound yet.

Current estimates are bad.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#405

Post by lurquer »

chimprich wrote: post #334
lurquer wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global drama everywhere, and this is not something that I would expect from Hackernews. Being somewhat of a cynic, it doesn't surprise me to see it here. HackerNews posters apparently love thinking about global catastophes and societal discontinuities. Read the breathless posts warning of dire consequences arising from the tariffs on in China 24 months or so ago. T…

Conversely, there's a group of people who like to show off how sensible and level-headed they are by being able to rise above the concerns of other people. They do this by handwaving away problems rather than engaging with the evidence. The threat of nuclear war was (and is) real. The mass reduction of insects is well-documented. The threat of rising CO2 levels is one of the most-studied phenomena in science. > "You…

>Conversely, there's a group of people who like to show off how sensible and level-headed they are by being able to rise above the concerns of other people.

Quite right. Let us at HackerNews strive to be part of that group. ;)

There are plenty of other sites for the chicken-littles.

In any case, I don't expect to persuade you...

But a couple months from now, when Covid-19 is but a memory and we're off with the next impending catastrophe (Caribbean volcano? Tremors along the San Andres? Killer Bees? Whatever it may be...) perhaps you'll be so kind as to revisit this thread and give me an upvote. Likewise, if a couple months from now I'n in a crowded hospital, feverish, and on a ventilator, before I pass, I will request the nurse log me on to HackerNews so I can return here and do the same for you.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#406

Post by vkou »

partiallypro wrote: post #397
vkou wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If making a stupid PSA video is the criteria for incompetence, I'm not sure I've ever interacted with a single competent organization that was large enough to film one. I don't care about their filmographic teams. I care about whether or not the control measures are working.

I said that was one of -many- examples. Try reading around. China even went so far as to blame the outbreak on the US. Sounds a lot like the Soviet era. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/15/coronavirus-xi-jinping-... Outside of just lying about case numbers... "But by Feb. 5, the funeral parlors and crematoriums were reported to be having problems keeping up with the disposal of the dead in Wuhan. Though no data was…

Mind you, the US currently has a President that blames the milk going sour on Mexicans, thermometers showing higher temperatures on China, and the colour of his hair on LED light bulbs. Half the country does not believe that this makes him incompetent...

> Sounds like they've been everything but competent.

If you think that our cities are any more prepared for an epidemic of this magnitude... I don't know what to say.

I will point out, however, that the US has fewer ICU beds across the entire country (Most of which are currently occupied), than there are documented COVID-19 cases in one city in China.

If an outbreak occurs here, do you really think that we will have enough medical resources to provide quality care for everyone? If yes - what are you, and your legislators doing, to put us in that situation? Because with our current medical infrastructure, we are not in that situation.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#407

Post by hcknwscommenter »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #396
hcknwscommenter wrote: post #370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That paper correlating temperature with transmission is comically bad. As stated above, the likelihood warmer temperatures by themselves will have any affect on COVID-19 transmission or deaths is close to zero.

I've been seeing comments all over that the temperature will reduce transmission, and even heard it cited in the news today. I'm very skeptic about this since citing SARS research is useless here. fwiw trying to find evidence of this claim in studies relating to covid19 (peer reviewed or not) has so far yielded no results.

"citing SARS research is useless here"

Huh? SARS is the closest studied virus there is to COVID-19. It is certainly not useless. Of course there are no/few results for COVID-19, it didn't exist until a few months ago and even then was relatively unknown until about a end of January.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#408

Post by hcknwscommenter »

hcknwscommenter wrote: post #367
scarmig wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My reasoning for thinking this is worthy of panic: I recently moved to China. The PRC has good numbers (internally) and knows more about COVID-19's severity and risk profile than anyone else. And, on the ground, the PRC is putting the entire country on what amounts to wartime footing (in a way that's unimaginable to most HN readers), to the point that it's willing to sacrifice a quarter or more worth of economic prod…

"letting warmer temperatures do their work" The likelihood that warmer temperatures per se will have any affect on COVID-19 transmission, morbidity, or mortality is close to zero.

I guess this comment has garnered some negative reactions from people. I have yet to read/hear/come across a plausible explanation regarding how the warmer temperature will actually curtail transmission or improve health outcomes. Is there an actual theory here or are people just paraphrasing our genius President's semi-coherent remarks regarding same.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#409

Post by benibela »

hiram112 wrote: post #267
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

> If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. I read a similar comment from someone on another forum. If you're certain this will end up a pandemic, with almost everyone eventually catching it, your best move is to catch the virus as soon as possible, ensuring…

There are reports that you can get it a second time, and it is worse on the second time:

https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/02/15/hubei-doctors-...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#410

Post by dntbnmpls »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

> We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on.

I think everyone notices it now because they all say the same thing and in the same manner. It's always, the numbers can't be trusted ( China/WHO/CDC/EU/UN/US/etc ) followed by an "anecdote" and/or their own made up numbers and without fail an intentionally misleading and false mortality/fatality rate. Every covid and even non-covid thread has the exact same fearmongering. Whatever the case, it's definitely intentional and feels a tad bit organized.

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