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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#281

Post by generalpass »

wtvanhest wrote: post #249
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

5 people have died that were on the princess cruise out of 705 infected. At just over 1/2 a percent, it is more deadly than the flu, but not 2% and certainly not 7.8% The princess cruise gives us a crucial piece of information which is a fully tested population. 2 things to consider: 1) population is like older due to being a princess cruise which would increase death rate. 2) not everyone is cleared yet, so more dea…

And how healthy are their immune systems? I imagine they are eating a lot of sugary foods, drinking more than usual and staying up later in a time zone they are not acclimated for.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#282

Post by ulfw »

ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254
mns wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

And you forgot the last thing: Europeans would never put the money in.

The Coronavirus isn't new. Since mid-January we knew this will be serious. Nothing has been done since to prepare.

Maybe Europeans can't build a field hospital in ten days, but we haven't even tried to start building anything in 40 days.

We wait until it hits our shores, as is now the case and then throw our hands up in the air.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#283

Post by yread »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #10
dannyw wrote: post #2

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

They might be 'massaging' the numbers, or maybe they aren't, but considering the importance of the issue for China and the world, and how many eyes are watching, their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation. At this point they cannot afford to claim that everything is fine if it isn't. I'm more worried about Iran than China.

The most cooked are the numbers for rest of the world obviously. Look how well they stick to the exponential here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NCoV20200209_Hubei_Chin...

/s

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#284

Post by sampo »

hiram112 wrote: post #267
ajsnigrutin wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is in the healthcare capacities. I live in a country with ~2mio people. If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. If 200k people get infected (10% of population), and only 10% of those need extra medical care, that's 20.000 people. We don't have…

> If you're patient zero here, you get a comfy private room, your own bed, 5 doctors, 10 nurses, whole research teams, respirators, priority with all the tests, examinations, etc. Same for patient 1, 2, 3. I read a similar comment from someone on another forum. If you're certain this will end up a pandemic, with almost everyone eventually catching it, your best move is to catch the virus as soon as possible, ensuring…

How fast or slow does the virus evolve towards lower mortality? If you get infected months later, is it still essentially the same virus, or a less aggressive strain?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#285

Post by nostrademons »

companyhen wrote: post #243
eecc wrote: post #35

People, if you haven’t yet go get the seasonal flu vaccine. Reduces burden on strained ops and your risk of getting double tapped

Are you saying the flu vaccine can help prevent covid-19? Just trying to clarify. I'm traveling to Asia in 3 weeks from US and haven't gotten the flu shot the past year. I got it in 2017 and got sick, 2018 and got sick, but last year I decided not to and didn't get sick at all. Maybe just a coincidence though.

No, but you really don't want to get both the flu and coronavirus at the same time. And on a community level - if you're not going into the ER because you have swine flu, that's one more bed/ventilator that can be used for a coronavirus patient.

It's also just a good idea. Spanish/Swine Flu (H1N1) is circulating again this year, and if we didn't have coronavirus occupying all the headlines people would be talking about the swine flu epidemic. (In fact, they were, back in November - there were a bunch of articles about how this year would be an unusually bad flu season.)

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#286

Post by eecc »

hutzlibu wrote: post #185
rootusrootus wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the vaccine temporarily lowers your immune system Medical science seems to disagree with you. Edit: And HN disagrees with me. Have we become Reddit? On second thought, don't answer that. Bro science has a long tradition on HN just like anywhere else.

Hm. And where? Because the known side effects can be: dizziness, fever, headache, fainting. I associate those with general low energy, meaning lower immune system. Now the last conclusion might be incorrect, true, I don't know if I drew this conclusion by myself or have this from a medical person. In either case, medical doctors here definitely advised against taking the vaccine now.

No, it’s the immune reaction to the inoculation. It means there actually was something to look at in the shot

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#287

Post by luckylion »

arcticfox wrote: post #216
cm2187 wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, there is a doomer mentality that applies to everything (climate change, geopolitical tensions, etc) and which the media are more than happy to fuel to sell paper and commercials.

While I agree with the overall sentiment, in the context of a novel pandemic, downplaying the risks is far worse than overplaying them IMO.

Overplaying increases the baseline of perceived risk, so you'll have to overplay it even more next time to provoke the same reaction. That's difficult, because once you're at "we're all going to die with 99.9% certainty", will people really care tomorrow when it's 99.99% or 99.999% the day after that?

It feels a bit like throwing antibiotics at everything. Sure, it's effective in the moment, but you're lowering the future effectiveness.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#288

Post by scarmig »

rebuilder wrote: post #239
scarmig wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My reasoning for thinking this is worthy of panic: I recently moved to China. The PRC has good numbers (internally) and knows more about COVID-19's severity and risk profile than anyone else. And, on the ground, the PRC is putting the entire country on what amounts to wartime footing (in a way that's unimaginable to most HN readers), to the point that it's willing to sacrifice a quarter or more worth of economic prod…

My read on the Chinese reaction is the same in that they seem to be taking it very seriously indeed. But it might not be because the PRC are so worried about the disease per se. They may just be worried about the unrest and panic an insufficient response could cause. I.e. the PRC may be trying to prevent the infodemic more than the epidemic, to use current parlance.

One interesting frame to view this through is as a stress test of Chinese state capacity. I.e. is the state able to rapidly deploy resources vastly and effectively, at the cost of very dear priorities, to achieve some key national security objective?

If I were a CPC member, I'd be pretty happy with how this has gone. It was able to turn an initial misstep into a triumph: the people I talk to tend to take the view that China got a pop quiz and scored a B+, while all the other countries around are getting the same exam take home and flunking it.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#289

Post by patall »

Tenoke wrote: post #69
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

>The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/infected) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. On the other hand, there are also a lot of infected who only have a mild version and are never checked and recorded, which swings it in the other direction. Edit: Seems like the parent post later edited their post to mention the above.

But that could be said about any disease. As is, it is mortality given that you have symptoms which is a pretty good measure to have. For everything else, you need some many more parameters, better tests etc. Even a test for antibodies in blood which would be the gold standard can fail. Also, we do not know how many people are naturally immune to the disease. May be 10 world wide, maybe 10%, who knows?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#290

Post by Zenbit_UX »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #10
dannyw wrote: post #2

How much can we trust the data coming out of China?

They might be 'massaging' the numbers, or maybe they aren't, but considering the importance of the issue for China and the world, and how many eyes are watching, their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation. At this point they cannot afford to claim that everything is fine if it isn't. I'm more worried about Iran than China.

> their interest is still to report factual trends and overall situation

Maybe, but it's important to never underestimate the value regimes like China put on image. Parallels can be drawn to how the USSR downplayed the Chernobyl incident and how many more lives were affected by their nationalistic pride.

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