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Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

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Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#151

Post by blattimwind »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I don't think a sensible mortality rate can be computed at this point, because we have no idea, not even good estimates, how many people contracted the pathogen. 10 dead out of 1000? Or 10000? Or 20000? In Wuhan they apparently checked ~almost everyone for symptoms - temperature - but showing symptoms != infected. So far it seems that there is an exceptionally large proportion of infected people showing no or barely any symptoms.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#152

Post by bilekas »

sciinfo wrote: post #28
bilekas wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm already conveniently WFH with a cold, which I hope is just a cold. I would be really interested in getting some take-home test packages that could be done for situations like these. It would be irresponsible to go to a doctors office where elderly people could become infected. Does anyone know if they exist ?!

I read that South Korea is developing them and it's close to ready. They probably need them for their own people first though. It's a huge opportunity for a startup/company to create a home test kit for COVID-19. Massive global market for the product and growing exponentially. Doing well & doing good at the same time.

> It's a huge opportunity for a startup/company to create a home test kit for COVID-19. Massive global market for the product and growing exponentially.

If someone has a list of materials thatwould be required to pull these affordable tests something could be put together for sure.

the worrying thing is to keep the costs down, one would think a lot of those materials and components would need to come from Chine to be cost effective.. The tangled web.

Edit: the problem wil step from China's supply chain being slowed down.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#153

Post by Spare_account »

dredmorbius wrote: post #47
billygoat wrote: post #42

I really would like to know if smoking is implicated. Are there any smoker/nonsmoker stats anywhere?

Yes, though that's mostly rolled up in the gender statistics. Men are far more likely smokers than women in China. Mentioned in TFA.

Is the F in 'TFA' what I think it is?

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#155

Post by oefrha »

AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #144
bart_spoon wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is the aspect of the disease that is so interesting to me. With many diseases, like the flu, the most at risk are the elderly and the very young. But barely 1% of infections in China are children younger than 10, and 0 deaths.

Can it be that smoking plays big part in this? As this also explains gender statistics.

An early preprint from the team of China’s leading expert Zhong Nanshan tagged smokers and non-smokers among the 1099 cases they analyzed. 85.4% supposedly never smoked, with 14.5% of those cases severe. So it’s not like non-smokers are very much immune.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#156

Post by tylermac1 »

bart_spoon wrote: post #133
citilife wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're pretty far off the mark here. >90% of people have healthcare coverage in the U.S.[1]. Those that don't are likely illegal or homeless or in some way don't qualify for medical coverage (I also don't know how prisoners are counted in the data). Many people I know visit the doctor way more often than they need to or should (I know those who receive it free to purchase it to use employer insurance - like m…

I have heard multiple times that one of the problems with American healthcare is that we are over treated. Part of the reason our healthcare costs are so much higher is because we tend to get large amounts of doctor visits, presciptions, and procedures compared to other nations. I wonder how this squares with the notion I keep seeing about how Americans will avoid the doctor as much as possible?

Anecdotally, I know way more people who avoid the doctor due to unknown treatment costs than go too often. My relatives that work in healthcare seem to agree.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#157

Post by CrazyStat »

nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

> On the flip side, it's very likely that mild cases will never be reported, which in turn would decrease the mortality rate.

Indeed. This calculation ignores severe underreporting of mild cases--for example, Johns Hopkins researchers (the same ones who made that map you linked to for data) estimated that only ~10% of cases in mainland China (mostly Wuhan at the time) were being reported [1]. That would put the mortality rate at under 1%, which is close to the evidence we have from elsewhere (e.g. the Diamond Princess).

dead / (recovered + dead) is only a reasonable estimate if you actually have good numbers for the recovered count. We don't, so it's irresponsible to use it.

[1] https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#158

Post by dpau »

mns wrote: post #141
nik_s wrote: post #57

The general issue with this measure of mortality (dead/(infected + dead)) is that you're assuming that the infected won't die. In a disease that is exponentially growing, a better approximation of evaluating your survival chances is to look at the death to recovery rate (dead / (recovered + dead)). Based on the available data [1], we are closer to 7.8% than 2% mortality, which is closer to the final mortality rate of…

I do have one question and I'm asking this seriously, not to start an argument or to attack someone. I also saw this here in a lot of the posts about covid-19. We have numbers, but every time people tend to ignore them or say we should not trust the numbers, take them with a grain of salt, "I think this is way worse, it's going to get way worse" and so on. It's like there is this thirst for disaster or some global dr…

ever since the beginning of this crisis, countries have been either hiding or underreporting the numbers. lack of adequate testing means that clusters are discovered late, after the virus has had a chance to spread. it's not so much a thirst for disaster as it is a thirst for knowledge so that we can better prepare ourselves. even in the US, the CDC seems at odds with the president as to the severity of the virus and its spread. if anything, it's governments that are "aligning the numbers" so as to avoid mass panic, downturns in markets, etc.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#159

Post by emiliobumachar »

citilife wrote: post #100
schaefer wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to many other countries, the United States has unpredictably overpriced medical costs that specifically burden the patient. my concern is that it's trained many people (especial those living paycheck to paycheck) to simply not seek medical services unless their condition demands the emergency room. I feel this economic reality will create conditions advantagous to the spread of Covid 19 in the United States.

I think you're pretty far off the mark here. >90% of people have healthcare coverage in the U.S.[1]. Those that don't are likely illegal or homeless or in some way don't qualify for medical coverage (I also don't know how prisoners are counted in the data). Many people I know visit the doctor way more often than they need to or should (I know those who receive it free to purchase it to use employer insurance - like m…

I hope you're right, but 10% or 5% of 300 million people are quite enough to get an epidemic around.

Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths

#160

Post by AndrewThrowaway »

oefrha wrote: post #155
AndrewThrowaway wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can it be that smoking plays big part in this? As this also explains gender statistics.

An early preprint from the team of China’s leading expert Zhong Nanshan tagged smokers and non-smokers among the 1099 cases they analyzed. 85.4% supposedly never smoked, with 14.5% of those cases severe. So it’s not like non-smokers are very much immune. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v...

I would say that it really dismisses smoking as a big factor then.
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