How much can we trust the data coming out of China?
Not a direct answer to your question but related: https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-...
TL;DR: The beginning was not great, but it seems better now.
Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
21–30 of 438 posts
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#22It's symptoms are pneumonia-like and it mainly kills the elderly. Is this is a new strain of pneumonia? If so, this seems like an overreaction? Edit: Not sure what the downvotes are about. I asked a question. So you can't fight it with drugs, it's highly contagious, hard to initially detect, its long-term effects are unknown, most have recovered and it's largely fatal to the elderly or those with existing conditions.
The mortality rate may seem very low, but the symptoms are far more severe. When you get the flu it's rare you get pneumonia, not so much with this virus. The biggest problem is that it spreads without symptoms. That is, you can be infected & contagious for days (some Dr's suspect up to 3 weeks) and not have a clue because you seem perfectly healthy. So this has the potential to spread like wild fire. Further, 2 days…
> Lastly, SARs supposedly left some people with lung and brain lesions, it is unknown what the long term effects of this one will be.
This is in itself just unnerving too. A few weeks ago I was overlooking this too, but the more and more that comes out, the more concerning it becomes.
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#23How much can we trust the data coming out of China?
How much can we trust the data coming from the American CDC? Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism?
Oh let me see, perhaps it has something to do with China being a one-party state with a ripe history of human rights atrocities and pervasive censorship.
Just look at SARS for an example of where trusting the official information from China made for a terrible idea.
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#24It's symptoms are pneumonia-like and it mainly kills the elderly. Is this is a new strain of pneumonia? If so, this seems like an overreaction? Edit: Not sure what the downvotes are about. I asked a question. So you can't fight it with drugs, it's highly contagious, hard to initially detect, its long-term effects are unknown, most have recovered and it's largely fatal to the elderly or those with existing conditions.
Outcomes are worse. While we had a pandemic of flu last year (really!) the death rate among those hospitalized with pneumonia was something like 10%. This one is 14% among some groups, and not just those sick enough to be hospitalized. Those stats are for the elderly (who also matter). Its a similar multiplier for other age groups.
stats: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.ht...
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#25This is the email I sent my team last night. We should consider working from home. You may all have seen the news by now. A patient was just diagnosed with COVID-19 at UC Davis after having no known contact with anyone travelling. Importantly, they were diagnosed after being intubated already for 7 days. It is suspected that this is the first known case of public transmission of the virus in the US. From what we know…
> I'm already conveniently WFH with a cold, which I hope is just a cold. I would be really interested in getting some take-home test packages that could be done for situations like these. It would be irresponsible to go to a doctors office where elderly people could become infected. Does anyone know if they exist ?!
The government currently doesn't even have enough test kits for hospitals. We're very very far from getting take home kits.
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#26How much can we trust the data coming out of China?
How much can we trust the data coming from the American CDC? Why exactly would you distrust China, besides racism?
Maybe because the virus was downplayed from the beginning and the doctors who discovered it, were punished and told to be quiet instead of getting support?
Now sure, the chinese government changed their tactic, but it would take a while for me, to trust them on anything.
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#27Does anyone have a system for keeping on top of the latest studies and preprints? I get study links second-hand on social media sites, but I'd like to watch them closer.
I find this subreddit more scientific based than even many epidemiologists I follow:
https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#28This is the email I sent my team last night. We should consider working from home. You may all have seen the news by now. A patient was just diagnosed with COVID-19 at UC Davis after having no known contact with anyone travelling. Importantly, they were diagnosed after being intubated already for 7 days. It is suspected that this is the first known case of public transmission of the virus in the US. From what we know…
> I'm already conveniently WFH with a cold, which I hope is just a cold. I would be really interested in getting some take-home test packages that could be done for situations like these. It would be irresponsible to go to a doctors office where elderly people could become infected. Does anyone know if they exist ?!
I read that South Korea is developing them and it's close to ready. They probably need them for their own people first though.
It's a huge opportunity for a startup/company to create a home test kit for COVID-19. Massive global market for the product and growing exponentially.
Doing well & doing good at the same time.
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#29Isn't the preexisting conditions table incredibly uninformative and heavily confounded by the fact that a lot of these conditions are far more prevalent in elderly people?
Re: Age, Sex, Existing Conditions of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths
#30This is the email I sent my team last night. We should consider working from home. You may all have seen the news by now. A patient was just diagnosed with COVID-19 at UC Davis after having no known contact with anyone travelling. Importantly, they were diagnosed after being intubated already for 7 days. It is suspected that this is the first known case of public transmission of the virus in the US. From what we know…
> I'm already conveniently WFH with a cold, which I hope is just a cold. I would be really interested in getting some take-home test packages that could be done for situations like these. It would be irresponsible to go to a doctors office where elderly people could become infected. Does anyone know if they exist ?!
They are far from existing. Right now the only workable test for the virus is a genetic fingerprint via PCR. This takes time and needs both a lab and some very specific reagents which the CDC is presently having trouble producing.
If you develop severe symptoms, wear a mask (either sterilize it or use disposables), call the hospital and talk with them about it. If they tell you to come in, they will take the necessary precautions to make sure you don't infect anyone else.