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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#781

Post by celticninja »

Cookingboy wrote: post #742
celticninja wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In part likely due to the fact that China misled everyone so significantly in the beginning other countries could not plan appropriately

Ok, which part did China mislead people? China told the world the virus can be transmitted asymptomatically, can be transmitted human to human, with a 14 days incubation period, and provided all the clinical data.

It misled people by hiding the extent of the problem, by harassing and prosecuting doctors who were raising awareness. Their first response was to suppress warnings.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#782

Post by infinity0 »

starfallg wrote: post #709
infinity0 wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries. There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did…

If the Wuhan authorities quarantined everybody that traced back to attending the mass dinners at the same early stage in the same way that the Italian and South Korean authorities are doing now, then the people infected in Hubei be at 60,000 or so now. The quarantine came in too little too late to control the situation in Wuhan, and only helped to contain the virus in other provinces of China, not fully contain it.

> the people infected in Hubei be at 60,000 or so now.

The people infected in Hubei are at about 60k or so now. Actually slightly lower. Were you trying to say something else??

60k is pretty impressive considering all the other apocalyptic "worse case" scenarios being published in various academic journals a few weeks ago based on "conservative models".

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#783

Post by infinity0 »

rustymonday wrote: post #703
infinity0 wrote: post #519

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries. There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did…

I don't know how you could conclude they did not fuck up when they imprisoned doctors who blew the whistle on the outbreak. That's not to say other countries will fare much better. But China had by far the best chance at containment, and they blew it. And the rest of the world has to deal with the fallout.

> I don't know how you could conclude they did not fuck up

I explained in my comment - the sudden increase in cases in Wuhan in January, was not that much worse that what we're seeing in S Korea, Iran and Italy right now. These latter countries are also less dense than Wuhan, and also had plenty of warning time. Nobody was imprisoned in Italy, yet despite that we still have several hundred cases today. This suggests that this single imprisonment didn't have a huge effect on the epidemic in Wuhan.

> by far the best chance at containment

What does it mean to have a "chance" at containment, and what makes one "chance" "better" than another "chance"??

> the rest of the world has to deal with the fallout

If you acknowledge there's a possibility that no "other countries will fare much better", why maintain such an accusatory tone? No government can control where an epidemic starts.

By your logic, if the epidemic had started in the US, the government would be at fault if it prevented the epidemic from spreading to any other countries? Is that what you're saying? That's an extremely high bar, probably unrealistic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#784

Post by celticninja »

Cookingboy wrote: post #742
celticninja wrote: post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In part likely due to the fact that China misled everyone so significantly in the beginning other countries could not plan appropriately

Ok, which part did China mislead people? China told the world the virus can be transmitted asymptomatically, can be transmitted human to human, with a 14 days incubation period, and provided all the clinical data.

Probably worth reading this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/26/the-re...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#785

Post by manquer »

mrfusion wrote: post #488
pbourke wrote: post #286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Come up with the vaccine 2. Test vaccine on animals 3. Prove to regulators vaccine is safe enough for limited human trials 4. Conduct limited human trials 5. Research effectiveness of vaccine / absence of side effects 6. Conduct broader human trials 7. Step 5 again 8. Scale up production of vaccine Now, imagine that you can fail at any step and go back to the starting point.

I know most people here like to defend the established ways of doing things. But in an crisis like this we need to go back to first principles and see which steps are really needed and what can be speed up. Every day we waste people die.

a rushed vaccine that has poorly understood side effects like say cancer rate differences or is fatal for people with some other disease is more dangerous than the disease itself. Many more people will end up taking the vaccine than just those having the infection.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#786

Post by kingosticks »

akg_67 wrote: post #778
kingosticks wrote: post #661

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't suppose you have an (English) link to that news story? Im getting concerned about my (tourist) trip next week if stuff I want to visit is closed.

Sorry I don’t have a link. Check /r/japantravel on Reddit. They have a Coronavirus megathread going and lot of other fellow travelers are posting information.

Brilliant, not a reddit user so didn't think to check there. And there is so much great stuff on there aside from the bad news about closures. Thanks!

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#787

Post by retsibsi »

hurrdurr2 wrote: post #761
retsibsi wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe I'm just looking for comfort, but this passage (from your first link) seems like a big logical leap to me: > The fact that patients not displaying symptoms are able to transmit the coronavirus indicates something alarming. As typically such respiratory viruses are normally transmitted thru the mouth via coughing in which minute droplets are exposed or thru the nose when the nasal fluids are released through sne…

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/...

Interesting article, but what point are you making by posting it without comment? It doesn't confirm airborne transmission, unless that is implied by background knowledge I'm missing (?). And it certainly doesn't tell me anything about the logic of the passage I quoted, so I remain sceptical about that other article's quality.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#788

Post by distantaidenn »

Izkata wrote: post #732
distantaidenn wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…

> and a few wearing them incorrectly How so? Like covering their mouth but not nose, or something? (I'm just wondering if it's something like that that should be obvious, or if there's something more subtle I'm unaware of)

Yes, having the mask covering only the mouth with nostrils exposed.

Also, as an fyi, if you are using some of the common paper masks, make sure the strings are on the outside.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#789

Post by bllguo »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #624
eirini1 wrote: post #545

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In China when the government tells its citizens to do something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for debate. People don't like to be told what to do. this is immensely racist btw

Probably. Is it accurate?

No it is not. Incredible that you even ask.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#790

Post by Mountain_Skies »

dependenttypes wrote: post #430
bzzzt wrote: post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe participation in the holy communion by drinking from a cup of wine shared with the entire congregation isn't the best idea right now.

I presume that the alcohol from the wine would not be enough to kill the virus, right?

Communion wine is typically only 12%-18% alcohol by volume, so probably not.
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