@dang can we please lock this thread, as it seems to be creating more FUD than there is already.
I think I haven't been so stressed out about reading anything on the internet in the last few years as much as this ask hn.
Edit: spelling
Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
221–230 of 566 posts
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).
Shortages of what? Supermarkets in northern Italy have been restocking without problems, there is a shortage of N95 face masks on amazon, but they're not even proved to be useful for healthy people
I grew up in a hurricane-prone state in the US. 95% of the time people stock up and panic and nothing happens. I'm talking about gas shortages and empty aisles in the grocery store. But the 5% where something does happen you wish you stocked up because you're not even able to leave the area because there is no gas. Not debating N95 masks effectiveness but I would rather be at least slightly repaired because things go south really fast when people get hungry.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#223I found this post useful "So you think you’re about to be in a pandemic?" : https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be...
Wow, only 0.9% of deaths occurred among those without comorbidities? That sounds very low, I'm surprised!
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#224This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred do…
I find this to be pretty alarmist. "If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit. The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1]. The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread). The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually i…
>The virus has an overall 98% survival rate
You say this as if 2% of people dying is somehow nothing. Think about everybody in your life that you care deeply about. Relatives, friends, mentors, etc. If this goes pandemic, at least one person in that category will likely die.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.
Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).
You are part of the panic stocking problem
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#226I always tend to have enough food at home that would last me two weeks easily. I would fill my bathtub in case things start to get more serious. That should be enough drinking water for some time.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.
You might be surprised. There are some old laws and powers that are going to be dusted off, and in some other cases it may be the case that governments just claim powers on an emergency basis and essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain.
"essentially nobody other than the absolute political fringes of society is going to complain"
I very much dont think that is the way this plays out in the western world.
In China, they welded the doors shut on entire residential buildings leaving the people in there to either die or survive on their own. They bagged and gagged people with elevated temperature and force quarantined them. They had crematoriums working over time.
China has complete military control of their population, this is going to go very differently in the West.
China's process was very effective and probably greatly reduced the rate of infection but there is no way people in other countries are just going to sit silently while the same actions are carried out.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
... because... ?
Because it has infected tens (probably hundreds) of thousands of people around the world, completely overwhelmed hospital systems, and there's very little reason to expect it will different where you are.
Fair enough.
Is it killing a significant amount of non-immunocompromised people? I haven't devoted a lot of attention to COVID-19, but would assume it doesn't have a high casualty rate among healthy people who practice the basics (rest and hydration)?
I guess one way to look at it is that it's a model for handling a much deadlier bug. And the world is doing a mediocre job at it.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
The spread seems to be plateu as well. Total numbers will probably be less than 100,000.
It plateaued in China following an incredibly massive quarantine effort. The infection is hitting countries with not nearly the social control measures that China has.
It also plateaued in China IF you happen to believe the numbers they are reporting are genuine, which I would wager they are not.
Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
No one is certain you can't get it twice.
If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.) This is the entire premise behind vaccinations. Regrettably, some viruses-- such as flu -- come in several different strains during a season; an immunity to one may not result in an immunity to another (but, an immunity to any strain of influenza seems to limit the severity of…
> If your immune system was able to beat it once, it is primed to quickly take it out the second time (probably before you even have symptoms.)
This isn't always the case, chickenpox can lie dormant for most of your life and reactivate as a far worse shingles. There are some sources claiming reinfection is possible and that it's worse than the initial infection for coronavirus, I'd take that with a large dose of salt for now, but it's not safe to assume you'll be immune once you beat it, even if it doesn't cause long term damage.