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Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

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Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#131

Post by james_s_tayler »

hangphyr wrote: post #12
AnimalMuppet wrote: post #5

Whether or not coronavirus turns into a stop-all-of-society-for-weeks event, China already stopped much of their society for a while. That means that things made in China are going to get scarce in a month or so. I therefore am paying attention to what things that I regularly use are made in China, and buying a few extra now, so that I can take a month or two disruption in the supply.

If you speak to anyone who works in supply chain, they're all experiencing massive disruptions. Traffic from Chinese ports has slowed significantly, these things take some time before they start affecting our store shelves. Some people will be quite surprised to see how many things rely on Chinese supply, such as pharmaceuticals. Even if a product isn't exported in a finished form from China, vast amounts of our low-…

Next some ex AWS engineer will quit Amazon to make a startup disrupting the supply chain industry with Shuffle Sharded Supply Chains.

Gotta limit that blast radius after all.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#132

Post by bluGill »

geophile wrote: post #86
bluGill wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be so pessimistic. I'm from the USA: we might be divided (and people like you are pushing the divide!), but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. There just isn't a collective goal pushing us all in one direction. Overall I think it is a good thing. Only by many diverse opinions and goals from many different people can we try everything and see what really works out.

> but we still have the ability to get things done when we want to. Please provide examples. - We used to be able to build Hoover Dam. Now it takes literally years to pass a bill to maintain our highways. - Do I need to remind you what a joke Infrastructure Week has become? - How are those gun violence stats? Number 1 in the world at something, at least. - The fastest-growing approach to paying for medical bills, in…

Take a look at are highways. Despite constant complaints about them being in trouble, we build a lot of them including many bridges. Take a look at your city there is someplace in the metro area they are building something big.

Fasting growing doesn't mean much. Most people have insurance which covers everything. Yes there are too many people on the edges who don't have it, but most people do and don't need gofundme (I suspect some of them have a gofundme anyway as a way to raise money because they can)

Sure we don't do massive society wide projects, but that is because we don't need them. That doesn't mean we can't.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#133

Post by paulgb »

rimliu wrote: post #122
cycrutchfield wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not too farfetched if you read a lot of news and see what is going on in other countries that are affected.

Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.

Ironically, when I considered the likely outcomes, the one that convinced me to stock up on food was not actual supply chain distruptions (which I see as possible but fairly unlikely), but that mass hording will lead to shortages (which I see as very likely).

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#134

Post by dfsegoat »

natch wrote: post #110
dfsegoat wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find this to be pretty alarmist. "If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit. The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1]. The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread). The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually i…

>most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms Where did you hear this? Why would these people even be tested, much less diagnosed, if they are not showing symptoms?

See 1.

It's Because they were evacuated e.g. from Cruise ships with other symptomatic patients, and were quarantined + tested, it's a CDC standard protocol [2]. They even put one of them down the street from me as we speak [3]

1 - https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/quality/15th-us-corona...

2 - https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2020/posttravel-eval...

3 - https://www.pressdemocrat.com/news/10751105-181/sonoma-count...

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#135

Post by earenndil »

cycrutchfield wrote: post #127
rimliu wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of that's going is overreacting people hoarding supplies.

Precisely. Which causes supply shortages, and then you can't buy what you need. The whole point is to be ahead of the crowds.

So basically a bank run but with naturally (not artificially) limited resources. Great...

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#136

Post by allovernow »

dfsegoat wrote: post #97
allovernow wrote: post #18

This is very likely to overwhelm not just medical infrastructure, but shut down supply chains for basic necessities for months. If the pandemic hits, most businesses will shutter, just like in China. It is prudent to stock up now for 1-2 months of cheap, non- perishable foods like rice and beans (complete protein together) at a minimum. There's just no excuse not to now if you make a tech salary - a couple hundred do…

I find this to be pretty alarmist. "If the pandemic hits" ... the virus has already hit. The WHO itself has backed off the Pandemic classification [1]. The virus has an overall 98% survival rate, and most diagnosed cases in the US, are not actually showing any symptoms (which itself is a cause for concern re: spread). The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse. The flu kills between 26,000 and 52,000 annually i…

>The annual Flu, MERS and SARS were far far worse

This is NOT TRUE. I urge you to stop relying on the news and look at the literature that is being published in real time. I don't have time for a full response but 15% of cases require ICU care to survive. There are less than 100k ICU beds in the U.S. and the virus spreads 2-5x (R0 estimates from 3 up to 8 depending on source) more readily than SARS or MERS or the 1918 Spanish flu.

Now is the time to be alarmed. The media is behind, for understandable reasons, do not rely on them when in 2020 you have access to the same sources they do. The literature being publishes is almost universally grave. At this point anyone minimizing ncov by comparing it to regular flu is being irresponsible.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#138

Post by ryan-allen »

A few weeks of super boring food, in case of supply chain disruptions and the inevitable panic and wholesale stripping of food by panicky people.

Water and power will be fine, a gaggle of soccer mom's buying out the whole supermarket is more likely depending on how the media portrays the problem.

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#139

Post by atarian »

rp00 wrote: post #73
gambiting wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently even though it's unlikely to kill you, it's still likely to leave you with long lasting damage, so no, I think I'd rather try as hard as possible to avoid catching it in the first place.

Yeah heart damage. No thanks.

Do you have anything to back that up? According to a study published last week:

>There were a few interstitial mononuclear inflammatory infiltrates, but no other substantial damage in the heart tissue

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2...

Re: Ask HN: How are you preparing for COVID-19 disruptions?

#140

Post by CalRobert »

beachy wrote: post #57

By not having kids. Joking, but although we are well prepared for isolation (work mostly from home, live in the countryside in one of the remotest countries in the world, have off-grid solar and 3 rainwater tanks and could probably forage enough to live for a long time from fishing and gathering), all of that is undone by having a school aged kid. That means unavoidable contact with a wide group of other kids, from a…

We are in a similar situation (cottage in a fairly isolated plot in Ireland, 100% remote work) but the toddler is quite the transmission vector.
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