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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#711

Post by rococode »

walkon wrote: post #692
mdszy wrote: post #562

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A "fun distraction"? That's some of the most psycopathic shit I've seen on this site, ngl.

Indeed. Hopefully he didn't mean "fun distraction" in a positive way and was trying to convey it was interesting to watch develop. Especially considering he has friends in the area. > in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan

Yeah uh, poor choice of words on my part, I guess that's why I'm not a writer. I have a bad tendency to use "fun" as "interesting" rather than "enjoyable", should probably be more careful about that..

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#712

Post by iso1210 »

_wldu wrote: post #582
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

I'm not concerned at all about getting the virus or having an outbreak in my community. That's part of life and we'll deal with it if it happens. But I am concerned that people may start panicking and become irrational. There's so much fake news out there about this. People will be panicked into buying all the food they can (whether they need it or not) and stay at home. Sort of like a snow storm forecast but worse.…

> There's so much fake news out there about this

This is a key part of what makes this case so much more worse than SARS

Worth noting SARS started later in the year too

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#713

Post by vikramkr »

rogy wrote: post #277
dahdum wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

on a side note, i have a week of PTO booked in tokyo then a week in kyoto/osaka, leaving friday. do you think its safe to travel?

CDC has japan at a level 2 alert.

Why are you going to japan/what do you want to do there? If it's not essential for you to go, then it's probably an unnecessary risk. With how quickly the disease is spreading, 2 weeks is a long time for things to get worse, and there's always the risk of you becoming a vector for disease so it's more than just your own health to worry about in terms of safety.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/alert/coronavirus-japan

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#714

Post by jbms »

34679 wrote: post #553
socialdemocrat wrote: post #371

I hope Americans will be fine but I fear it will get bad with the chaotic and ineffective leadership of Donald Trump combined with a privatized and highly individualized health care system. The American idea that health care is a privilege you have to pay for will hit a brick wall when you deal with a pandemic which does not give a shit about how rich or poor you are. With a minimalistic welfare state, lower class pe…

>With a minimalistic welfare state The US spends nearly 20% of GDP on welfare. More (as %GDP) than Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, Israel, Switzerland, and many others. In terms of total spending, it's #2 in the world. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_...

How much of that 20% goes to pay malpractice insurance and lawsuits?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#715

Post by hempti »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #359
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

> those same authoritarian governments are the ones who played down the threat, lied, covered up to save face, imprisoned whistle-blowers, and refused to let international experts in. I'm scared that it will become a lot worse than that. The pandemic gives them a real-life stress test and lessons to harden the surveillance state and further improve technical controls and tweak the technology to become more effective.…

So thats how panic looks like.

Great.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#716

Post by imsesaok »

nabla9 wrote: post #538

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTii…

Singapore is literally touching the equator, and the coronavirus there keeps spreading. Local transmission has outnumbered imported cases a while ago. Temperature & humidity really isn't going to help.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#717

Post by hempti »

seppin wrote: post #648
simonh wrote: post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was an explosion at a virology lab in Koltsovo in September last year. There were no reported infections as a result and no apparent cases of Coronavirus or anything like it in the area or any established link with Wuhan, but apparently actual evidence isn't required for some people to come to all sorts of conclusions.

> There was an explosion at a virology lab Why are conspiracy theories so irresistible to so many people?

I knew a ex-friend in school a few years back. He has schizophrenia.

He tells you that he knows people in the chines government and other stuff.

You know what the problem here is? You just don't know who is posting.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#718

Post by ptero »

oefrha wrote: post #698
ptero wrote: post #672

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To add to your point, if one is worried and wants a face mask, in the US, right now, they can make effective masks in a few minutes using some gauze (cheap and plentiful in pretty much any US pharmacy), tape, a stapler and a few ribbons. While this may not be beautiful and might be slightly less effective than a standard surgical mask, it should be good enough unless one is spending significant time inside with infec…

Surgical masks are three-layered with an outer layer that’s waterproof and an inner layer that stops microbes. Pretty sure your makeshift gauze mask would be largely useless at stopping anything. (Source: Family member who worked in the operating theater for 30+ years.)

> Pretty sure your makeshift gauze mask would be largely useless at stopping anything.

That's a pretty bold statement. As someone who grew up in a less-well-off part of the world where medical supplies were not always available I have personally seen makeshift masks made and used by both doctors (rarely) and visiting relatives (more frequently).

The key problem with homemade masks is durability -- they do fail much quicker than a professional surgical mask that lasts many hours. But then, unless you are a medical professional, you do not need to wear them for hours. Wearing one in the open air environment is almost always an overkill.

First link that comes for me (below), when Googling for evidence, seems to indicate that homemade masks in some small trial were worse than professional but still pretty decent (1 hour with homemade ~ 3 hours with professional mask), although I barely skimmed it and might have misunderstood the results.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258525804_Testing_t...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#719

Post by ddxxdd »

wst_ wrote: post #706
stef25 wrote: post #581

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They do stop you from breathing in contaminated particles, from spreading them when coughing / sneezing and they stop you touching your face with contaminated hands. They aren't perfect because you still need proper technique when removing them and they "leak" along the sides etc. Still better than nothing, especially in crowded places.

They won't help you at all. All they do is creating false sense of safety. Viruses are too small and will go through the mask anyway. Also they may protect half of your face against your hands but they won't protect other half, say, against rubbing your eyes. They may help you to minimize the spread if you are already sick, sneezing and coughing. Droplets are big enough to be stopped by mask. This is actually the rea…

Even a regular surgical mask that doesn't have the effectiveness of the N95 can stop water droplets (as you said) and hence, it can stop viruses.

The key insight, though, is that water droplets carry viruses; viruses can travel through masks, but they can't travel by themselves without hitching a ride on a water droplet.

This is why flu season is during the cold winter, when there isn't enough heat to instantly evaporate the moisture in the air. And this is why even a regular surgical mask can offer some protection for a healthy wearer.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#720

Post by jakeinspace »

cm2187 wrote: post #392
wisty wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7 times is quite a lot more. That's like saying a Porsche is a bit more than a Toyota.

7 times a minuscule number may still be a minuscule number. A 30yo male has a 0.18% probability to die that year. It's a small enough number that it is irrational to worry about it [1]. [1] https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

But a .2% mortality rate from COVID-19 means that if you're in your 20s and catch it, your odds of dying this year will have more than doubled! You think that's not worth worrying about? On a global scale that is millions of potential deaths beyond the prior statistical expectation.
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