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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#701

Post by electriclove »

t0mislav wrote: post #339
01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

Happened yesterday in my company. :( Big tech company, 2000+ people, central Europe. First registered patient with COVID-19 in my country is from company I'm working for. We all received notice to work from home. It will be huge test now for remote work. I bet lot of people doesn't even know how to connect from home. (people from administration etc)

Which company? I hope we can US companies be proactive about this and not wait for someone to be infected.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#702

Post by monkeynotes »

_wldu wrote: post #582
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

I'm not concerned at all about getting the virus or having an outbreak in my community. That's part of life and we'll deal with it if it happens. But I am concerned that people may start panicking and become irrational. There's so much fake news out there about this. People will be panicked into buying all the food they can (whether they need it or not) and stay at home. Sort of like a snow storm forecast but worse.…

We don't really have enough facts to be certain of anything, the uncertainty is what causes people to respond aggressively and worry about worst case. What we do know is death rates are around 2% which is a legitimate concern.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#703

Post by rustymonday »

infinity0 wrote: post #519
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries. There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did…

I don't know how you could conclude they did not fuck up when they imprisoned doctors who blew the whistle on the outbreak.

That's not to say other countries will fare much better. But China had by far the best chance at containment, and they blew it. And the rest of the world has to deal with the fallout.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#704

Post by mishac »

whoevercares wrote: post #662
heartbeats wrote: post #654

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but if 2% of all the Chinese die that's going to mess their economy up real good. Considering the whole thing is a house of cards, I'm bullish on the coronavirus.

For the virus the biggest challenge is if it survives the weather. If it’s in the same family as SARS, summer will kill it. The window is closing and My bet is it won’t have chance to infect more than 1M people within China. Btw I think 1M infected Chineses are bad enough to bring the economy down seriously, let alone 2% died of the whole population (280M dead people? Oh lord)

that would be 28M, not 280M (Which is still a huge number, obviously)

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#705

Post by swsieber »

giarc wrote: post #649
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

>extremely long incubation periods with airborne transmission without symptoms 2 out of the 3 things in this sentence are not true. Incubation period is not extremely long, it's quite a normal length of time for a respiratory virus. There has been no airborne transmission. And I would say the jury is out on asymptomatic transmission.

There has been research done showing the virus load is the same between asymptomatic and symptomatic carriers.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#706

Post by wst_ »

stef25 wrote: post #581
trengorilla wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand the masks are utterly useless against this anyway.

They do stop you from breathing in contaminated particles, from spreading them when coughing / sneezing and they stop you touching your face with contaminated hands. They aren't perfect because you still need proper technique when removing them and they "leak" along the sides etc. Still better than nothing, especially in crowded places.

They won't help you at all. All they do is creating false sense of safety. Viruses are too small and will go through the mask anyway. Also they may protect half of your face against your hands but they won't protect other half, say, against rubbing your eyes.

They may help you to minimize the spread if you are already sick, sneezing and coughing. Droplets are big enough to be stopped by mask. This is actually the reason why surgeons are wearing masks in the first place - not to contaminate the patient.

Unless we are talking about something more advanced. Like above mentioned N95.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#707

Post by rurp »

burgerquizz wrote: post #303

Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for investing? The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower those next days. I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost Average? Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?

You're never going to get a useful answer to a question like this. If the market is efficient, which is a good default assumption, it's already factored in a weighted average of possible outcomes.

Anybody who can reliably spot inefficiencies in the market is too busy making ridiculous amounts of money to respond on HN.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#708

Post by kpennell »

burgerquizz wrote: post #303

Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for investing? The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower those next days. I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost Average? Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?

I'm only betting small amounts and money I could lose....but I bet a 6 month put option using robinhood app on SPY and VTI and it's ready made me a good chunk of cash.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#709

Post by starfallg »

infinity0 wrote: post #519
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

The recent explosion in cases in South Korea, Italy and Iran would seem to suggest that in fact perhaps the officials in Wuhan did not fuck up handling the early part of the epidemic, at least much more so that the officials in these other countries. There are some indications of officials playing down the threat and lying, but this was also reversed quickly by higher levels of the same authoritarian government. Did…

If the Wuhan authorities quarantined everybody that traced back to attending the mass dinners at the same early stage in the same way that the Italian and South Korean authorities are doing now, then the people infected in Hubei be at 60,000 or so now.

The quarantine came in too little too late to control the situation in Wuhan, and only helped to contain the virus in other provinces of China, not fully contain it.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#710

Post by slowmovintarget »

stef25 wrote: post #581
trengorilla wrote: post #566

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From what I understand the masks are utterly useless against this anyway.

They do stop you from breathing in contaminated particles, from spreading them when coughing / sneezing and they stop you touching your face with contaminated hands. They aren't perfect because you still need proper technique when removing them and they "leak" along the sides etc. Still better than nothing, especially in crowded places.

The N95 masks require training, and they're not for everyone. It is possible for young children to suffocate because their lungs are not strong enough to pull air through (it takes some effort).

I have asthma, and even a few hours of wearing a procedural mask, let alone an N95 mask are very taxing. Maybe for brief periods in public... But sweat transmitted by hand onto a surface is enough. Sewage in a building is enough to infect residents that don't otherwise encounter each other.

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