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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#641

Post by boring_twenties »

toyg wrote: post #605
boring_twenties wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US we have an additional problem that 2 weeks of hospitalization means certain bankruptcy for many people (myself included). So it might be rather difficult to get people to voluntarily show up for tests and such.

This is the sort of thing one would worry about in developing countries. It's so sad that it's an issue in one of the richest countries on the planet.

Not just sad, but terrifying.

Imagine you have no insurance, had contact with a coronavirus case, and are now feeling ill. What do you do?

If you do the right thing, you're looking at a 100% chance of having your financial life permanently destroyed.

If you just stay home and ride it out, it looks like you've got an 80% or so (correct me if I'm wrong?) chance of being perfectly fine in a week or two.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#642

Post by notacoward »

senordevnyc wrote: post #559
nabla9 wrote: post #538

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTii…

You’re projecting a lot more certainty than the experts have about that: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happ... Additionally, even if there is seasonality, it may be that this has already spread too far to die out completely and cases will rise again in the northern hemisphere toward the end of 2020.

And what about the southern hemisphere? In addition to any suffering that might occur there, that also creates a huge reservoir from which the northern hemisphere can^H^H^Hwill be reinfected. And that's assuming that seasonality is even a factor for COVID-19, which is far from certain. A change of season might provide a temporary respite for some countries, but that's not the same as the pandemic fizzling out.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#643

Post by mcgrath_sh »

ng7j5d9 wrote: post #571

It's already been established that hosting the Olympics in the current fashion is generally a money loser for the host city. All of those resources expended to build state-of-the-art facilities, housing, transportation, etc...with rosy ideas of how they might be repurposed after the Olympics....which generally don't come to fruition. And that's when the Olympics actually occur, and the host city is able to gain some…

The LA Olympics are, from what I recall from a Bill Simmons podcast[0], going to be one of the cheapest to host in history. Salt Lake City also continues to use most venues from the 2002 games[1].

Some of the highlights from the podcast on the 2028 LA Olympics:

* Only major construction that is occurring is an upgraded temporary track in the Coliseum, renovation on USC’s swimming arena, and building a train line to the airport (which, IIRC, was in the long term plans already and is just being re-prioritized). The track from the Coliseum will be broken down and split among various high schools who can benefit.

* There are some additional temporary structures going up, such as bleachers for beach volleyball.

* The LA games are doing what you suggested and are using existing venues for almost everything. UCLA dorms are going to be the Olympic Village and USC dorms will host media. USC, UCLA, MLS, NFL, and NHL/NBA arenas will be used to host various events. There is no brand new permanent construction.

[0] https://m.soundcloud.com/the-bill-simmons-podcast/mayor-eric...

[1] https://www.deseret.com/2017/2/4/20605641/utah-s-secret-sauc...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#644

Post by Gene_Parmesan »

boring_twenties wrote: post #633
Gene_Parmesan wrote: post #611

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, if it hits here in a big way something is going to have to happen with this. Whether you're in a hospital for a 2 week quarantine, or laid up in bed for 2 weeks because you're sick -- either way you're going to have 2 weeks where you aren't working. Beyond that, if it REALLY hits here, you're going to have entire businesses shut down temporarily. I saw a CDC estimate that if it goes pandemic, we should expect…

Either way you're going to have 2 weeks where you aren't working, but in one of the ways you also have a $100,000+ bill. I can survive 2 weeks without work, but I simply can't pay a bill like that no matter what I do.

This is why I said they're going to have to do something. When quarantines are imposed there is going to have to be some national consideration paid to these questions.

We are talking about quarantines. In other words, forced. Containing the virus as much as possible is well within the sphere of national security concerns. I don't know what the answer is, but if the CDC, HHS, and the government writ large are going to be serious about containing it, they are going to have to come up with some sort of solution that most definitely does not discourage people from self-reporting illness, and also doesn't bankrupt the populace.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#645

Post by TLightful »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

"A fun distraction" ... honestly gobsmacked.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#646

Post by lisper »

DanBC wrote: post #385
lisper wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

I don't know about you but I'm bombarded every year with campaigns to get people immunised, and the meetings I go to talk about availability of the vaccine for the public, and for healthcare professionals, and how many professionals have been vaccinated so far and how we can ethically increase that number, and on top of that every year for the past however long in the English NHS there's been a lot of talk about wint…

Fair enough, but there is nonetheless a lot more hand-wringing about covid-19 than there is about seasonal flu despite the fact that the total number of covid cases is still less than the number of annual flu deaths.

Covid is very serious and we should not be complacent about it. But I think it's important to keep some perspective, especially since we seem to be on the brink of shutting down the entire global economy.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#647

Post by gnulinux »

pvaldes wrote: post #632
gnulinux wrote: post #590

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human coronaviruses are usually just common cold, so there was no need to make them before.

Maybe we should try having more common colds... In wonder if that would help to create resistance.

That's a hypothesis why young children aren't affected by COVID-19, maybe they had more exposure to related viruses due to school. Currently, no reported death for children; but mortality rate is significantly higher for 50+.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#648

Post by seppin »

simonh wrote: post #472
Hoasi wrote: post #451

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> IMHO, it's from Koltsovo Why do you think it comes from Koltsovo, in Russia?

There was an explosion at a virology lab in Koltsovo in September last year. There were no reported infections as a result and no apparent cases of Coronavirus or anything like it in the area or any established link with Wuhan, but apparently actual evidence isn't required for some people to come to all sorts of conclusions.

> There was an explosion at a virology lab

Why are conspiracy theories so irresistible to so many people?

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#649

Post by giarc »

rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

>extremely long incubation periods with airborne transmission without symptoms

2 out of the 3 things in this sentence are not true. Incubation period is not extremely long, it's quite a normal length of time for a respiratory virus. There has been no airborne transmission. And I would say the jury is out on asymptomatic transmission.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#650

Post by lisper »

rixrax wrote: post #211
lisper wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seasonal flu kills hundreds of thousands of people every year and we barely talk about that.

Yes it does. After we have vaccinated vast amounts of global population with flu vaccines that mostly work. Try flu without vaccination and potentially 10x mortality rate: CoVid-19.

Maybe. We don't actually know how many mild or asymptomatic cases of covid are out there, and so we don't know what the mortality rate is. 2% is an upper bound, but almost certainly not the true mortality rate.

I'm not saying that we should not take covid very seriously. I'm just saying that before we allow it to shut down the global economy we ought to maintain some perspective on the magnitude of the risks society already faces year-in and year-out.

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