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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#551

Post by bitreality »

bognition wrote: post #542
nabla9 wrote: post #538

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTii…

Yeah its pretty wild to compare the rates of infection and mortality inside main land china with the rest of the world. The high infection/death rates aren't showing up in the rest of the world. The interesting follow question is why? It could be a number of things, my guess is a sampling issue. Given how secretive the Chinese govt is we'll likely never know.

You're grossly misinformed. The China outbreak was so strong initially because they had no idea what they were dealing with. The spread and infection is invisible for weeks. There are many people spreading Coronavirus as we speak without knowing a thing.

Korea, Iran and Italy all have major outbreaks which only revealed themselves this week, but likely began 2-3 weeks prior. Iran has clearly no idea how many cases are in its country, its numbers are 15 deaths and <100 cases. That's over 15% death rate. Makes no sense compared to all other reported number, their real total cases are likely over 1000.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#552

Post by trengorilla »

bognition wrote: post #542
nabla9 wrote: post #538

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTii…

Yeah its pretty wild to compare the rates of infection and mortality inside main land china with the rest of the world. The high infection/death rates aren't showing up in the rest of the world. The interesting follow question is why? It could be a number of things, my guess is a sampling issue. Given how secretive the Chinese govt is we'll likely never know.

There have been nearly 300 new cases in South Korea in the last day. Give it time buddy.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#553

Post by 34679 »

socialdemocrat wrote: post #371

I hope Americans will be fine but I fear it will get bad with the chaotic and ineffective leadership of Donald Trump combined with a privatized and highly individualized health care system. The American idea that health care is a privilege you have to pay for will hit a brick wall when you deal with a pandemic which does not give a shit about how rich or poor you are. With a minimalistic welfare state, lower class pe…

>With a minimalistic welfare state

The US spends nearly 20% of GDP on welfare. More (as %GDP) than Australia, Canada, The Netherlands, Israel, Switzerland, and many others. In terms of total spending, it's #2 in the world.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_social_...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#554

Post by silvestrov »

hatenberg wrote: post #456
silvestrov wrote: post #316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why are chickens so scared of everything? It is because if they miss the fox a single time they are dead. If they run away 999 times without needing to, it's no big deal. Making a lot of noise so other chickens run away too helps the herd. You can laugh at the chickens, but the chickens you laugh at, are the kind of animals who survives. The same are true for wolves: they run away from humans because they are too gre…

Except that humans are much less binary than fight or flight and capable of nuanced reactions so the entire comparison is baloney. There is a cost to living in a constant state of fear and preparation, the opportunity costs are massive.

In many aspects humans are more capable, but not all.

Humans don't have to look at an animal for a few days to figure out if it's a mouse or a fox.

But for people infected with the Coronavirus we are not more capable: the first 2-14 days a person is infected with the Coronavirus we cannot see it. Only medical tests can, and we can't test everybody around us.

So the smartest might be to run away 100 times to avoid the single person who is infected.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#555

Post by mlrtime »

scruple wrote: post #183
dis-sys wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Multiple doctors in their late 20s or early 30s have died from the coronavirus. If you are under 18 and have good health, then you are pretty safe.

I've been trying to find mortality rates for the very young. Infants and toddlers. I haven't been finding much information. Is this being reported? Having twins under a year at home has somehow managed to become an even more stressful event...

0 Fatalities 0-9 years old so far.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#556

Post by bitreality »

aazaa wrote: post #550

This same tough decision-making process will play out thousands of times in the next few months. Any event that draws an international crowd poses an elevated risk. You can't know where people have been or what kind of screening process has been applied. If you're planning on attending a tech conference with an international crowd, now is the time to reconsider. The possibility of asymptomatic transmission through ca…

The disease has spread in places like Singapore and Thailand, which are warmer in February than most Northern Hemisphere cities are in summer. The notion that everything will just die down come Spring is blindingly optimistic.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#557

Post by gdubs »

dunkelheit wrote: post #387
asiachick wrote: post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

By now we know much more about the virus and the threat is evident so the situation is not really comparable to the start of the outbreak. I guess a lot of "what if it started in another country" scenarios can be debated, ranging from "another government wouldn't cover up the real situation so the virus would be quickly contained" to "western governments wouldn't have the balls to quickly enact proper quarantine meas…

I the 21st century we should be able to do better then speculate and have a clear idea of what the proper response is to a virus like this or any other.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#558

Post by bitreality »

alisonatwork wrote: post #527
cylinder wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very easy to lock people down. have you ever been in New York before a declared snow day? How about Houston just before a big hurricane? Absolute ghost towns. People are actually eager to be told to stay home and not go to work. They don't have to be forced. Especially if it's for their safety.

Many parts of China have been on lockdown for over 4 weeks now. Hundreds of millions of people have still not returned to work. I am not sure a lockdown of this scale will be accepted in other countries.

Yeah exactly. It's one thing to board up the windows for a day or two, a completely different story to do it for a month+. People get restless and impatient. They start working each other up about perceived ineffectiveness of the lockdown.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#559

Post by senordevnyc »

nabla9 wrote: post #538

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer. Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome. transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTii…

You’re projecting a lot more certainty than the experts have about that: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/what-happ...

Additionally, even if there is seasonality, it may be that this has already spread too far to die out completely and cases will rise again in the northern hemisphere toward the end of 2020.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#560

Post by saiya-jin »

bitreality wrote: post #556
aazaa wrote: post #550

This same tough decision-making process will play out thousands of times in the next few months. Any event that draws an international crowd poses an elevated risk. You can't know where people have been or what kind of screening process has been applied. If you're planning on attending a tech conference with an international crowd, now is the time to reconsider. The possibility of asymptomatic transmission through ca…

The disease has spread in places like Singapore and Thailand, which are warmer in February than most Northern Hemisphere cities are in summer. The notion that everything will just die down come Spring is blindingly optimistic.

How do those place fare with regular flu? Parents optimism comes from the notion that in colder climates, there is almost no flu during warm months.
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