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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#531

Post by littlestymaar »

tasogare wrote: post #508
littlestymaar wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Look at Italy right now. > Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same…

> I'm French, and we've been lucky so far, but I expect chaos when it's going to start. The government has long lost all political legitimity here, and people absolutely distrust them, so I don't think they will not peacefully comply to government attempt to limit the propagation. Lot of French follows the rules. They will complain (a lot!) about and break them here or there but I expect most real French to mostly fo…

I'm not sure if it's just my imagination, but your comment, and especially the “real French” part makes me uneasy.

You aren't implying anything racist are you?

BTW I way less worried about thugs than about antivax mums and other fakemeds enthusiasts believing about conspiracy theory involving “big pharma”.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#532

Post by nkrisc »

Barrin92 wrote: post #51
01100011 wrote: post #42

I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. There is nearly zero reason for me to show up at work. I can do nearly everything from home, often better. At work, I'm in a large, open building surrounded by thousands of people. Am I overreacting? I know there's a good chance we're all going to get COVID-19, but if I can delay it a bit, I lessen the hit…

>I'm curious how other folks who work at large tech shops in the valley feel about working from home for a while. Am in the UK and not the US but given that I'm healthy and relatively young I don't really see the point. This disease is scary in the aggregate, i.e it imposes huge economic costs. The average case of it is basically having flu symptoms, and I never stayed at home unless I got sick during bad flu seasons…

The point of staying in even if you're young and healthy is not for your benefit, but so you don't walk around spreading the virus everywhere to people who aren't as young and healthy.

It's not about you, but it can be hard to think about people other than one's self.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#533

Post by dredmorbius »

I'm in the middle of writing a general update / reassessment (usual caveat: nonexpert space alien cat on the Internets).

1. The wider spread is concerning.

2. Institutional trust, capabilities, and competence in numerous countries is a key factor. Notably in Iran, though also North Korea (its zero case reports is increasingly implausible), and Africa (many ties to China, no cases outside Egypt's sole case).

3. Testing and monitoring are critical, but limited. Keeping ahead of spreads, testing and screening protocols, and back-tracing community transmissions to a confirmed source, will be key to limiting further outbreaks.

4. Second-order impacts are likely to be far greater than the medical consequences, all told. China's CO2 emissions are down by a quarter, not because a quarter of the population is medically impacted, but because preventive efforts, including transport, work, and education shut-downs, have tremendously reduced total activity. Reported cases are 0.005% of the population, deaths 0.0002%. It's concerns (valid), not medical severity itself, which are driving these impacts. Recognising that the present costs are well worth a potential future avoided risk are well-worth paying is a message that needs to be effectively communicated.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#534

Post by daanavitch »

mech1234 wrote: post #506

Referencing the http://coronavirus-realtime.com/ website, the graph of the number of infections over time is suspiciously non-exponential right now. I think China and the rest of the world are both struggling to collect data on confirmed cases.

That whole website is an iframe with donation buttons and ads overlaid. The original url is https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#535

Post by jkaplowitz »

paublyrne wrote: post #438
Terretta wrote: post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it comes to authority and how people comply with the rules, France and Germany are more different than China and the US. How so?

Can't comment on France, and of course it's a generalization, but in Germany people love to follow the rules. Just watch how people cross the road without looking left or right, but obeying only the light. Sometimes other pedestrians will shout at you if you walk across the road when the light isn't green.

That isn't the experience in noticing here as a tourist in Berlin, where locals seem to cross against the light quite often. But yes, I realize Berlin is not the typical German experience.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#536

Post by mech1234 »

daanavitch wrote: post #534
mech1234 wrote: post #506

Referencing the http://coronavirus-realtime.com/ website, the graph of the number of infections over time is suspiciously non-exponential right now. I think China and the rest of the world are both struggling to collect data on confirmed cases.

That whole website is an iframe with donation buttons and ads overlaid. The original url is https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

Yep, and they come up higher on the search results in bing and google. Not sure if I really recommend them, but their dang domain name sure is a hell of a lot easier to remember. Maybe I would recommend them on that fact alone- in a public health crisis, easy access to critical information is important.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#538

Post by nabla9 »

Coronavirus will burn itself out in May when temperatures rise. Just like common flu virus, increasing sunlight and humidity will stop the spread of the virus during summer.

Source: professor John Nicholls a clinical professor in pathology at the University of Hong Kong and expert on coronaviruses had a conference call where he explained most likely outcome.

transcript here: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/puzmZFQGRTiiquwLa6tT-g/confere...

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#539

Post by graeme »

rogy wrote: post #277
dahdum wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

on a side note, i have a week of PTO booked in tokyo then a week in kyoto/osaka, leaving friday. do you think its safe to travel?

Booked when? Even if booked tomorrow, you’d be there two weeks.

Consider Korea. Two weeks ago, 28 cases, same as they had has for weeks. The current outbreak in confirmed cases only began growing one week ago, on Feb 19th.

The country is now entering lockdown, and some countries are banning flights from Korea.

If your flight leaves, say, tomorrow, you risk the same happening by the time you leave.

If it leaves further in the future, you have the good fortune of being able to wait and observe. If it gets worse you maybe able to get refunds on flights/hotels. Either directly or via cc. (As flights may be cancelled)

If it gets better, you can keep it. But if you leave now you’re taking a gamble you won’t have a lockdown before the end of it. This is moving fast, and japan is reporting new cases daily.

Note: the risk profile of being in a place is different from living in a place. If you live in a place you can just stay home. If you travel you have all manner of dependencies, and none of your usual supplies.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#540

Post by _1qd4 »

burgerquizz wrote: post #303

Are the effect of the coronavirus on the stock market could be opportunity for investing? The SP500 went down 8% this past 4 days. I'm wondering if that will go lower those next days. I have a bit amount of money on the side, I didn't know where to invest. Would now be a good opportunity to lump sum all the money, or would you Dollar Cost Average? Anyone else with the same dilemma, and would have more arguments?

Dollar cost average is your best bet since things are uncertain right now and you, as a retail investor, don't have up-to-date information and can't act very quickly.

Your best investments are things that people can't say "no" to; infrastructure and utilities. Banks, railways, power companies, mining companies, and shipping are all things that reasonably hold their value no matter the economic circumstances.

You could take a gamble on a pharmaceutical outfit, but if these companies are chasing a corona virus vaccine, they will probably take on a lot of debt to achieve it, which may bite them later.

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