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Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

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Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#521

Post by Symmetry »

tanilama wrote: post #298
allovernow wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is not an event for petty emotions. Also in high likelihood those who are there on behalf of the CDC are keeping quiet in order not to be kicked out. But you bet there's espionage going on. The Chinese government doesn't mess around. And in this case it'd be justified. You're talking about the rest of the world at stake. This is no place for cover-ups and minimization. Transparency is critical.

Looking at CDC's response so far: 1. Testing only 400 cases across the whole country. 2. Defective test kits which will only be fixed until Mid March 3. Hawaii now asking ask Japan(which by itself is doing a horrible job at handling the situation) for test kits because they have none, and test 0 people so far. Doesn't seem first world to me honestly. Might have South Korea gives them some lessons as how to deal with…

We had been making due with Lab Developed Tests (LDTs). They work fine but they're only allowed to be used at the lab that developed them and we're going to need tests that can be run at hospitals.

The CDC can legally issue emergency tests that can be distributed the way we need to. But for these to be used the FDA had to issue an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). And that couldn't happen until the Health and Human Services Department (HHS) declared this was an emergency. All of which happened.

But When the HHS declared an emergency the situation is legally considered to important for LDTs to be used, which would normally be fine. But the original CDC tests had a reagent that was incorrectly manufactured. That's being fixed but last I heard the working testing kits hadn't been distributed yet.

This is sort of a huge problem because testing for a particular viral RNA sequence isn't especially hard and it should be within the capability of even a large hospital to develop their own tests, though there is a chance they'd mess up the way the CDC did. Our whole bureaucratic structure in the US isn't set up to deal with a new disease emerging quickly and we really need to fix this.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#522

Post by ejolto »

cm2187 wrote: post #354
djmips wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do you know that it's just fatalities in old and sick? If that's the case, I don't understand why many younger people in Wuhan are dying including the whistle blower doctor who was only 33 years old. We don't even know what the disease will do in terms of long term damage to survivors or the possibility of poor immunity and reinfection. I haven't seen any good statistics on the fatality rate vs age.

Because that’s what the numbers published say: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-diseas... Look at the mortality by age table. Also note the mortality rate outside of Wuhan seems to be 0.7%, a bit more than the common flu which I think is around 0.1% but not really a massive deal. I don’t know where these numbers will land ultimately but I can think of many reasons why people with mild symptoms th…

If you are looking at the mortality rate of CORVID-19 by age group you should do the same for the common seasonal flu. The 2018-2019 flu had a mortality rate of 0.0018% in the US for ages 18-49[0]. CORVID-19 is then 0.2%/0.0018% = 111.11 times more deadly for people ages 18-49 than the last seasons flu.

[0] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html 1.8 deaths per 100000 is 0.0018%

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#523

Post by doctorOb »

rogy wrote: post #277
dahdum wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

on a side note, i have a week of PTO booked in tokyo then a week in kyoto/osaka, leaving friday. do you think its safe to travel?

I'm quite literally in the same position as you right now. As long as the CDC doesn't bump their warning up to a level 3, I'm going. The cost of the flight + no refund makes it difficult for some of my party to walk away from. I'm still fairly worried and my company is having me self quarantine for half a month when I get home.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#524

Post by agumonkey »

dpflan wrote: post #484
rococode wrote: post #46

I've been checking for updates on the virus several times a day since it first started being reported in Western media around Jan 20 (in part because it's been a fun distraction, in part because I have friends in Wuhan). I like to think I'm generally an optimist, but I think it's been clear for several weeks now that this is going to have a significant worldwide impact. There are just too many factors in favor of unc…

The timeline on the BNO site is useful, but have you seen this site by Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering that is tracking the cases (confirmed, deaths, recovered)? > https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.h...

do you know an alternate graph source ? this site has had regular issues recently

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#525

Post by stef25 »

DyslexicAtheist wrote: post #492
stef25 wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here in Belgium it's almost impossible to find masks as well, except if you want to pay 70+ EUR https://i.imgur.com/dGd56Ng.png I suspect Asian customers have been plundering online EU shops for a while. Having said that, I don't think it's the responsibility of the WHO to distribute masks to health professionals like your partner.

> Having said that, I don't think it's the responsibility of the WHO to distribute masks to health professionals like your partner. it's the CDC's who acts on advise and recommendations made by the WHO. The WHO has in 2018 warned about a disease X[1], so the CDC and local health ministries would have had 2 years to prioritize and make sure there are enough stocks for PPE in the country. It's not only about the masks…

Hiring practices of elderly care facilities in Croatia aside, I very much doubt that EU hospitals are already short of facemasks at a time when there's less than 500 cases among a population of over 700 million.

That there are no facemasks available to the general public is a result of people plundering the stocks of private businesses.

European disease control agencies aren't even recommending that people wear masks. Until they do and they can't provide any I don't see any failures on their part.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#526

Post by boring_twenties »

dahdum wrote: post #233
distantaidenn wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Living in Tokyo and just returned from Seoul yesterday. It's striking how differently the countries are handling this issue. Korea is pretty much on lockdown -- the government and the population are being quite proactive. Masks everywhere, thermal guns at junctions with high human traffic. Water fountains shut down, etc. Even the airport staff at the eateries were undergoing temperature checks before interacting with…

I’m in Tokyo and having a very different experience than you, nearly everyone on the trains are wearing masks and all customer facing staff I see now. Someone hit the emergency button on the train a few days ago because someone was coughing without one (there was a PSA asking people not to do that). It’s mostly foreigners I see walking around without masks now, but I agree it’s still ramping up. I honestly don’t see…

In the US we have an additional problem that 2 weeks of hospitalization means certain bankruptcy for many people (myself included). So it might be rather difficult to get people to voluntarily show up for tests and such.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#527

Post by alisonatwork »

cylinder wrote: post #455
bitreality wrote: post #345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just wait until it happens on a massive scale, and does not appear to be stopping the spread of the virus. People in the West are going to be tough to keep on lockdown. The entire purpose of lockdowns and quarantines at this point seem to be delaying until a vaccine is ready. This will be hard for the average person to understand, and people think much more critically in the West.

It's very easy to lock people down. have you ever been in New York before a declared snow day? How about Houston just before a big hurricane? Absolute ghost towns. People are actually eager to be told to stay home and not go to work. They don't have to be forced. Especially if it's for their safety.

Many parts of China have been on lockdown for over 4 weeks now. Hundreds of millions of people have still not returned to work. I am not sure a lockdown of this scale will be accepted in other countries.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#528

Post by tremon »

yread wrote: post #331
didericis wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. China's authoritarian government is largely responsible for the severity of the initial outbreak. Their e…

> Their extreme quarantine efforts happened more than a month and a half after the first case was detected I do agree that China and especially Wuhan could have acted faster - perhaps by 2 weeks though not month and a half. 1st December there was a case of pneumonia admitted to a hospital - that happens probably more than millions times a year. After 3 days it was clear that it's a viral pneumonia. That's more severe…

They should have done something - but then again, what?

Well, arresting the doctors that were comparing cases in a group chat seems like a good start.

/s

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#529

Post by honestoHeminway »

bitreality wrote: post #332
littlestymaar wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Look at Italy right now. > Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Sure, but this has nothing to do with authoritarian states vs democracy. You'll find a ton of authoritarian states doing exactly the same…

Here's the thing with Italy. They're the first Western country to get a major outbreak. They're being told to do things and assuming that it will stop the virus. But the truth is, containment does not actually stop the virus. It simply slows it. When or if this hits the US or elsewhere in Europe, and it becomes obvious that despite the quarantine in Italy, the virus still continued to spread, they will question the m…

>In China when the government tells its citizens to do >something, they just do it. They don't ask why. They don't >deliberate on whether it's the correct choice. They simply >follow the directions. In the West, everything is up for >debate. People don't like to be told what to do.

No, they do not. Chinas propaganda machine just tells you they do. That is why china- even with all its measures couldnt clamp down. Behind the waver thin authoritarian theater presented lurks the same chaos as in africa and india.

Re: Tokyo Olympics “looking at a cancellation” if coronavirus not contained

#530

Post by bamboozled »

asiachick wrote: post #268
_nkl1 wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think when this all comes to an end, China will be one of the countries that dealt with the virus the best. Countries without authoritarian governments likely don't have the means to effectively quarantine major cities and shut down massive portions of their economy immediately without major problems arising. Given a couple weeks, sure, but by then it will be too late. It may well seem that way in retrospect. Whe…

Do you really think it will be any different in the USA or Europe? Will the governments ban conventions? Close restaurants and bars? Shut down shopping malls? Or will instead, in the interest of "the economy" (ie, money) keep too light a hand on things. Basically I don't expect the west to be able to react to this any better if it gets big. Their populations are uncontrollable (for mostly good reason) but in this par…

Actually I’m in Japan at the moment and people seem to be taking reasonable precautions without the use of force.

Wearing masks, avoiding crowded places, maintaining good hygiene, staggering work hours, working from home and stocking up on supplies.

I mean, where does this idea come from that people need a dictator or they’re completely lost and as you’re saying, freedom in this case is a bug?

You might find because people have access to free information and good services means they can look after themselves and they just might ?

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